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Post by acidohm on Aug 25, 2019 6:48:51 GMT
OK ACID! Where do we stand on the N. American - Central England Winter Look Alike Contest? Progressing back an forth from 1) warm England - Cold NAM to 2) opposite to 3) shared apocalypse! (2009-10) Haven't updated this chart for the 2018-19 winter yet, but note the 2007-11 sequence. Is Astro's terrible, awful 2021-22 winter the equivalent of a worse version of 2009-10? Place your bets Gentlemen. What i see mostly is that UK/US temps track most similarly at/post solar min?? Its considered that US or Uk can be cold, but not often at the same time.....
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 26, 2019 1:23:05 GMT
For whatever reason the Jet over the last few years seems to be more meridonal in nature with larger than normal "loops". Seems the entire NH has a 50/50 chance of being on the cold side. This summer Western Europe was baking and Eastern Europe/Russia did not have much of a summer. We will see where the blocking sets up this year... Wobbly jet, HLB, are signatures of low solar Glenn. Yes, but how do you make a seasonal forecast with a wobbly jet? I thought Brian f*gan did a good job digging through historical documents and chronicling the weather during the Little Ice Age in his book. It seems low solar and a wobbly jet made agriculture extremely difficult and the weather was extremely volatile. Long story short I think the "semi" stable weather associated with a zonal jet is a thing of the past. Brutal cold and unseasonable warmth will be the norm and I doubt anyones ability to forecast with any accuracy just which side of the loop one geographical area will be. Winter 2019-2020 is likely to be brutally cold for about 50% of the NH. I would not want to be a farmer... Look at this summer. Western Europe had record setting heat while Eastern Europe did not experience much of a summer.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 26, 2019 3:44:58 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2019 10:19:00 GMT
"Are you ready for another winter ride, full of chills and thrills?! According to the 2020 Farmers’ Almanac, this winter will be filled with so many ups and downs on the thermometer, it may remind you of a “Polar Coaster.”
The Farmers’ Almanac, which provides 16 months of weather forecasts for 7 zones in one compact book, is predicting that the worst of the bitterly cold winter conditions will affect areas east of the Rockies all the way to the Appalachians."www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 30, 2019 2:12:40 GMT
I put very little faith in the either of the Farmer's Almanac forecasts.
Balderdash!!!!
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 30, 2019 10:23:33 GMT
I put very little faith in the either of the Farmer's Almanac forecasts. Balderdash!!!! I don't know where that puts the 'official' long range weather forecasts then, as the almanacs are often closer to what happens (show more 'skill').
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Post by Ratty on Aug 30, 2019 10:39:00 GMT
I put very little faith in the either of the Farmer's Almanac forecasts. Balderdash!!!! I don't know where that puts the 'official' long range weather forecasts then, as the almanacs are often closer to what happens (show more 'skill'). Has anyone done a postcast of both? Sig?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 30, 2019 13:45:16 GMT
I don't know where that puts the 'official' long range weather forecasts then, as the almanacs are often closer to what happens (show more 'skill'). Has anyone done a postcast of both? Sig? Why me? I did read something a bit ago. Farmers Almanac demonstrated more skill than NOAA. In other words, the Almanac was correct more often. With that stated, neither demonstrated much skill.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 30, 2019 21:59:54 GMT
Has anyone done a postcast of both? Sig? Why me? I did read something a bit ago. Farmers Almanac demonstrated more skill than NOAA. In other words, the Almanac was correct more often. With that stated, neither demonstrated much skill. And it's still a travesty. Settled is as settled does.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 30, 2019 22:40:27 GMT
Has anyone done a postcast of both? Sig? Why me? I did read something a bit ago. Farmers Almanac demonstrated more skill than NOAA. In other words, the Almanac was correct more often. With that stated, neither demonstrated much skill. Farmer .....
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 30, 2019 23:56:34 GMT
It seems to have already started in several places in the Northern Hemisphere
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 31, 2019 0:00:49 GMT
Has anyone done a postcast of both? Sig? Why me? I did read something a bit ago. Farmers Almanac demonstrated more skill than NOAA. In other words, the Almanac was correct more often. With that stated, neither demonstrated much skill. Blind luck... As I have said many times I am extremely skeptical of anyones ability to accurately forecast the weather outside of 7 days. NOAA, The Farmers Almanac, Joe Bastardi... There are too many variables that are poorly understood. Which is one of the reasons I find Climate Models laughable. With that being said I think there are clues in nature (weatherlore) that may give insight to seasonable weather. There are cycles that repeat and there is pretty much chaos when it comes to long range forecasting.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 31, 2019 3:00:50 GMT
Why me? I did read something a bit ago. Farmers Almanac demonstrated more skill than NOAA. In other words, the Almanac was correct more often. With that stated, neither demonstrated much skill. Blind luck... As I have said many times I am extremely skeptical of anyones ability to accurately forecast the weather outside of 7 days. NOAA, The Farmers Almanac, Joe Bastardi... There are too many variables that are poorly understood. Which is one of the reasons I find Climate Models laughable. With that being said I think there are clues in nature (weatherlore) that may give insight to seasonable weather. There are cycles that repeat and there is pretty much chaos when it comes to long range forecasting. Statistically, I'd be interested in how often the birds, fish and furry mammals have been right. Excluding ground hogs, who don't know anything.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 4, 2019 10:44:21 GMT
Arctic amplification obviously
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 4, 2019 15:35:02 GMT
Arctic amplification obviously Yes. In the strict definition of the word combination ... where Arctic implies cold.
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