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Post by missouriboy on Sept 27, 2020 3:03:09 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 27, 2020 13:46:49 GMT
So, while ya'll talk about Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania... I want to talk about Virginia. (I live here now.) In 2016 Virginia was a purple state trending blue. Clinton won by five points. The most recent Virginia poll has Biden up by five points. So... Why do I think Virginia will vote Trump? In 2016 Clinton had a 6% edge in voter registration. In 2008 a wave year for dems, they only got to +7. I think this is good evidence that the ceiling for dems is around +7. In the above poll to get Biden to +5 the poll demographics were dem +12.5! 42% democrat 29.5 Republican. Personally I see Trump winning Virginia by 2 points. Am I crazy?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 27, 2020 14:22:24 GMT
Additionally IMHO many of the current polls are using the same demographic assumptions used in 2016. They are completely ignoring gains Trump appears to have made in several traditional Democrat constituencies.
Has anyone seen any polls conducted if Republicans get a different percentage of African American votes in 2020? Hispanic? In almost every case the answer is a resounding no. Does anyone believe that these numbers won't change? In Florida, Clinton won the Hispanic vote by 30 points. Polls currently have Trump even or ahead in that catagory. If Biden does not win with Hispanic voters in Florida by at least double digits beginning with a 2, Trump wins Florida in a landslide. Am I crazy?
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 27, 2020 14:34:44 GMT
Additionally IMHO many of the current polls are using the same demographic assumptions used in 2016. They are completely ignoring gains Trump appears to have made in several traditional Democrat constituencies. Has anyone seen any polls conducted if Republicans get a different percentage of African American votes in 2020? Hispanic? In almost every case the answer is a resounding no. Does anyone believe that these numbers won't change? In Florida, Clinton won the Hispanic vote by 30 points. Polls currently have Trump even or ahead in that catagory. If Biden does not win with Hispanic voters in Florida by at least double digits beginning with a 2, Trump wins Florida in a landslide. Am I crazy? The aim of the polls apparently is to so dispirit voters that they think we can't win anyway so I won't vote. IF the polls were all true though there would be no sense in the democrat attempts to obfuscate results and use mail shot voting. Their continual playing the rules rather than the game makes me think that they are extremely concerned about the results. [Currently, democrats in North Carolina are trying to say there is no need to have a signature check on mail shot votes] In Florida here we are getting the Mike Bloomberg adverts which, to put it mildly, are declaring untruths in the Goebbels standard of a big lie repeated being believed. Someone in the republicans should run a Biden said this - this is what actually happened using news items it is easy enough. The only people guaranteed a win this November are political lawyers
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 27, 2020 20:47:51 GMT
sigh......
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 28, 2020 10:19:35 GMT
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Post by gridley on Sept 28, 2020 11:46:13 GMT
Thanks, sometimes Texas gives me hope. :-)
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 28, 2020 12:51:09 GMT
He will of course also be voting in person
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 28, 2020 23:30:45 GMT
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Post by walnut on Sept 29, 2020 0:31:34 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 29, 2020 2:30:33 GMT
My brother raves about the German north of Romania. He hired a taxi driver for a long drive one summer. He speaks tolerable Deutsch and was told many tales and shown many places the normal tourist would not see. The driver was very happy to have good paying customer, whose price to my brother was quite reasonable.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 29, 2020 7:50:56 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 29, 2020 13:49:49 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 30, 2020 2:59:17 GMT
Trump has the excuse that he did not set it up.
And to be fair he has worked to lower the corp. rate while trying to get more of it within the US. Good goals in my mind.
I remember our friend Obama saying before his election that if you earn a million dollars you will pay more tax under his presidency, what he failed to say was if you earn billions for a small fee you will pay nothing.
Regardless I have worked for my own companies and our goal is pay zero tax and earn as much as possible on both counts we fail but often a big series of expansions will with depreciation allowances keep you below the tax level of the people on the floor.
But it does bite you at some point.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 1, 2020 14:13:38 GMT
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