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Post by nautonnier on Aug 24, 2019 14:44:47 GMT
For those of us in the front line for Hurricanes this is good news. For those who are of the Al Gore persuasion they have another effect of high CO2 it _reduces_ the number of hurricanes. Although I have an idea that they may just be la la la la la with fingers in their ears on this one.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 25, 2019 15:55:54 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 25, 2019 20:52:19 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 28, 2019 10:17:16 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2019 13:02:23 GMT
" Total energy released through cloud/rain formation:An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands. Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 1016 cm3/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives 5.2 x 10^19 Joules/day or 6.0 x 10^14 Watts.
This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity – an incredible amount of energy produced!"energi.media/news/noaa-how-much-energy-does-a-hurricane-release/That is per day
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2019 15:10:22 GMT
So to take Roy Spencer's analogy --- currently here in Florida we have hurricane Dorian on path to pass overhead with energy output equivalent of 7.2 megatons of TNT a minute... [ "Let’s use the example of the B83 nuclear weapon, which is considered “the most modern nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal“. The bomb has an energy yield of 1.2 megatons of TNT. The average hurricane releases that much energy every 10 seconds. "] Here is the current 15Z discussion summary from the NHC.NOAA.GOV site with my note in red.... "Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied States later this week and into early next week.
3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH << A low Cat 2 a longer sea track could increase this substantially 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH "www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281459.shtml
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2019 16:59:54 GMT
This could be interesting - I am just in front of the last M as currently shown... key Summary from Discussion.... "Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied States later this week and into early next week.
3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH"www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281510.shtml?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2019 19:16:23 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2019 23:08:39 GMT
It is not possible to tell this far out but it looks like the storm will be turning WNW and crossing at Fort Lauderdale now = this is good news for me but I am afraid that Mr Phydeux may have some problems if the track remains as shown as it could strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico and then cross to NOLA with an approach across Lake Pontchartrain Watch the updates.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 29, 2019 0:21:45 GMT
Stay safe, Naut. Meanwhile, I will prepare a press release:
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 29, 2019 8:08:27 GMT
Stay safe, Naut. Meanwhile, I will prepare a press release: One of the ways to check the Hurricane forecasts is to go to the beach here and see how many TV crews have booked up the hotels and have their talking heads practicing their 'lean into wind and rain while shouting unintelligibly' - it was one of the subjects in the TV meteorology courses.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 29, 2019 8:14:40 GMT
Nice from Joe. If he's right then West Palm Beach gets it and things may not be too exciting here. I will confirm that my generator works this morning that normally ensures the hurricanes miss. All the shops are out of water and flashlights -- who throws away flashlights after a hurricane?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 29, 2019 9:51:49 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 29, 2019 16:32:56 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 30, 2019 10:08:35 GMT
Not looking good for Florida coast around West Palm Beach/Fort Lauderdale at the moment Dorian is slowing but also intensifying (some over excited models are pushing cat 4 or even 5). From the latest National Hurricane Center 'discussion': "There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall."So like Harvey but Cat 3 - Cat 4 Full Discussion: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/300854.shtml?
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