Just so happens I have one. Seems the IOD is countercyclical to ENSO. That sharp upward spike looks ominous. Haven't checked it for the last few months.
Thanks for graph, i only saw one going back to 2016....tho your better and excellent one does only go to 2018?? That's a historic spike, values are currently much lower 👍🏻
Yes, IOD dropped back to zero, but is now back up to approx 0.5. If we get a strong Nina I would expect it to stay positive since it seems counter-cyclical to ENSO. Both IOD and PDO are measures of warm water placement. Positive PDO equals warm water in the NE Pacific which lags El Nino events as water cycles out of the tropics around the Pacific (PDO shown in above IOD chart). Positive IOD equals warm water in the west of the Indian Ocean. When those great ENSO Kelvin waves are headed east, the IOD also moves east (ENSO positive - IOD negative). This seems relatively straight forward in comparison to the apparent ENSO - AMO link shown in the below chart, where ENSO pulses (both positive and negative) seem shadowed on the longer-term movements of the North Atlantic. Now how the hell does it do that (conjure the Curry Stadium wave)? (Semi-required sarcasm - Oh, I forgot. It's all due to CO2.).
Studies in the movement of that great incompressible fluid, water. A few years of working with the boatmen who navigate the alternately wild and placid flume called the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, impressed me with the chaotic order that reigns and changes across flows. The old boatmen (and women) knew every eddy across every discharge in the River. At the top of a great drop into the seemingly chaotic mass of eddies (vertical and horizontal) and chutes ... they called it "Looking into the eye of the chicken" ... and off they went. Now, the Pacific Ocean dwarfs the Colorado River (which is dominated by gravity and obstructions), but the incompressible fluid still responds to physics and much greater, still poorly understood forces. Today's climate scientists might gain some perspective by looking into the eye of that chicken.
An unrelated aside. While men dominate the boatmen ranks, there are numerous women who have mastered the River. As related to me by one such grand lady of the Canyon, the male vs female approach to navigation is distinctly different. A male is more likely to adopt a power-through response, while a woman will nuance every little or large edge in the system. Either way, approach is everything. Ya can't nuance what you've already screwed up. Michael Mann ... make a note.
So, how do you suppose they figured out the following?
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole contributed substantially to both the warm and dry conditions that accompanied the devastating 2019 bushfire season. The contributions are determined through least-squares linear regression. Climate.gov map from GHCN CAMS and CMAP data.