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Post by acidohm on Jan 29, 2020 12:21:09 GMT
Legit?? I don't know....can't decide...
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 29, 2020 13:26:43 GMT
This provides some perspective.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 29, 2020 15:47:53 GMT
Legit?? I don't know....can't decide... Looks like they do it by committee ... one to do the work, and five to watch. Standard government job.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 29, 2020 21:58:55 GMT
From E.M. Smith
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 30, 2020 11:24:00 GMT
This is not the reaction of a government to just another flu variant - the Chinese are scared of this one.
WHY??
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Post by graywolf on Jan 30, 2020 12:18:27 GMT
I think the 'panic' is because it's 'novel' i.e. new to the human race and so no immunity to it.
We're just warm bags of fluid to it where it can reproduce and mutate?
With no immunity/herd immunity/vaccine we WILL all play host to the virus over time
When 'R' is set to 2.5 (every person passes it on to 2.5 people) the planet has total infection by Sept 2020
At the moment 'R' is reckoned to be around 3.8 but some reports, purportedly from inside the hospitals of Wuhan, put 'R' at a whopping 14!!!
Two days ago one of the Health officials from Wuhan's Province claimed that 'peak infection' would be in ten days (max number of new patients per day) ....either that's nonsense or very, very bad news for us all!
His colleagues in Beijing have April as 'peak infection' which is more in line with 'R' being around 4?
Though China extended 'New Year' hols many who travelled from outside China will now be returning to the nations they live in over the coming days due to their travel arrangements being set prior to any travel restrictions being set up in China.
Many will have travelled into China this time last week so even if the were infected on day 1 they still have up to a week to go before symptoms show up.
The UK has seen Chinese student numbers increase 30% in 2019.... I assume a similar picture the World over as China emerges into the developed world as a Nation?
This places students in every major city & travelling through most all of the planets International airports
So just how do we 'stop' the spread?
I do not think we can , the cat is out of the bag....better we just chill and hope we are among the 75% that see no real issues from our infection?
If mortality rate is 3% then that is a lot of bodies over 'peak infection'?
A lot of over-run Hospitals?
To me the bigger danger is from people losing their shyte over the period of max infection and not the virus itself?
Glad I don't live anywhere stuffed full of guns is all I will say!!!
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Post by acidohm on Jan 30, 2020 12:53:34 GMT
I think the 'panic' is because it's 'novel' i.e. new to the human race and so no immunity to it. We're just warm bags of fluid to it where it can reproduce and mutate? With no immunity/herd immunity/vaccine we WILL all play host to the virus over time When 'R' is set to 2.5 (every person passes it on to 2.5 people) the planet has total infection by Sept 2020 At the moment 'R' is reckoned to be around 3.8 but some reports, purportedly from inside the hospitals of Wuhan, put 'R' at a whopping 14!!! Two days ago one of the Health officials from Wuhan's Province claimed that 'peak infection' would be in ten days (max number of new patients per day) ....either that's nonsense or very, very bad news for us all! His colleagues in Beijing have April as 'peak infection' which is more in line with 'R' being around 4? Though China extended 'New Year' hols many who travelled from outside China will now be returning to the nations they live in over the coming days due to their travel arrangements being set prior to any travel restrictions being set up in China. Many will have travelled into China this time last week so even if the were infected on day 1 they still have up to a week to go before symptoms show up. The UK has seen Chinese student numbers increase 30% in 2019.... I assume a similar picture the World over as China emerges into the developed world as a Nation? This places students in every major city & travelling through most all of the planets International airports So just how do we 'stop' the spread? I do not think we can , the cat is out of the bag....better we just chill and hope we are among the 75% that see no real issues from our infection? If mortality rate is 3% then that is a lot of bodies over 'peak infection'? A lot of over-run Hospitals? To me the bigger danger is from people losing their shyte over the period of max infection and not the virus itself? Glad I don't live anywhere stuffed full of guns is all I will say!!! Hi GW, nice to see you 😊 Key point here is incubation period. All those sick in Wuhan caught this before the quarantine. We do not know where those that carry/shed the virus are, and may not identify them for days.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 30, 2020 13:58:53 GMT
