Question for Astromet

[icefisher]

I am curious. There is an alignment of Jupiter and Saturn that creates something called the "Great Conjunction" that seems to align about once every 20 years and corresponds to 1941, 1961, 1980, 2000, and 2020 . . . .some rather important timings in the history of climate change and your current prediction of cooling in 2020.

I get a concept of gravitational pull on the sun and possible effects on earths elliptical orbit making sense from a variation in a known physical forcing.

So assuming thats a key element of what you do, what is the most important element or elements that converts that cycle of 20's into a 72 year cycle? Keeping it simple for guys like me.

[AstroMet]

Aug 26, 2019 4:29:19 GMT icefisher said:

I am curious. There is an alignment of Jupiter and Saturn that creates something called the "Great Conjunction" that seems to align about once every 20 years and corresponds to 1941, 1961, 1980, 2000, and 2020 . . . .some rather important timings in the history of climate change and your current prediction of cooling in 2020.

I get a concept of gravitational pull on the sun and possible effects on earths elliptical orbit making sense from a variation in a known physical forcing.

So assuming thats a key element of what you do, what is the most important element or elements that converts that cycle of 20's into a 72 year cycle? Keeping it simple for guys like me.

It's a simple question Icefisher, but a complex answer.

The Great Conjunctions of Jupiter & Saturn do indeed occur every 20 years, and so do their oppositions. These cycles form a series of complex matters affecting the world in what is known as 'Mundane Astrology,' that is the astrology of nations.

As it relates to climate change, the next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction will take place conjoined to the star Altair, in the constellation Aquila the Eagle. In ancient texts, the star Altair is associated with blasting storms, and very cold and very wet climate conditions and weather.

The cycles of Jupiter and Saturn as they relate to the activity of the Sun, I already covered in the Basics of Astrometeorology I published here back in 2015 where I explain how both planets tug and move the barycenter in and out of the Sun during their conjunctions and oppositions.

See ->> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2413/global-cooling-forecast-basics-astrometeorology?fbclid=IwAR3GJ2H4GHMK0yAGuy6C7SPz4_-cbZEldhcnt_5v1gsR6GXOwv0yoo1vAvg

[icefisher]

Sept 4, 2019 5:33:34 GMT AstroMet said:

Aug 26, 2019 4:29:19 GMT icefisher said:

I am curious. There is an alignment of Jupiter and Saturn that creates something called the "Great Conjunction" that seems to align about once every 20 years and corresponds to 1941, 1961, 1980, 2000, and 2020 . . . .some rather important timings in the history of climate change and your current prediction of cooling in 2020.

I get a concept of gravitational pull on the sun and possible effects on earths elliptical orbit making sense from a variation in a known physical forcing.

So assuming thats a key element of what you do, what is the most important element or elements that converts that cycle of 20's into a 72 year cycle? Keeping it simple for guys like me.

It's a simple question Icefisher, but a complex answer.

The Great Conjunctions of Jupiter & Saturn do indeed occur every 20 years, and so do their oppositions. These cycles form a series of complex matters affecting the world in what is known as 'Mundane Astrology,' that is the astrology of nations.

As it relates to climate change, the next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction will take place conjoined to the star Altair, in the constellation Aquila the Eagle. In ancient texts, the star Altair is associated with blasting storms, and very cold and very wet climate conditions and weather.

The cycles of Jupiter and Saturn as they relate to the activity of the Sun, I already covered in the Basics of Astrometeorology I published here back in 2015 where I explain how both planets tug and move the barycenter in and out of the Sun during their conjunctions and oppositions.

See ->> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2413/global-cooling-forecast-basics-astrometeorology?fbclid=IwAR3GJ2H4GHMK0yAGuy6C7SPz4_-cbZEldhcnt_5v1gsR6GXOwv0yoo1vAvg

Thanks for that Astromet. Not exactly what I wanted to hear but thanks for replying. Where I am at on my independent analysis is this. Climate is still being controlled (or at least up to 6 years ago it was) by variability of the sun. I am not prepared to answer why but there seems to be no other conclusion possible as the annual solar cycles are determining when the earth warms and it appears to be a force getting stronger rather than weaker.

Additionally as I claimed some years ago in here, the loss of sea ice cover in the Arctic is not a positive feedback but instead a negative feedback. The uncovering of warm water under the ice is explaining high arctic temperatures and taking a page from Naut, heat in the atmosphere is heat on its way to space. Evidence of that is satellites are recording high anomalies in the Arctic but sea ice extent has been virtually level since 2007 and sea ice volume virtually level since 2012. Higher surface temperatures should be taking a larger toll on the ice cover but aren't doing that, thus satellites are instead measuring extra heat going to space and the arctic surface remains relatively unaffected.

Some years ago I posted a chart here of how 10 year temperature trends varied when plotted on a monthly basis. That plot showed that each solar minimum the 10 year temperature trend either totally flattened or (2 out of 4 solar minimums) traipsed into negative (cooling) territory.

Thus whatever effect CO2 is causing its being overridden by a lack of solar forcing during the minimums.

Additionally, there is practically no question that the earth has been below its equilibrium target state for the past 320 years. Coming out of the LIA it hasn't fully adjusted its temperature. It may have gotten real close to in terms of how that translates to a warming rate but there is no reasonable argument I can think of that would have merit in saying it did reach that point at any time in the past 320 years.

So we have unknown quantities of CO2 forcing and climate system momentum in the background and the solar cycle remains in control by whatever mechanisms it does so.

