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Post by missouriboy on Mar 22, 2019 18:57:06 GMT
Weather Trend: noun The belief among Climate Scientists that because Climate has assumed the role of central planner and administrator for all weather, climates, ecosystems and nature on earth that weather is no longer a random event and can therefore have trends. Otherwise there can be no trends in random events, e.g. weather, because the quality of being random precludes causal relationships required for trends. You don't really believe that climates are totally random do you? In geographical terms they are generally classified by latitude, elevation and proximity to oceanic bodies and general atmospheric circulation patterns ... and, as such, have general seasonal and annual ranges of temperature, precipitation, etc. that reflect the long-term average of weather that "plays out" across that geographic location. Deserts are generally "dry" for perfectly explainable reasons ... and NO, a carbon tax would not change it one little bit. Weather events may be "random", but as a probability function it generally serves to bring us Central Missourians 30-50 inches of water every year. We could compare that to Death Valley, for example, and note that those probability functions do not overlap ... even in the weirdest of years. I will leave myself a little wiggle room as I have not personally explored Death Valley's weather records. Random may too often be utilized as a convenient explanation for ignorance ... or not.
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 22, 2019 21:16:06 GMT
You don't really believe that climates are totally random do you? Weather. Weather is a random event. In geographical terms they are generally classified by latitude, elevation and proximity to oceanic bodies and general atmospheric circulation patterns ... and, as such, have general seasonal and annual ranges of temperature, precipitation, etc. ... you are fine up to this point, however ... that reflect the long-term average of weather that "plays out" across that geographic location Absolutely not. A climate represents local conditions BOUNDED by a time frame (not some open-ended "long term") and there is no averaging of anything. A climate is simply described in a colloquial manner, such as "temperate and rainy," "cold and windy," etc... Example: I can quite effectively tell you what the summer daytime climate of Phoenix is without any data whatsoever. Hot and arid. That is the climate of Phoenix within the bounding time frame specified. There are no averages in there anywhere. I hope you aren't disappointed that it simply doesn't take a scientist to discuss any particular climate. An eighth grader can do it. By the way, the very concept of "average weather" is absurd. Can you give me an example of averaged weather? What does that look like? Perhaps hot-cold windy-calm humid-arid high-low pressure bright and sunny-foggy heavy rain and snow with zero precipitation? ... and NO, a carbon tax would not change it one little bit. Agreed. Weather events may be "random", but as a probability function it generally serves to bring us Central Missourians 30-50 inches of water every year ... but that is irrelevant. If I were to claim that a 6-sided die roll isn't truly random because if you roll ten of them the sum will normally be between 31-39, you would wonder how that is even relevant, much less how it somehow makes a die roll not truly random. Random may too often be utilized as a convenient explanation for ignorance ... or not. If it's random, you have to call it random. If it's a climate you are discussing, you are simply discussing the subjective human categorization of a local area or region.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 22, 2019 23:53:32 GMT
[ Snip ] Was your SUV a teleconnection? Well .... yes and no. I think.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 23, 2019 2:50:27 GMT
that reflect the long-term average of weather that "plays out" across that geographic location Absolutely not. A climate represents local conditions BOUNDED by a time frame (not some open-ended "long term") and there is no averaging of anything. A climate is simply described in a colloquial manner, such as "temperate and rainy," "cold and windy," etc... Example: I can quite effectively tell you what the summer daytime climate of Phoenix is without any data whatsoever. Hot and arid. That is the climate of Phoenix within the bounding time frame specified. There are no averages in there anywhere. I hope you aren't disappointed that it simply doesn't take a scientist to discuss any particular climate. An eighth grader can do it. By the way, the very concept of "average weather" is absurd. Can you give me an example of averaged weather? What does that look like? Perhaps hot-cold windy-calm humid-arid high-low pressure bright and sunny-foggy heavy rain and snow with zero precipitation? Not sure why you dislike numbers and descriptive statistics so much. Yes, an eighth grader, if queried about the climate of Phoenix might say, "it's a desert". If asked what a desert was, an eighth grader might say, "it doesn't rain very much". That is a verbal average. And whether he knows it or not, he has just engaged in the use of descriptive statistics based on mental data stored in his RAM. If queried about a rain forest, he might say, "it rains a lot". Same mental averaging going on. And yes, the word desert is based on "averaged weather" as it relates to precipitation. There are warm ones and cold ones and high ones and low ones. I assume that you can tell me what the summer climate of Phoenix is because you do in fact have data. It is stored in your memory from past experience or lessons. It did not randomly appear from a vacuum. Random typically has very specific meaning in science. It sounds like you might prefer number one below. I would disagree that precipitation (as a specific weather event) is random. It occurs when atmospheric conditions (all that entails) are conducive to its occurrence, whether we know all of them or not. That is not random. Prediction is a different story. And the climates of Phoenix, AZ and Columbia, MO are decidedly different. And that is not random either ... and is just another example of where descriptive statistics are useful. Although having lived in both places, I don't need to read the tables to tell me that. random (rănˈdəm)► adj. Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective: random movements. See Synonyms at chance. adj. Mathematics & Statistics Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution. adj. Of or relating to an event in which all outcomes are equally likely, as in the testing of a blood sample for the presence of a substance.