Hi GW, nice to see you 😊 Key point here is incubation period. All those sick in Wuhan caught this before the quarantine. We do not know where those that carry/shed the virus are, and may not identify them for days.[/quote] Hi acidohm! Yup, they only 'locked down' Huwan a week ago and we know it has been spreading H2H since early Jan I don't think China was too hot on this from its initial recognition to early last week when it's scale could not be played down any more? Now they might be more 'on the ball' but, seeing as every region in China now has cases, the restrictions did not halt the spread Only now are we seeing airlines stop flights to and from China so even over the period where China was 'locking down' over 50 million people all their international airports were open and flights coming and going... From January 6th to January 17th there were two major Communist Party Conferences inside Wuhan. If all regions in China now have cases maybe party officials returning home to their provinces have spread the virus from ground zero throughout China? If so then the virus was certainly H2H before January 17th and so all the folk who travelled with these folk or used the airports they journeyed through may have picked up infection. How many international airports are there inside China with daily flights around the Globe? This 14 day potential incubation before symptoms arise is also not helping esp when it comes to trying to pin down all the folk the spreader may have had transfer with over that period....even those catching it from solid surfaces the spreader infected... So I think it is out and spreading and only next week will we begin to see cases from January 17th onward I think it a better use of folks time to accept that they will get it and face that roll of the die as to whether they are in the 75% untroubled by it or the 25% that get it more seriously? We are already seeing reports of racism toward Chinese folk and, as cases amass in nations outside China, I think we'll see more of it? Then there's the way folk will react to any outbreak in their nations? I am more concerned about this side of it all than I am the virus itself personally
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 30, 2020 14:40:01 GMT
I think the 'panic' is because it's 'novel' i.e. new to the human race and so no immunity to it. We're just warm bags of fluid to it where it can reproduce and mutate? With no immunity/herd immunity/vaccine we WILL all play host to the virus over time When 'R' is set to 2.5 (every person passes it on to 2.5 people) the planet has total infection by Sept 2020 At the moment 'R' is reckoned to be around 3.8 but some reports, purportedly from inside the hospitals of Wuhan, put 'R' at a whopping 14!!! Two days ago one of the Health officials from Wuhan's Province claimed that 'peak infection' would be in ten days (max number of new patients per day) ....either that's nonsense or very, very bad news for us all! His colleagues in Beijing have April as 'peak infection' which is more in line with 'R' being around 4? Though China extended 'New Year' hols many who travelled from outside China will now be returning to the nations they live in over the coming days due to their travel arrangements being set prior to any travel restrictions being set up in China. Many will have travelled into China this time last week so even if the were infected on day 1 they still have up to a week to go before symptoms show up. The UK has seen Chinese student numbers increase 30% in 2019.... I assume a similar picture the World over as China emerges into the developed world as a Nation? This places students in every major city & travelling through most all of the planets International airports So just how do we 'stop' the spread? I do not think we can , the cat is out of the bag....better we just chill and hope we are among the 75% that see no real issues from our infection? If mortality rate is 3% then that is a lot of bodies over 'peak infection'? A lot of over-run Hospitals? To me the bigger danger is from people losing their shyte over the period of max infection and not the virus itself? Glad I don't live anywhere stuffed full of guns is all I will say!!!Hello Graywolf. Glad to see you back from the Arctic in one piece. It may be true that, until our immunity builds, most of us may be exposed to the virus as it passes through to wherever it is going. If it resembles various waves of the flu, which have regularly taken away loads of the old and young, and basic medical care holds up, then we may emerge slightly (1918 flu?), or more seriously (?) dented on our journey to wherever we are going. Medical facility and species resilience are probably key. Very little medical care in 1918. Seems you are worried about the basic trustworthiness of your fellow citizens. Sad. Perhaps we are closer to the frontier, where everyone knew that their neighbors were armed ... and social "do-nots" were well developed. Even my tiny little grandmother put "the lead of the Lord" into a chicken thief when the men were away. Not that she wanted to. Social mores and culture, in general, are very important when synapses start popping. Of course I stay away from the big cities. But I feel a lot more comfortable in a group of neighbors, whom I know are "packing", than I would in the dervish-infested-blade-packing environs of Londonistan. Much worse would be the invasion of two aliens at once ... a modern similarity to Saxons and Plague that decimated your environs from about 400-900 AD. Once again ... welcome back.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 30, 2020 15:50:13 GMT
