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Post by acidohm on Feb 17, 2019 22:12:38 GMT
I am jealous, love a bit of winter, had very little! You can have mine Acid. Send it Moboy!!!
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 18, 2019 0:31:08 GMT
I wonder if the barycenter was doing similar things in 1951/52?
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 18, 2019 0:53:46 GMT
So how much heat would be left in the Pacific after another El Nino? Not a lot?
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 18, 2019 5:03:51 GMT
I think he is dreaming there, the pacific subsurface warm pool is being eroded daily. next big burst of trades will end the delusion I think.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 19, 2019 1:13:51 GMT
Actually, I have El Nino this year and into 2020, so it is not any 'dreaming' here.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 19, 2019 16:28:06 GMT
Actually, I have El Nino this year and into 2020, so it is not any 'dreaming' here. This all fits with the 1976 climate shift actually being the start of the ocean system dumping heat into the atmosphere. It doesn't take a lot of ocean dumping kilojoules of heat to warm the atmosphere and get the global warming alarmists into chicken little mode. The 1degC rise in atmospheric temperatures would create an imperceptible drop in Ocean temperatures. Watching the ocean SSTs for the last few years they seem to have cooled and that heat is what we have seen rushing through the atmosphere to space. If as forecast the next last gasp El Nino (pumping heat into the atmosphere and space), is followed by a strong La Nina - normally a recharge heat cycle, but with the Sun in funk mode as the barycenter is way outside its surface, so no recharge this time. Things could go cold quite rapidly. And yes I have bought a new coat.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 19, 2019 22:52:23 GMT
FWIW, here is the latest from the BoM: ENSO Wrap-Up Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceansTropical Pacific ENSO-neutral, but some recent warming observed The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.
El Niño typically results in below average autumn and winter rainfall for southern and eastern Australia.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed slightly in the past fortnight. In the sub-surface, weak warmth extends down to 175 m depth. Recent weakening of the trade winds in the western Pacific means that further warming of the equatorial Pacific is likely in the coming weeks to months.
Five of eight climate models indicate the central Pacific is likely to reach borderline or weak El Niño levels during autumn, with four models remaining above threshold levels into winter. El Niño predictions made in late summer and early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with some caution.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 20, 2019 0:13:57 GMT
FWIW, here is the latest from the BoM: ENSO Wrap-Up Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceansTropical Pacific ENSO-neutral, but some recent warming observed The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.
El Niño typically results in below average autumn and winter rainfall for southern and eastern Australia.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed slightly in the past fortnight. In the sub-surface, weak warmth extends down to 175 m depth. Recent weakening of the trade winds in the western Pacific means that further warming of the equatorial Pacific is likely in the coming weeks to months.
Five of eight climate models indicate the central Pacific is likely to reach borderline or weak El Niño levels during autumn, with four models remaining above threshold levels into winter. El Niño predictions made in late summer and early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with some caution.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.It's amazing how settled the science is Ratty!
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 23, 2019 5:32:19 GMT
Actually, I have El Nino this year and into 2020, so it is not any 'dreaming' here. Yes I know, I had the same 2019 forecast as well, but I cannot see it, all of my analogs line up with 2010, 2007, 1978, and 1988, all of which were either La Nina or neutral. Every day, the warming in the subsurface us being chewed up, and now it's almost gone. We have now had Westerlies locally here for 24 months in the West Pacific near PNG, and these are almost done. And over the least 7 years a lot of the time it has been the same, and I expect this will change shortly, like it did in 2010. I could be wrong, as I think the La Nina is early if comes this year, perhaps a cool neutral and then a La Nina next year. It also looks like the drought will break shortly here too locally.
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 23, 2019 12:35:45 GMT
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Post by fatjohn1408 on Feb 23, 2019 13:44:10 GMT
I wonder if the barycenter was doing similar things in 1951/52? Straight through the nucleus of the sun. How did 1990/1991 passage look like?