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 23, 2019 19:03:42 GMT
Not sure why you dislike numbers and descriptive statistics so much I love numbers, and I like a good regression every now and then. I love valid data, and valid conclusions drawn thereof. If asked what a desert was, an eighth grader might say, "it doesn't rain very much". That is a verbal average. Nope. That would be natural human judgement, i.e. a characterization. Averaging necessarily involves numbers. In fact, it is defined mathematically. If we were to simulate such human judgement using artificial neural nets, we would use a computer which would crunch numbers. The human brain simply does not work that way. And yes, the word desert is based on "averaged weather" as it relates to precipitation. I’m still not buying it. I find it absurd to speak in terms of average weather. Could you give me an example of average weather? I’m picturing something like hot-cold windy-calm humid-arid overcast-sunny-foggy rainy-snow with no precipitation. What is the average coin flip? What is the earth’s average weather for, say, yesterday? … or pick whatever day you wish. If one can average weather then it is perfectly reasonable to request the average weather for the earth for an arbitrary time interval. I think we can both see how this is absurd. Random typically has very specific meaning in science. You mean in math. Yes, its meaning is specific and refers to a lack of knowledge/predictability (computability) of the outcome of an event. Weather is random. You can satisfy yourself that this is true. Take a point ten steps out your front door, five feet off the ground and predict with certainty (within the tolerances of your meters) the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed/direction and precipitation at that point at noon in 63 days. If you do not know and cannot predict (compute) such, it is a random event. That is the definition. That is the meaning. Weather is an event, and a random one at that. A climate is a subjective characterization and to that end, the word “random” does not apply. And the climates of Phoenix, AZ and Columbia, MO are decidedly different. I stand with you on this one.
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 23, 2019 19:49:29 GMT
Climate Justice: noun Climate Justice is the Global Warming penal code, akin to "Shariah Law" that holds as its core tenet that CO2, methane, water vapor and greenhouse gas are"vile," much in the same way fundamentalist Muslims view pork, and thus consider them to be both pollution and poison, to be outlawed and forthwith disposed/eliminated. This view is considered an imperative to prevent Climate from falling over the tipping point in Her war against Global Warming. Climate Ground Zero: proper noun In the Global Warming mythology, the term for wherever Climate is directly facing off with Global Warming. Global Warming believers make pilgrimages to such locations to see the fighting in action and to cheer on Climate, or if the battle has ended, to view the effects of the War.
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Post by IB DaMann on Mar 24, 2019 2:31:27 GMT
The opening post (OP) is now a consolidated listing if anybody is interested.
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Post by IB DaMann on Apr 20, 2019 22:03:59 GMT
Unprecedented, as in, something according to our data record applied to 5billion years of earths history! The latest entry in The MANUALSea Level Rise: noun According to Climate Science, one must believe the ocean is rising. This aspect of the faith is non-negotiable. The extent to which the ocean is rising, however, differs between warmizombies and skeptics. Warmizombies insist the ocean is rising at a catastrophic rate, denoting their belief in Global Warming's inevitable victory over Climate. Skeptics, on the other hand, insist the ocean is rising at a negligible, imperceptible rate, denoting Climate's complete control over all things in nature and their own certainty that Climate will always remain undefeated over Global Warming. Note on Sea Level Rise: Many warmizombies become stressed over this requirement of the faith because the ocean isn't actually rising, and they find it extremely difficult to somehow convince themselves that it is actually rising at a catastrophic rate. Such warmizombies fear the stigma of being perceived by their congregation as deniers so they often don't seek the help they need. For those with self-deluding difficulty, the Church of Global Warming has gathered a collection of church paraphernalia to help.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 21, 2019 22:19:48 GMT
Perhaps a note designating David Attenborough as the first saint of the warmist religion.
Something that actually saddens me greatly, i grew up fascinated by his documentaries. Ive spent hours watching recordings on vhs back in the day.
Now he and the BBC are nothing short of propaganda 😪
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Post by Ratty on Apr 21, 2019 23:33:12 GMT
Perhaps a note designating David Attenborough as the first saint of the warmist religion. Something that actually saddens me greatly, i grew up fascinated by his documentaries. Ive spent hours watching recordings on vhs back in the day. Now he and the BBC are nothing short of propaganda 😪 Acid, have you forgotten Hansen, Suzuki, and Pauchari, Acid? Or ....
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Post by acidohm on Apr 22, 2019 6:33:30 GMT
Perhaps a note designating David Attenborough as the first saint of the warmist religion. Something that actually saddens me greatly, i grew up fascinated by his documentaries. Ive spent hours watching recordings on vhs back in the day. Now he and the BBC are nothing short of propaganda 😪 Acid, have you forgotten Hansen, Suzuki, and Pauchari, Acid? Or .... I see what your saying Ratty.....but the general public don't know these people, Attenborough is known, and loved, by everyone.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 22, 2019 8:04:07 GMT
[ Snip ] I see what your saying Ratty.....but the general public don't know these people, Attenborough is known, and loved, by everyone. .... is known, and was loved?
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Post by acidohm on Apr 22, 2019 9:23:43 GMT
[ Snip ] I see what your saying Ratty.....but the general public don't know these people, Attenborough is known, and loved, by everyone. .... is known, and was loved? Indeed 😪
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