**Astromet's Forecast: Climate & Weather - 2019-2022** Jul 16, 2019 7:14:45 GMT
Post by AstroMet on Jul 16, 2019 7:14:45 GMT
We continue with a period a negative SOI which has always been associated with El Ninos during our existing time series. So what if the forces driving El Nino are still in progress ... and it has just run out of warm water??? Techniques that deal in anomalies are always dependent on a semi-stable base period to be comparable. If ocean surface temperatures are declining, central and eastern Pacific anomalies could easily fall below that "arbitrary" anomaly of 0.5 C.
Yes Missouriboy, I do have a different definition of ENSO than science organizations and I've already proven that I can forecast ENSO years in advance.
After the 2019-2022 ENSO; the next ENSO will be in 2029-2032.
The reason why I am so strong in my assertions on ENSO is because we continue to live in a world where there are very many people who claim what amounts to utter ridiculousness when it comes to the Earth's climate, such as anthropogenic global warming, which is literally physically impossible, but nonetheless we have people out there who believe it despite the fact that it violates all the laws of physics and thermodynamics.
Opinion, egos and wild musings and amateur attempts do not matter - only expert forecasting does - and in the final analysis, the entire point of Science is the ability to predict.
As for ENSO,
Again, too many people are jumping the gun again (as usual) either when they've predicted El Nino (and La Nina) when it did not occur or claiming that a current El Nino is 'losing steam' and that next winter will be a 'crap shoot' which means that no one knows what next winter in the northern hemisphere will be like.
Any monthly, seasonal, yearly and decadal forecasts must be done by astronomic means - that is the only way to be accurate and consistently accurate.
I've already forecasted that the coming northern hemispheric winter of 2019-2020 will early, snowy, but short - giving way to an early and long spring 2020 that gets underway the second half of February.
El Nino right now is merely oscillating, according to the activity of the Sun, but El Nino will remain with us into 2020, as I forecasted, but many are doing 'nowcasting' and expecting that to be 'forecasting,' - which it is not. My advice is to keep your eye on El Nino and when it fades in 2020, then watch for the rise of La Nina.
I continue to repeat what I've always said in how they develop and I prove it by forecasting ENSOs - not merely opining on them:
For years I have forecasted that the next El Niño would get underway this year (2019.)
This is the second El Niño I have forecasted years in advance (the last one being the 2009-2010 event.)
I repeated my long-held El Niño forecast numerous times over the last 9 years.
On Thursday morning, February 14, 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that El Niño is here and issued an El Niño Advisory.
"El Niño conditions across the equatorial Pacific have come together, and we can now announce its arrival," said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and ENSO forecaster.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean.
El Niño can have major implications for weather patterns across the globe as it also affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics.
The warm phase of ENSO is known as El Niño and the cold phase is called La Niña.
Back in 2006, I forecasted that by mid-2009 to mid-2010, there would be a El Niño which would be then followed by a strong La Niña in 2010-2011.
I then forecasted that the next El Niño to arrive in 2019 and extending into 2020.
It will be followed by a powerful La Niña that will dominate the weather of 2021-2022 - with an especially snowy, icy and long winter season throughout the northern hemisphere.
Despite NOAA and other climate centers using what they call ENSO-Neutral models, the fact is that there is no such thing which exists in reality.
I have consistently reminded those who continue to use and rely on these climate models that one cannot get a 'little bit' pregnant.
Either there is an ENSO or there is not.
There is no such thing as a 'neutral' phase of ENSO.
It does not exist.
'WHAT IS ENSO?'
ENSO events are essentially caused by solar and planetary action. These are major decadal climate events that happen every 10-11 solar years.
The last ENSO, which I forecasted, was the El Niño of mid-2009 into 2010, that was then followed by the cold phase La Niña in 2010-11.
What people are witnessing is a large-scale variability in the Earth's climate circulatory system.
But when climate scientists try to predict ENSO they are removing a climate mechanism where the thermal/kinetic exchange to equilibrium is achieved.
ENSO is externally forced through the polar annular modes/AAM.
What confuses climate computer modellers about ENSO and its cycle is that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is not linear.
That's because El Niño and La Niña respond to fluctuations caused by the external forcing - primarily by the Sun.
ENSO is forced by the Sun externally because of the strength of the trade winds, that is a technical term for what is known as 'Walker Cell' dynamics and the AAM integrals which predate ENSO's sea surface temperature variations.
Know that the Earth's atmosphere with these perturbations is the less energetic body, so by definition there has to be an 'external' perturbation present that forces the atmosphere to respond.
Scientific evidence of the Sun's forcing of the atmosphere exists and the relationship is very significant:
For instance, the co-rotating coronal holes of the Sun induce fluctuations of the solar wind speed in the vicinity of the Earth.
These fluxes of solar wind speed are closely correlated with geomagnetic activity and the resultant geophysical climate and weather effects on Earth which is basic to Astrometeorology.
