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Post by nautonnier on Jul 14, 2019 18:14:37 GMT
So much for Astromet's El Nino forecast for 2019-2020. Guess it wasn't much of a forecast. Sorry ol' chap, better luck next time.
If you want a real forecast, try David Dilley at Global Weater Oscillations. He has a great system for predicting weather, ENSO and earthquakes. He is also predicting global cooling. Cheers!
Well not sure that celebrations should start just yet - albeit I have not checked every single post but:
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 14, 2019 19:17:09 GMT
So much for Astromet's El Nino forecast for 2019-2020. Guess it wasn't much of a forecast. Sorry ol' chap, better luck next time.
If you want a real forecast, try David Dilley at Global Weater Oscillations. He has a great system for predicting weather, ENSO and earthquakes. He is also predicting global cooling.
Cheers!
I follow David Dilley's work and he's quite good. And considering that Astromet's forecast of El Nino timing and magnitude was produced 3 years in advance of the event, a moderate difference in magnitude (he stated "moderate") and duration (his general time frame is not quite over yet) should not be considered an abject failure given the track record of our "climate science institutions". You seem to be rather gleeful in your announcement of a failure. Where is YOUR forecast from 3 years ago? Or do you only run your mouth?
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simon
New Member
Posts: 3
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Post by simon on Jul 14, 2019 21:10:36 GMT
So much for Astromet's El Nino forecast for 2019-2020. Guess it wasn't much of a forecast. Sorry ol' chap, better luck next time.
If you want a real forecast, try David Dilley at Global Weater Oscillations. He has a great system for predicting weather, ENSO and earthquakes. He is also predicting global cooling.
Cheers!
I follow David Dilley's work and he's quite good. And considering that Astromet's forecast of El Nino timing and magnitude was produced 3 years in advance of the event, a moderate difference in magnitude (he stated "moderate") and duration (his general time frame is not quite over yet) should not be considered an abject failure given the track record of our "climate science institutions". You seem to be rather gleeful in your announcement of a failure. Where is YOUR forecast from 3 years ago? Or do you only run your mouth?It is always hit or miss with Astro. And when he misses he always tries to twist everything around so it paints a good picture for him. If you're wrong just admit it. His prediction of El Nino was "to see early signs starting mid-late 2019" but now its come and gone. I could dig up that quote as I cut and paste his stuff but it's not worth my time. Like you said his forecast is not a complete failure. If he wasn't so condescending and arrogant (a self proclaimed polymath) I guess I wouldn't be running my mouth. Plus I just plain ol' prefer Dilley's work and professionalism as he's always dead on with his forecasts. He too predicts ENSO 2yrs out--its not something Astro has a monopoly on. Don't take offense, its nothing personal. But when somebody holds themselves in such high esteem they need to be reminded otherwise. Cheers!
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Post by Ratty on Jul 14, 2019 23:55:27 GMT
So much for Astromet's El Nino forecast for 2019-2020. Guess it wasn't much of a forecast. Sorry ol' chap, better luck next time.
If you want a real forecast, try David Dilley at Global Weater Oscillations. He has a great system for predicting weather, ENSO and earthquakes. He is also predicting global cooling. Cheers!
Good to see you back, Simon.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 15, 2019 3:07:06 GMT
I certainly am not going to throw any stones. Accurately forecasting the weather outside of three days is extremely difficult and there are few if any who do so with very much success. Personally I think Astromet is a really sharp guy who works extremely hard. I enjoy his forecasts and think that these boards are much better because of his posts. I have been around long enough to know that long range forecasting is almost impossible.
With that being said I will certainly check out David Dilley and his forecasts. Anyone who puts forth the time and effort to issue long range predictions is going to be incorrect a high percentage of the time. I think the difficulty level in such forecasts needs to be considered when grading or rating their accuracy.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 15, 2019 4:21:38 GMT
I concur with those who say they appreciate the work Astro puts into his posts, I am glad he is here. I am glad for everyone here. . # MeToo
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 15, 2019 7:56:04 GMT
anecdote and weather allow people to agree or disagreement with just about anything.
weather is poorly measured which allows conflicting conclusions to be produced.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 15, 2019 7:57:14 GMT
the point was that I like the spread of views on this site, we need to give push back but be respectful.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 15, 2019 9:16:42 GMT
So much for Astromet's El Nino forecast for 2019-2020. Guess it wasn't much of a forecast. Sorry ol' chap, better luck next time.
If you want a real forecast, try David Dilley at Global Weater Oscillations. He has a great system for predicting weather, ENSO and earthquakes. He is also predicting global cooling. Cheers!
