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Post by duwayne on Dec 17, 2019 1:49:52 GMT
The final summary of the new IPCC 6th Assessment Report is scheduled for June 2022. In the meantime there will be a parade of drafts and sub-reports beginning in March of 2020. What can we expect? If I understand what Judith Curry is saying, the updated models will show much higher CO2 climate sensitivities. judithcurry.com/2019/12/14/the-toxic-rhetoric-of-climate-change/ |
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 17, 2019 2:22:49 GMT
That is what the models will show as the science is showing lower sensitivities. The level of alarm has to match the rhetoric.
I must be getting old and cranky.
Looking at newer papers, the absolute butchering of stats, lack of demonstration of methodology etc is driving me nuts.
Will the IPCC 6th Assessment be based on science or voodo?
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Post by Ratty on Dec 17, 2019 5:23:22 GMT
That is what the models will show as the science is showing lower sensitivities. The level of alarm has to match the rhetoric. I must be getting old and cranky. Join the club?Looking at newer papers, the absolute butchering of stats, lack of demonstration of methodology etc is driving me nuts. Will the IPCC 6th Assessment be based on science or voodo? Are you asking about the report itself or the summary? |
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 17, 2019 5:27:25 GMT
Probably both. There are some real nuts running around.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 17, 2019 6:31:06 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Dec 17, 2019 19:36:37 GMT
Some how or another, subsequent to the issuance of the 5th Assessment Report the warmists have convinced many that Global Warming of more than 2C will be catastrophic. We are already half way there if you believe the Global Temperature measurements. So the argument is that we cannot allow the earth to warm more than an additional 1C.
If I understand what Judith Curry is saying, a majority of the updated models are now showing a climate sensitivity of more than 5C per doubling of CO2 up from an average of 3C previously.
If CO2 emissions continue to grow at the current rate, atmospheric CO2 will double in about 125 years.
If one uses a climate sensitivity of 5C, global temperatures will climb by 5C in 125 years or 1C per 25 years.
Thus the warmists will claim that the 2C catastrophic increase over the pre-industrial levels (1C over current) will be reached in 25 years unless very drastic measures are taken immediately.
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Post by mondeoman on Dec 17, 2019 20:45:50 GMT
Some how or another, subsequent to the issuance of the 5th Assessment Report the warmists have convinced many that Global Warming of more than 2C will be catastrophic. We are already half way there if you believe the Global Temperature measurements. So the argument is that we cannot allow the earth to warm more than an additional 1C. If I understand what Judith Curry is saying, a majority of the updated models are now showing a climate sensitivity of more than 5C per doubling of CO2 up from an average of 3C previously. If CO2 emissions continue to grow at the current rate, atmospheric CO2 will double in about 125 years. If one uses a climate sensitivity of 5C, global temperatures will climb by 5C in 125 years or 1C per 25 years. Thus the warmists will claim that the 2C catastrophic increase over the pre-industrial levels (1C over current) will be reached in 25 years unless very drastic measures are taken immediately. Yep - they've currently won the media and youth battle (mostly), but the expectation has to be that the industrialised countries continue to ignore Paris and move slowly to reduce fossil fuel reliance and install nuclear in large doses. One can hope |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 17, 2019 22:23:58 GMT
Some how or another, subsequent to the issuance of the 5th Assessment Report the warmists have convinced many that Global Warming of more than 2C will be catastrophic. We are already half way there if you believe the Global Temperature measurements. So the argument is that we cannot allow the earth to warm more than an additional 1C. If I understand what Judith Curry is saying, a majority of the updated models are now showing a climate sensitivity of more than 5C per doubling of CO2 up from an average of 3C previously. If CO2 emissions continue to grow at the current rate, atmospheric CO2 will double in about 125 years. If one uses a climate sensitivity of 5C, global temperatures will climb by 5C in 125 years or 1C per 25 years. Thus the warmists will claim that the 2C catastrophic increase over the pre-industrial levels (1C over current) will be reached in 25 years unless very drastic measures are taken immediately. Dr Roy's latest ... Roy W. Spencer comment: With the new CMIP6 models coming out suggesting even more warming than the CMIP5 models did, I fear we will see continuing "adjustments" of the instrumental temperature record to produce even more warming. This is the only way that the models can retain credibility in the face of real-world evidence that warming has ... www.drroyspencer.com/CMIP5 Model Atmospheric Warming 1979-2018: Some Comparisons to Observations December 12th, 2019 Just visually roughing out a straight-line 2025 value for UAH and models mean (roughly +0.6 C and +1.6 C) would show the state of the models versus the state of the measurements. I know they love straight lines ...So, in 50 years, the path to Armageddon is only 30% complete (0.6/2.0). Somebody please tell Greta that she will likely live to draw a Swedish social security check.  |
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Post by duwayne on Dec 31, 2019 21:51:50 GMT
Most of you probably are familiar with the “Zero Hedge” blogsite and some of you probably read it every day since it’s covers the current world and US news events as they happen. They just listed their 20 most popular articles of 2019 and I was surprised to see the most popular article was "Electric Car-Owners Shocked: New Study Confirms EVs Considerably Worse For Climate Than Diesel Cars." Maybe the interest is high because readers are interested in buying an electric car but it may be because of the skepticism about global warming. The 8th most popular article was "Bombshell Claim: Scientists Find "Man-made Climate Change Doesn't Exist In Practice. " www.zerohedge.com/markets/2019-greatest-hits-most-popular-articles-past-year-and-look-aheadI mention this because I think the Democrats will try to make “Climate Change” a major issue in 2020. What issue/position/policy do they have that’s attractive to the Trump voters? Climate Change hasn’t been important to voters, but the United Nations through the IPCC likely will fill the year with scary news about climate change. Several Democrats, including Obama, have said it’s the number 1 issue. I hope Trump is ready to deal with the fake news from the climate model projections and other “scientific” claims. |
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