|
Post by tacoman25 on Apr 21, 2009 17:54:29 GMT
Saying seven or eight years is not enough to establish a trend is arguable, but of course you say the first 3 months of 2009 is plenty of time to determine global warming is well on its way back up. Amazing. You ought to note more carefully who posted what. I didn't bring up the quarterly figures - I just responded to them. It's ok if you start with a La Nina year (1999) to use to show it is warming? No it's not - but it does show that short term trends are highly sensitive to the start/end period chosen. Yet if you use 1997 as the start year, it will show Oh oh, it's not fair to include El Nino you say? It's no less logical than your misuse of linear regression to claim it is warming. Again you're mssing the point. Over a short period, if you start with an El nino year and end with a La Nina year, you're almost sure to get a cooling trend. But if you start with a La Nina year you get a warming trend. Lesson 1: Ten years is too short to determine a trend because the it is too sensitive to ENSO (and other) fluctuations. If, however, you start in 1979, say, or 1980, or 1981.. or 1985...or 1988, i.e. a period of at least 20 years, you always get a warming trend. Always!!! It doesn't matter whether you start in an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral year. The trend is always up. Only since the last +PDO phase. If you look at the 20 years from 1957-77, you get a downward trend. This was within the last -PDO phase. In addition, you continue to ignore my point about how if you factor out ENSO from the last ten years, you will still see a flattened trend. So you cannot blame the lack of warming the past 8-12 years on ENSO fluctuation.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Apr 21, 2009 18:31:14 GMT
Again you're mssing the point. Over a short period, if you start with an El nino year and end with a La Nina year, you're almost sure to get a cooling trend. But if you start with a La Nina year you get a warming trend. Lesson 1: Ten years is too short to determine a trend because the it is too sensitive to ENSO (and other) fluctuations. If, however, you start in 1979, say, or 1980, or 1981.. or 1985...or 1988, i.e. a period of at least 20 years, you always get a warming trend. Always!!! It doesn't matter whether you start in an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral year. The trend is always up. Quite correct. Here is a link to a 2005 climate prediction based solely upon the recent past century of data, excluding any changes in effects from assumptions. www.ac.wwu.edu/~dbunny/research/global/predictions.pdfIt shows cooling until about 2040. Compared to the IPCC models this model is far closer tracking actual observations. And for advice to the discussion at hand if you include a few years prior to 2005 it also shows a general warming trend. Trends are made to be broken. Whether its increasing interest rates or global temperatures. One needs to be careful about historical analysis. If you going to do it one has to pay attention to all historical data both long term and short term. I think Easterbrook at least does that though he doesn't answer any of the questions as to why. Ultimately the main political cart of AGW has been an alleged unprecedented and continuing warming via a new found climate forcing. . . .but trend analysis now shows clearly that the models used to push this politically are trash. . . .including apparently a lot of the proxy stuff used to try to make the case for unprecedented warming. For me the straw that broke that camel's back was the northshore Greenland study that shows unequivocally the north pole was nearly ice free 6,000 years ago. . . .or sufficiently ice free to allow arctic storms to shape coastlines Well all that appears to have been put to rest. Missing red dogs, recent cooling consistent with a hundred years of climate change all leaves us with is some models ready for the dustbin. No doubt they will hang around for years to provide some lively discourse; however, IMO, it would be foolish to invest more into them. . . .already probably too much has been invested. No need to spend another dime on them. . . .mount them on some obscure page of the internet and plenty of folks will alert us to whether we approach them or not.
|
|
|
Post by tacoman25 on Apr 25, 2009 18:25:57 GMT
I think it's becoming clear that satellite temperatures will continue their strong downward trend through April.
|
|