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Post by nautonnier on Jan 5, 2021 20:15:36 GMT
ENSO-Sunspots and UAH Temperature anomalies updated to December, 2020. Bit longer lag this time ... but down she goes. Notice how much lower the sunspot base has been during this last minimum. NEW FORECAST - Today the UAH Regions came out for December. Given that the Tropics declined to 0.05 (anomaly) I am altering my prediction. Tropics to drop to -0.5 with Globe following to -0.25, similar to the pre-SC24 ramp-up at La Nina base. This should occur in the Feb-Mar timeframe. I fully expect to be wrong. But this has been a wrong year, so in that sense I'll be right. That will keep the NASA GISSTmp adjusters working overtime - but then they may have had practice on Nov 3rd
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Post by duwayne on Jan 5, 2021 22:53:25 GMT
ENSO-Sunspots and UAH Temperature anomalies updated to December, 2020. Bit longer lag this time ... but down she goes. Notice how much lower the sunspot base has been during this last minimum. NEW FORECAST - Today the UAH Regions came out for December. Given that the Tropics declined to 0.05 (anomaly) I am altering my prediction. Tropics to drop to -0.5 with Globe following to -0.25, similar to the pre-SC24 ramp-up at La Nina base. This should occur in the Feb-Mar timeframe. I fully expect to be wrong. But this has been a wrong year, so in that sense I'll be right. Missouri, remind me, what was your original prediction?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 5, 2021 23:13:55 GMT
After the initial Global came out for Dec. I forecast global to go to 0.0. but after reviewing the regions, i changed my mind. Long ago I predicted that global temps would drop -1.5 C in this minimum (without any specific dates).
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 16, 2021 6:14:16 GMT
From Dr Roy Spencer's Blog. Very succinct article. www.drroyspencer.com/category/blogarticle/ article starts about 1/4 of the way down. 500 Years of Global SST Variations from a 1D Forcing-Feedback Model
Friday, December 11th, 2020
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2021 23:10:56 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 20, 2021 1:02:06 GMT
Nino Region 3 has turned upward more or less in the same time frame as the pre-cycle ninas of SCs 23 and 24. Nino Region 4 continues downward as per usual, as Region 4 usually moves upward after Region 3. The 1998 Nina stayed low and was very long. The 2010 Nina not as much. We will see what the 2020 Nina does. If you look at chart 2, you'll note that the wester warm pool looks "pooped". Nowhere near as warm as it has previously been historically. It should be in recharge mode during the Nina ... but it's looking kind of peaked. When the warm pool declines, so do northward and westward flows. Thus lower PDO and IOD. The starch may be out of the Western Ocean's shorts. Could that be why Nino 4 does not appear to be turning?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2021 4:57:32 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 2, 2021 19:23:18 GMT
Region 3 has been warming for some time, while region 4 just made a tentative turn upward. We will see if it holds. Both are moving in the historical pattern. But something strange is afoot (see map below). Earlier, the primary cold plume was coming from the south Pacific and warmer waters were backfilling the Nino3 area, resulting in the early warming seen in the chart. Problem of fixed boxes. But this new NE cold plume is strange, and might change the trend of the regions if it backfills the fixed boxes. Might yet see a non-standard return sronger negative anomalies. AND the western warm pool is not currently returning to the highs of previous cycles. One and a tenth lower solar cycles may be taking its toll. Expect cooler water pumped eastward during upcoming Ninos. AND since tropical and global temperatures follow ENSO, we don't need a big imagination to bet on what will likely happen. That big red plume heading on an unusually southern NE track may be the remnants of the warm pool buring off into the atmosphere. BETs on whether that will become less red in the future. The ocean is homogenizing toward a cooler state. I don't think that positive PDO is coming back in any strength for the forseeable future. Peikko gets my hedge.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 5, 2021 4:51:38 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 5, 2021 5:16:11 GMT
While I haven't looked through all the SSTA images by any stretch, I don't remember seeing anything like that. Boxes 3 and 1+2 are warming. But to their south it's cold.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 5, 2021 20:43:58 GMT
UAH regional lower troposphere temperature anomalies are in. The tropics dropped to -0.08 C compared to global of 0.12 C (0.20 C spread). The tropics are now the lowest since prior to the 2015 Nino. Global anomalies lag the tropics by 0.2 C. ENSO-Sunspots and UAH Temperature anomalies updated to January, 2020 are shown below. Next stop shooting for 2010 tropic levels of -0.50 C. Still a ways to go, but the tropics index has fallen by -0.67 C since August. Tally ho!
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Post by duwayne on Feb 5, 2021 22:31:53 GMT
UAH regional lower troposphere temperature anomalies are in. The tropics dropped to -0.08 C compared to global of 0.12 C (0.20 C spread). The tropics are now the lowest since prior to the 2015 Nino. Global anomalies lag the tropics by 0.2 C. ENSO-Sunspots and UAH Temperature anomalies updated to January, 2020 are shown below. Next stop shooting for 2010 tropic levels of -0.50 C. Still a ways to go, but the tropics index has fallen by -0.67 C since August. Tally ho! Missouri, you probably know, but the January readings have a different base year (1991-2020, I believe vs 1981-2010, which reduces the anomalies by a little over 0.1C. The anomalies from last year and prior are supposed to be updated in a few days. It's good to see the numbers coming down.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 6, 2021 0:05:37 GMT
Somewhere in one recent thread, there was a thesis raised regarding waves that may correspond to 44 year periods that correspond to two Hale cycles, which are two standard Scwabe cycles. I have been keeping a lookout on various data bases that might show such a phenomenom. A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms.I have found one promising candidate, although I don't have an explanation for it. Please speak up. Look at the following timeseries of 5-yr and 10-yr Southern Oscillation Index and ENSO patterns. ENSO is always a mirror image (more or less) of SOI. ENSO values before 1950 must be considered suspect as data have been largely reconstructed because there were no primary data. SOI on the other hand is constructed from surface pressure records for two locations, and have been regularly recorded since 1876. Note the 10-year centered running averages for SOI note that there appears to be 4-cycle recurring oscillation that consists of a 2-cycle negative period and a 2-cycle positive period. You can see it across the whole timeseries. Periods of largely negative ENSO (positive SOI periods) values are usually associated with periods of low solar activity.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 9, 2021 7:37:40 GMT
Well ... January 2010 and now February 2021 ... both end of deep solar minimums ... 2010 very end of El Nino ... 2021 one year into La Nina. But I guess it will be chaulked up to CO2 somehow. The arguments will be entertaining,Major snowstorm hits Netherlands, Germany and UK (biggest since January 2010)watchers.news/2021/02/08/snowstorm-darcy-netherlands-germany-february-2021/
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Post by acidohm on Feb 14, 2021 9:30:49 GMT
Well ... January 2010 and now February 2021 ... both end of deep solar minimums ... 2010 very end of El Nino ... 2021 one year into La Nina. But I guess it will be chaulked up to CO2 somehow. The arguments will be entertaining,Major snowstorm hits Netherlands, Germany and UK (biggest since January 2010)watchers.news/2021/02/08/snowstorm-darcy-netherlands-germany-february-2021/ Some weather types are calling this the teaser winter (which warmists hate!) Idea is this is like 2009, tbh in North Bucks we had little snow and a very chilly week. Oop North theres been weeks of snow on and off.
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