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Post by icefisher on Feb 23, 2019 18:41:13 GMT
Actually, I have El Nino this year and into 2020, so it is not any 'dreaming' here. This all fits with the 1976 climate shift actually being the start of the ocean system dumping heat into the atmosphere. It doesn't take a lot of ocean dumping kilojoules of heat to warm the atmosphere and get the global warming alarmists into chicken little mode. The 1degC rise in atmospheric temperatures would create an imperceptible drop in Ocean temperatures. Watching the ocean SSTs for the last few years they seem to have cooled and that heat is what we have seen rushing through the atmosphere to space. If as forecast the next last gasp El Nino (pumping heat into the atmosphere and space), is followed by a strong La Nina - normally a recharge heat cycle, but with the Sun in funk mode as the barycenter is way outside its surface, so no recharge this time. Things could go cold quite rapidly. And yes I have bought a new coat. I am in complete agreement. The oceans and ice are controlling the climate change we see. I have always remembered your perception many years ago being that heat in the atmosphere is essentially heat headed for space. The CO2 gas effect has some effects but its a small player in the larger scheme of things. When this all started the climate science alarmists had absolutely no clue whatsoever as the contribution of oceans to climate change. If things had proceeded in accordance with their models Al Gore might have deserved the Nobel Prize. But almost immediately the oceans let themselves be known. The first article on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation didn't come until 1996. Not sure when the AMO was first hypothesized but its these things I believe account for at least half and probably 2/3rds or more of observed climate change. I am almost certain that the longer term cycles are a product of ocean current changes and that the forcing on ocean currents is solar heavily modified by sea ice variation. ENSO gets most of the press but ENSO as a phenomena is just one rusty hinge in the ocean that had the largest squeak. Fact is ENSO has a big effect on artisanal fisheries off South Amercia but that wasn't the squeaking hinge. At the time ENSO became an attraction the port of Los Angeles/San Pedro was the home of the most valuable fishing fleet in the world, the tuna purse seine fleet and they fished the entire west coast of the Americas particularly between 30N and 30S and ENSO had dramatic effects on their efforts and where the fish could be located. Same deal for the PDO. The first articles on the PDO outlined how the northwest salmon fishery would thrive and go into decline as salmon migrated between the westcoast of continental US and Alaska over decadal patterns. Today the salmon folks know this well yet the scientific consensus sold to America is climate change is destroying salmon fisheries and thus in need of endangered species classifications when for the most part all that is occurring is what has occurred historically as far back as the data takes us. Overfishing is a concern but the US in most of its regions has excellent federal fishery management regimes, but adjusting fisherman behavior can't fix everything. For climate, evaporation and sea ice extents are highly influenced by ocean currents. Evaporation is what injects heat into the atmosphere and it takes a lot more energy to evaporate cold water. Ice levels are likely influenced by both currents and accumulated heat in the ocean. As ice recedes it promotes more extensive annual refreeze patterns and allows more ocean heat to move into the atmosphere by taking the ice insulating layer off the ocean and warming the arctic atmosphere. As ice fronts advance, more heat is retained in the ocean in the arctic where by far the largest temperature difference is between the atmosphere and the ocean water. Look at annual arctic atmosphere temperatures. Only in a short summer season is the arctic atmosphere warmer than zero centigrade, most of the year it is far below freezing. Ice insulates the movement of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere like an eskimo in an igloo. The lie about albedo changes in the arctic ignores the basic radiation law that the rate of absorption of radiation equals the rate of emission of radiation. Change the albedo and you lower the absorption and lower the emission because high albedo surfaces are less able to emit radiation. Albedo changes the rate of net energy transfer but does not change the equilibrium value that it oscillates around. Golly a rant now and again does work wonders for ones disposition.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 24, 2019 13:31:17 GMT
[ Snip] Golly a rant now and again does work wonders for ones disposition. Crikey! I initially read that as deposition and feared we'd seen the last of you, Ice..
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 24, 2019 20:21:13 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Feb 25, 2019 1:38:05 GMT
Does that look more positive for the IOD?
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