Solar wind speeds have been observed and monitored by orbiting Earth satellites since the mid-1960s.
The long-term series of solar wind speed clearly reveals enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days and at its harmonics 13.6 and 9.1 days.
The amplitude series are modulated by a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that has a period of 1.75a (that's 21 months) as bispectral analysis reveals.
A 1.75a QBO component is also present in the equatorial, zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component at the period 2.4a (at 29 months.)
The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the global electric circuit, and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux and particle precipitation.
And the series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a.
The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as function of time.
The maxima of the solar wind QBO series correlate with those of the ENSO Index. Analysis confirms that the solar wind QBO helps to trigger ENSO activity.
The solar forcing of ENSO is performed by changes in the meridional flux by means of the NAM/SAM. This is what also connects directly back to planetary wave action.
In volume 36, issue 17, of the September 2009 Geophysical Research Letters, Rodrigo Caballero and Bruce T. Anderson stated that:
"Stationary planetary waves are excited in the mid-latitudes, propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics.
The impact these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled.
"Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength.
A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability.
"Here, we show that the two phenomena are in fact closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell.
The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO.
"As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event."
Moreover, there is a link from the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO,
Consider what scientists Ping Chang and Link Ji from Texas A&M University at College Station, Texas wrote in late 2008:
"The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon referred to as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a long simulation of a coupled model.
The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO.
"The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event.
The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events."
Now, the reasons why NOAA/NWS and every other conventional climate center on Earth, along with some forecasts and their reliance on models cannot forecast ENSO.
The reason is that their computer models are completely out of touch with the realities of how the Earth's climate is truly forced - from space.
ENSO is *astronomically-caused.*
Clearly the algorithms in their overblown computer models are not programmed to understand ENSO. These models are based on 'effects,' - but not causes.
That is why they cannot forecast anything that falls outside of several weeks to about two months (if that.)
Yet every single year they come out with forecasts on ENSO which do not materialize.
Rather, what conventional modellers do is that they take an initial condition and apply their own perturbation theories in attempts to luck into a accurate prediction - but those projections are always wrong.
In truth, in the real world of climate, ENSO is NOT an internally driven or a chaotic phenomenon.
El Niño and La Niña are solar and planetary magnetically-driven events that forces upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and this can be easily observed with the results and impact on the N/S annular modes.
Reports from a project on the 2011 La Nina I forecasted fell to -4 degrees Celsius because those expensive computer models are founded on absolutely useless methods on the given boundary conditions they use to project from.
It means they are essentially using models that *drives* the climate/weather system state - rather than the other way around.
It's called having it ass backwards.
If you subtract ENSO, then you also have to subtract the poleward migration of Hadley cells/expansion of the Ferrel cells observed since solar year 1976.
Now, once you do that, you lose 3-4 percent decrease that's observed in tropical cloud cover.
Therefore, you also lose essentially all of the warming that has occurred since the 1970s which comes to about 3.5W/m^2 of loss since solar year 1982.
NOAA/NWS and every other climate forecast center does not successfully produce accurate seasonal forecasts.
Again, that's because their models are programmed only to the limited and general governing equations entered into them.
They continue to treat 'effects' as 'causes.'
Again, there will be no real El Nino until 2019 which will last into 2020.
Moreover, then a La Nina will arrive in 2021 that will extend into the first half of solar year 2022 will set new worldwide weather records under the climate regime of global cooling.
The ENSO action is further complicated by the climate change to global cooling.
Because of the altering of the polar jet streams, particularly in the northern hemisphere, the usual zonal wind patterns will not be in effect, rather, it will be meridional pattern flow that will lead to frequent and great storm intensity.
The full blown La Nina of 2021-2022 which I've forecasted will make weather history worldwide under the new climate of global cooling.
'FARMING ON THE BRINK?'
As for agriculture, many farmers, including those in North America, are fighting for survival after several years of declining crop values.
Seeing the lowest incomes since the commodities bust of 2014 farmers are now having to battle borrowing money, which is becoming more expensive as interest rates rise.
The Federal Reserve has been tightening credit; bringing to an end nearly 10 years of near zero interest rates after the economic crisis of 2008.
As a result, banks have raised fixed rates on U.S. farm loans to a five-year high of 5.6 percent which is up from 5.3% a year ago.
And, with more increases coming through solar year 2019, farmers are going to see even weaker profit margins.
During the boom years farmers to about mid-2013, farmers stockpiled cash when record crop prices saw profits surging.
By 2015, American farmlands attained $3,020 an acre on average in 2015, which was double just 10 years earlier. For instance, by 2014 farmland had reached a record of $8,500 an acre.
The issue really was about the near zero interest rates.
When rates were low, it was a simple matter for cash-rich farmers to buy out their neighbor's land to expand output.