As it happens the 1918 'Spanish Flu' was more serious for those with strong immune systems. It was the violent reaction of the immune system that killed them. My grandfather was in his early 20's and taken ill with the 'Spanish Flu' and put into hospital in London in a large ward known in UK speak as a 'Nightingale ward'. Like a bunk room - a long room with beds both sides usually up to 50 patients or so. He said he arrived and after a fitful sleep woke the next morning to find he was one of 3 patients that were still alive. It was a scary time - and the response of the Chinese makes it look as if they as scared.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 30, 2020 16:05:49 GMT
As it happens the 1918 'Spanish Flu' was more serious for those with strong immune systems. It was the violent reaction of the immune system that killed them. My grandfather was in his early 20's and taken ill with the 'Spanish Flu' and put into hospital in London in a large ward known in UK speak as a 'Nightingale ward'. Like a bunk room - a long room with beds both sides usually up to 50 patients or so. He said he arrived and after a fitful sleep woke the next morning to find he was one of 3 patients that were still alive. It was a scary time - and the response of the Chinese makes it look as if they as scared. Correct about the Spanish flu, it was the immune system that went rogue and began attacking healthy organs so the young/fit took the hit? Sadly H1N1 killed my dad in aug 2010 and then infected both my disabled son (who died in the Feb of 2011) and myself in dec 2010 though ALL of us had had the flu jab including the H1N1 strain I am left with a 'post viral syndrome' this past 9 years (all the joys of 'The flu' without the temp/snot!) as my autoimmune goes haywire! As for this 2019-nCoV? I think we do not have all the info but I think something else, other than the H2H mutation, has occurred this month and it has the Chinese really worried? I do not trust their stats esp. from the cities/provinces on lockdown. The numbers we are working on are bad enough if this is to go through the global population taking 1% to 3% of folks but has the mortality rate increased? Late last week we were hearing of folk just dropping in the streets/shops of Wuhan. If you felt really poorly you would not be out and about so these folk did not even know they were struggling until they collapsed? Today we have vids purporting to show folk being nailed into their flats due to suspected infection. I know they are communists but that seems a tad severe for an illness that doesn't really trouble 3 out of 4 cases? As for myself? I'm glad I'm out in the sticks as any knee jerk panicking will not spread from major cities to small rural villages.If it gets bad/mad then my tribe & I will hunker down until it passes/they all slaughter one another!
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 30, 2020 16:15:26 GMT
I am not scared at all. When we got to Dothan, I checked in. Informed the owner I had moveable lead. He reached under the counter and pulled out his peacemaker. "We have no problem with your firearm. We have found those who carry are very respectful and never a problem. Do you have a problem with ours?"
Nope, I had no problem with his.
Always amazes me how some people are scared of firearms.
If coronavirus becomes an actual problem, I am definitely more comfortable living in a country that is armed. I may have been shot at sometime during my life. Having the ability to return the favor is comforting.
The faster the coronavirus spreads, the better off humans will be.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 30, 2020 16:36:30 GMT
Hi Siggy!
On the gun thing, it would not be the likes of your good self (or others who posted similar?) that I would concern myself with. Most of the farmers up and down this valley will be armed but, like yourselves, know what it means to carry such?
Inside a city going 'bat soup crazy' because of rumours of food shortages/fuel shortages etc is what would concern me?
The virus? Yup!!! if we all gotta get it let's just get it over with!
As with other virus I'm sure our bodies will, over time, build immunity due to exposure?
In today's World of mad Capitalism folk will lose more than their shirts if this goes on a slow burn? Look at travel/luxury stocks/shares presently?
Maybe get into the 'Face mask' market prior to the super demand spike?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 30, 2020 17:21:20 GMT
Yes, in a city where folks have lost the ability to plan and be resourceful. As clearly shown, knives are as dangerous as guns. Take away the knives and spears will appear along with battle axes.
The reason I hope this spreads fast is that titer transmission will also occur. That will result in the coronavirus being a threat of the past. Trying to isolate it will only extend the danger period.
Death is a part of life which we all know. Just as climate change is a part of life. Herd immunity is also a part of life.
People are beginning to over react which is also part of human nature.
You mentioned "tribal" conditions. Have we reverted to that human condition, or have we really ever left that human condition?
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Post by acidohm on Jan 30, 2020 18:24:25 GMT
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