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Post by missouriboy on Jun 22, 2020 2:28:37 GMT
Interesting sub-saharan cold plume, and another cold flow parallel to North Atlantic Drift(?) The potential fly in the ointment, IOD tracking +ve. Missouri, have we ever been privileged to see a graph comparing IOD to ENSO from you?? Just so happens I have one. Seems the IOD is countercyclical to ENSO. That sharp upward spike looks ominous. Haven't checked it for the last few months.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 22, 2020 5:27:31 GMT
The potential fly in the ointment, IOD tracking +ve. Missouri, have we ever been privileged to see a graph comparing IOD to ENSO from you?? Just so happens I have one. Seems the IOD is countercyclical to ENSO. That sharp upward spike looks ominous. Haven't checked it for the last few months. More rain for East Africa, less for Australia ..... sigh.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 22, 2020 6:18:32 GMT
The potential fly in the ointment, IOD tracking +ve. Missouri, have we ever been privileged to see a graph comparing IOD to ENSO from you?? Just so happens I have one. Seems the IOD is countercyclical to ENSO. That sharp upward spike looks ominous. Haven't checked it for the last few months. Thanks for graph, i only saw one going back to 2016....tho your better and excellent one does only go to 2018?? That's a historic spike, values are currently much lower 👍🏻
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 22, 2020 10:05:46 GMT
Just so happens I have one. Seems the IOD is countercyclical to ENSO. That sharp upward spike looks ominous. Haven't checked it for the last few months. Thanks for graph, i only saw one going back to 2016....tho your better and excellent one does only go to 2018?? That's a historic spike, values are currently much lower 👍🏻 With the climate 'scientist' approach of drawing straight lines through noisy data, it does appear that the IOD has a rising trend. Why is that?
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Post by Ratty on Jun 22, 2020 13:06:56 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 22, 2020 13:38:51 GMT
The Y axes have a significant mismatch. Is that because Ratty yours is using a different rolling average. And of course it also has the different problem of only showing a brief 2 year window.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 22, 2020 13:44:31 GMT
The Y axes have a significant mismatch. Is that because Ratty yours is using a different rolling average. And of course it also has the different problem of only showing a brief 2 year window. It's the BoM's .... just put up FWIW.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 22, 2020 14:25:29 GMT
Thats what i was initially looking at 👍🏻
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Post by acidohm on Jun 22, 2020 14:28:42 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 22, 2020 16:41:57 GMT
so something we have only known about for 20 years is now understood to be the central measure of climate change in Australia. really!
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 22, 2020 16:53:02 GMT
Just so happens I have one. Seems the IOD is countercyclical to ENSO. That sharp upward spike looks ominous. Haven't checked it for the last few months. Thanks for graph, i only saw one going back to 2016....tho your better and excellent one does only go to 2018?? That's a historic spike, values are currently much lower 👍🏻 Yes, IOD dropped back to zero, but is now back up to approx 0.5. If we get a strong Nina I would expect it to stay positive since it seems counter-cyclical to ENSO. Both IOD and PDO are measures of warm water placement. Positive PDO equals warm water in the NE Pacific which lags El Nino events as water cycles out of the tropics around the Pacific (PDO shown in above IOD chart). Positive IOD equals warm water in the west of the Indian Ocean. When those great ENSO Kelvin waves are headed east, the IOD also moves east (ENSO positive - IOD negative). This seems relatively straight forward in comparison to the apparent ENSO - AMO link shown in the below chart, where ENSO pulses (both positive and negative) seem shadowed on the longer-term movements of the North Atlantic. Now how the hell does it do that (conjure the Curry Stadium wave)? (Semi-required sarcasm - Oh, I forgot. It's all due to CO2.). Studies in the movement of that great incompressible fluid, water. A few years of working with the boatmen who navigate the alternately wild and placid flume called the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, impressed me with the chaotic order that reigns and changes across flows. The old boatmen (and women) knew every eddy across every discharge in the River. At the top of a great drop into the seemingly chaotic mass of eddies (vertical and horizontal) and chutes ... they called it "Looking into the eye of the chicken" ... and off they went. Now, the Pacific Ocean dwarfs the Colorado River (which is dominated by gravity and obstructions), but the incompressible fluid still responds to physics and much greater, still poorly understood forces. Today's climate scientists might gain some perspective by looking into the eye of that chicken. An unrelated aside. While men dominate the boatmen ranks, there are numerous women who have mastered the River. As related to me by one such grand lady of the Canyon, the male vs female approach to navigation is distinctly different. A male is more likely to adopt a power-through response, while a woman will nuance every little or large edge in the system. Either way, approach is everything. Ya can't nuance what you've already screwed up. Michael Mann ... make a note.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 22, 2020 17:20:45 GMT
So, how do you suppose they figured out the following? The positive Indian Ocean Dipole contributed substantially to both the warm and dry conditions that accompanied the devastating 2019 bushfire season. The contributions are determined through least-squares linear regression. Climate.gov map from GHCN CAMS and CMAP data. I suspect a "magic wand" somewhere.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 22, 2020 23:24:05 GMT
There is a raft of good information on this thread. Thanks ColoradoMissouri.
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Post by gridley on Jun 23, 2020 11:00:42 GMT
There is a raft of good information on this thread. Thanks ColoradoMissouri. Indeed. I'm learning rapidly. :-)
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Post by Ratty on Jun 23, 2020 11:10:17 GMT
There is a raft of good information on this thread. Thanks ColoradoMissouri. Indeed. I'm learning rapidly. :-) Colorado River rapidly, Gridley?
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