In those halcyon days even hedge funds to city-goers were investing in farmland as some leased more acres to boost production when crop prices were high.
But all that accomplished was to spike global surpluses. So, when the commodities bust of late 2014 arrived as forecasted, it ushered in a years-long slump in prices that is still underway in 2019 with farm bankruptcies rising.
The effect of that placed the economics of farming at a much greater risk as costs increased.
So the prospect of the growing expensive debt is adding to pressures as I expect the benchmark interest to be somewhere near to 3.5% by solar year 2020.
Farmers worldwide, in preparing for ENSO to begin in 2019 and living with the weather of global cooling must make significant changes in how they farm to remain profitable.
Among these changes is the ability to shift and adapt with the climate and weather conditions of global cooling; from the high irregularity of seasons; to below-average precipitation to drought conditions and from drought to above-average precipitation - the mainstay of the highly variable weather of global cooling.
The climate change to global cooling by late 2017, which I have been forecasting for well over a decade, has arrived, despite predictions for ever more 'global warming.'
Lies and propaganda spread by pseudo-forecasters continue to try to make people believe that man-made global warming causes global cooling - a worldwide ice age that many refused to even believe and mocked as recently as last year.
The fact is that 'man-made global warming' does not cause global cooling no more than a ball, when dropped, will roll uphill - in total defiance of the law of gravity.
Those who are in denial that the Sun causes climate change need to know that the last ice age from the 15th through 18th centuries saw average annual temperatures across much of the planet to plummet dropped for decades at a time.
During those spans of time which formed the heart of the Little Ice Age,' the weather of global cooling came about due to atmospheric and oceanic circulation that brought about highly irregular seasons, featuring extensive drought to some regions and torrential rains and great floods to other regions.
The failure of those who presume to forecast climate and weather is that they are not students of these ice ages - the weather of global cooling that sparked crop failures.
This led to ever worsening famines and epidemics that then causes rebellions, hue and cries and wars to emerge.
The climate of global cooling causes a worldwide crisis that led to the deaths of a third of the planet as tens of millions of people were unprepared for the mini ice age.
So, while the propaganda of a 'rapidly warming world' has caused nations, governments and populations to be complacent over the last 25 years; the fact is that complacency will have very serious consequences during the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s under a quiescent Sun.
No amount and foolish talk of 'geoengineering' is going to stop the power of the Sun which holds 99.86% of the mass of the entire Solar System.
As the Sun emits less and less ultraviolet energy throughout its soon-to-be Grand Minimum, it is incumbent upon all to prepare for the long haul because having a short-term outlook of weather and climate is fatal to survival.
North America, particularly Canada and the United States will have to slow down their exports of food to other nations by the mid-2020s because of crop failures due to the weather of global cooling.
The Sun's Grand Minimum and Global Cooling is a threat to those who have propagandized the lie of 'man-made global warming' with the hope that world temperatures will climb based on the falsity that CO2 emissions causes it.
Of course, that isn't going to happen and never has, because it violates all the laws of physics and thermodynamics.
What is happening is that with the advent of the climate of global cooling media coverage is being forced to pay attention.
And just not on how unusual the weather events are, but it is forcing true discussion some do not like which goes against support for policies that are founded on the ideology of 'man-made global warming.'
Climate and weather events which span from two to three standard deviation ranges are going to have to be reported to the general public against the weight of evidence which claims the cause is man-made global warming.
Standard deviations that range at 3 and higher will increase in frequency due to the fact that we have entered a new mini ice age, and so that means that the reporting on what this means is going to contrast the typical blame of everything on human-caused climate change.
The fact with man-made global warming is that it was never true. It has burdened the general public with the climate insight of an infant at the expense of preparing the public for the realities of climate change caused by a quiescent Sun.
As the unusual extreme weather events ranging from great droughts to great floods along with the irregularity of seasons; torrential rains, heavy snowfall, ice storms and radical temperatures fluxes continue to frequently make worldwide headlines the fact is that the climate community and media will be forced to talk increasingly about global cooling - caused by the activity of the Sun.
The fact is that the Earth's climate is highly variable and far more complex than those who have tried to simplified it by maintaining that the laws of physics and thermodynamics have somehow ceased to exist.
I can assure you that those physical laws which govern the Earth's entire climate are very much still in full operation to this very day."
The spring of 2019 in the northern hemisphere will be late, cooler and wetter than normal and lead into a summer and autumn of warmer-than-average temperatures with unusual bouts of heavy rains and flash floods.
According to my previous forecast, we are now entering the ENSO phase of 2019-2022 under the Sun's influence on El Niño and La Niña in this new climate regime of global cooling.
Our powers as human beings to deal with climate change is in forecasting and preparation against the extreme weather caused by the Sun's Grand Minimum.
And, to confirm my El Nino climate forecast from years ago, it appears that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared El Nino has come right on time in 2019, as I forecasted...