Simon, I don't know what you're talking about, but El Nino is still here. It has not gone anywhere so you are greatly misinformed considering the fact that El Nino has been here in 2019, as I forecasted. I made my ENSO forecast for this span of time from 2019 to 2022 (both El Nino followed by La Nino) years ago, so sorry ol' chap, but better luck next time trying to make up things that just isn't true. I remind you as other members have that my El Nino forecast is for 2019-2020, which is taking place right now, so try calling me 'wrong' after that time - not before it. I also remind you that I also forecasted La Nina to follow in 2021-2022, so try to check out a calendar before you announce my 'failure' on that too before it arrives as well. I don't know who David Dilley is, never heard of this person predicting an ENSO ever, nor global cooling, both of which I forecasted a long time ago. You can find those forecasts on this board and do me a favor, don't put words into my mouth. Just see the forecast. It's there and I made my second ENSO forecast here on this board as well. So, if El Nino is gone, as you said it is, then tell us why is the government of the Philippines out with an El Nino warning right now? Here is the government of the Philippines' with their El Nino warning: NDRRMC Update Sitrep No. 22 re Preparedness Measures & Effects of El Niño, 27 June 2019Recent PAGASA's climate monitoring and analyses indicate that the unusually warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP) which started since November 2018 is expected to become a full-blown El Nino. • During the past three (3) months, rainfall analyses showed that impacts of below normal rainfall conditions in provinces of Western Mindanao and locos Norte were already experienced and are expected to continue. • The El Nino is anticipated to be weak and will likely result to below normal rainfall conditions in different parts of the country in the coming months. • Impacts also include slightly warmer surface temperatures in varying degrees from place to place and from time to time. With this development, the El Nino Watch issued since July 2018 is upgraded to El Nino Advisory on 20 February 2019. And here's the many pieces on El Nino, which arrived in 2019 as I forecasted many years ago - El Nino is officially here. What does that mean for U.S. weather? mashable.com/article/el-nino-2019-what-to-expect-weather/reliefweb.int/report/philippines/ndrrmc-update-sitrep-no-22-re-preparedness-measures-and-effects-el-ni-o-27-junewww.sanluisobispo.com/news/weather/weather-watch/article232368742.htmlwww.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/el-nino-not-yet-over-and-done-monsoon-2019-still-under-its-shadow/cebudailynews.inquirer.net/239436/rainy-season-here-but-el-nino-may-last-until-novemberwww.philstar.com/headlines/2019/06/20/1928052/pagasa-warns-stronger-cyclones-due-el-niowww.pna.gov.ph/articles/1073538There's many more of course, but El Nino is very much still in play - it is here - just as I forecasted it would be in 2019 and it will continue into 2020. There is no 'hit and miss' with me. I either forecast it or I don't. If you want to learn more about forecasting then learn to listen carefully before you speak. Have a nice day.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 15, 2019 12:16:52 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 15, 2019 16:34:26 GMT
So, do we interpret this as, under prevailing Nino conditions nino fails thus, as nina conditions arise nina goes to 11??
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 15, 2019 20:09:36 GMT
We all know that Astro has an slightly different definition of El Nino than our prestigious science organizations. To them, El Nino is defined as a "warm water event in the central and eastern Pacific that exceeds a positive anomaly of 0,5 C from a baseline normal over a specified period of time". Astro's El Ninos always occur after the midpoint of solar minimum during periods of low geomagnetic activity grading into the next solar cycle. He didn't correct me the last time I stated that, so I assume it is true. Call the post-cycle warm water events what you want. We continue with a period a negative SOI which has always been associated with El Ninos during our existing time series. So what if the forces driving El Nino are still in progress ... and it has just run out of warm water??? Techniques that deal in anomalies are always dependent on a semi-stable base period to be comparable. If ocean surface temperatures are declining, central and eastern Pacific anomalies could easily fall below that "arbitrary" anomaly of 0.5 C.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 15, 2019 20:15:57 GMT
We all know that Astro has an slightly different definition of El Nino than our prestigious science organizations. To them, El Nino is defined as a "warm water event in the central and eastern Pacific that exceeds a positive anomaly of 0,5 C from a baseline normal over a specified period of time". Astro's El Ninos always occur after the midpoint of solar minimum during periods of low geomagnetic activity grading into the next solar cycle. He didn't correct me the last time I stated that, so I assume it is true. Call the post-cycle warm water events what you want. We continue with a period a negative SOI which has always been associated with El Ninos during our existing time series. So what if the forces driving El Nino are still in progress ... and it has just run out of warm water??? Techniques that deal in anomalies are always dependent on a semi-stable base period to be comparable. If ocean surface temperatures are declining, central and eastern Pacific anomalies could easily fall below that "arbitrary" anomaly of 0.5 C. This was my concern that the El Nino step rises in atmospheric temperature over the years since the 1980's were in fact the ocean venting heat to space. Then all of a sudden no more heat. The claim is always that there can be no sudden drop into cold but I am not so sure (see the Younger Dryas). IF the ocean THC has been venting heat to the atmosphere and the La Nina recharges have been unsuccessful due to a quiescent Sun, then things could get colder quite rapidly.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 15, 2019 22:07:12 GMT
And if a cooling ocean also results in a cooling atmosphere (overall), then that atmosphere holds less water vapor ... and that loss of moisture through condensation could account for the prodigious amounts of precipitation we are seeing ... and a loopier jet is concentrating this along dynamic edges in places that are not used to it.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 15, 2019 23:35:17 GMT
[ Snip ] So, do we interpret this as, under prevailing Nino conditions nino fails thus, as nina conditions arise nina goes to 11?? What the BoM said: The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained near El Niño threshold levels over the past two weeks, while 90-day values have remained neutral. The SOI for the 30 days ending 7 July was −9.3, with the 90-day value −8.8.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
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