So I expect we will be seeing negative anomalies in accordance with the timing of your forecast, provided of course the adjustment crews don't get to them first. Solar minimum reasonably should be upon us sometime between now and December 2021. There is nothing and I mean nothing to stand in the way of global cooling. As I suggested the only thing uncertain is if it gets reported.

Where I can't go is in predicting how long this will last. Solar prediction business has been a revolving door for the solar science community forever. Our own Leif Svalgaard a diehard, highly assertive, warmist is leading the parade.

So I cannot predict how long the minimum will last. Last minimum it stayed negative for the better part of 5 years before they discontinued Hadcrut3 and I stopped plotting it while the trends only briefly popped its head above the positive line in 2010 from the 2010 El Nino.

I can't predict when or if another solar cycle will start soon after the minimum. I can't predict what the oceans might contribute after 40 years of mostly warm influence at a minimum by creating twice as many El Ninos as La Ninas.

[AstroMet]

Sept 8, 2019 3:00:24 GMT icefisher said:

Sept 4, 2019 5:33:34 GMT AstroMet said:

It's a simple question Icefisher, but a complex answer.

The Great Conjunctions of Jupiter & Saturn do indeed occur every 20 years, and so do their oppositions. These cycles form a series of complex matters affecting the world in what is known as 'Mundane Astrology,' that is the astrology of nations.

As it relates to climate change, the next Jupiter-Saturn conjunction will take place conjoined to the star Altair, in the constellation Aquila the Eagle. In ancient texts, the star Altair is associated with blasting storms, and very cold and very wet climate conditions and weather.

The cycles of Jupiter and Saturn as they relate to the activity of the Sun, I already covered in the Basics of Astrometeorology I published here back in 2015 where I explain how both planets tug and move the barycenter in and out of the Sun during their conjunctions and oppositions.

See ->> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2413/global-cooling-forecast-basics-astrometeorology?fbclid=IwAR3GJ2H4GHMK0yAGuy6C7SPz4_-cbZEldhcnt_5v1gsR6GXOwv0yoo1vAvg

Thanks for that Astromet. Not exactly what I wanted to hear but thanks for replying. Where I am at on my independent analysis is this. Climate is still being controlled (or at least up to 6 years ago it was) by variability of the sun. I am not prepared to answer why but there seems to be no other conclusion possible as the annual solar cycles are determining when the earth warms and it appears to be a force getting stronger rather than weaker.

Additionally as I claimed some years ago in here, the loss of sea ice cover in the Arctic is not a positive feedback but instead a negative feedback. The uncovering of warm water under the ice is explaining high arctic temperatures and taking a page from Naut, heat in the atmosphere is heat on its way to space. Evidence of that is satellites are recording high anomalies in the Arctic but sea ice extent has been virtually level since 2007 and sea ice volume virtually level since 2012. Higher surface temperatures should be taking a larger toll on the ice cover but aren't doing that, thus satellites are instead measuring extra heat going to space and the arctic surface remains relatively unaffected.

Some years ago I posted a chart here of how 10 year temperature trends varied when plotted on a monthly basis. That plot showed that each solar minimum the 10 year temperature trend either totally flattened or (2 out of 4 solar minimums) traipsed into negative (cooling) territory.

Thus whatever effect CO2 is causing its being overridden by a lack of solar forcing during the minimums.

Additionally, there is practically no question that the earth has been below its equilibrium target state for the past 320 years. Coming out of the LIA it hasn't fully adjusted its temperature. It may have gotten real close to in terms of how that translates to a warming rate but there is no reasonable argument I can think of that would have merit in saying it did reach that point at any time in the past 320 years.

So we have unknown quantities of CO2 forcing and climate system momentum in the background and the solar cycle remains in control by whatever mechanisms it does so.

So I expect we will be seeing negative anomalies in accordance with the timing of your forecast, provided of course the adjustment crews don't get to them first. Solar minimum reasonably should be upon us sometime between now and December 2021. There is nothing and I mean nothing to stand in the way of global cooling. As I suggested the only thing uncertain is if it gets reported.

Where I can't go is in predicting how long this will last. Solar prediction business has been a revolving door for the solar science community forever. Our own Leif Svalgaard a diehard, highly assertive, warmist is leading the parade.

So I cannot predict how long the minimum will last. Last minimum it stayed negative for the better part of 5 years before they discontinued Hadcrut3 and I stopped plotting it while the trends only briefly popped its head above the positive line in 2010 from the 2010 El Nino.

I can't predict when or if another solar cycle will start soon after the minimum. I can't predict what the oceans might contribute after 40 years of mostly warm influence at a minimum by creating twice as many El Ninos as La Ninas.


Yes, I understand that icefisher, however, I've already predicted that solar cycle #25 starts the Sun's powerful Grand Minimum which will last through solar cycles #26 and solar cycle #27, taking us into the early 2050s. The minimum itself will span that period of time, and I've already long forecasted that and the fact that global cooling got officially underway in mid-December 2017. We are now in the first phase of global cooling (2017-2029) with the second phase (2029-2014) followed by the third phase (2041-2053.)

As for any CO2 forcing, that is hardly negligible to even talk about.

The next two winter seasons (2019-2020) and (2020-2021) will be snowy, cold, but short. It will be followed by the powerful and long winter of 2021-2022 that will also be a La Nina winter in this new climate of global cooling and the solar minimum.