The up-welling associated with cold counter-clockwise S Pacific flow appears to be widening even as the westward surface extension is backing off slightly. The East Atlantic "miiror" is also holding in there. It should pulse westward again with the next burst? That would be the standard ... but we may not be in Kansas anymore. The NAD also appears to be being held at bay. Goodbye yellow brick road?
Also putting here a comparison of UAH temp anomalies for Northern and Southern hemisphere land and ocean with an observation regarding the AMO in all of this. Three charts ... (1) Northern hemisphere land and ocean 1978 to 2020 showing the great shift in temp anomalies that occurred circa 1996-1997 in conjunction with the El Nino on the fire-up side of SC23. Nearly a +1C shift in NH ocean and land temp anomalies over a very short time frame. Often ascribed to El Nino. (2) Southern hemisphere land and ocean shows NO comparable dramatic land temp shift in the southern hemisphere. Rather, land temps trend upward but are scattered all over the place. (3) Northern and summer hemisphere ocean temp anomalies are nearly mirrors of each other AND AMO kickoff into positive phase seems to coincide with the northern hemisphere land shift, while pre-1996 land temp anomalies are about 1C lower.
Important to note that the positive AMO has had its 30 years and appears to be starting a decline. That disproportionate jump in northern hemisphere land areas could shift dramatically back in the rapidly approaching (first hints of data) negative phase.
I believe there is a quasi 60-year natural global temperature cycle. The CO2 warming sits on top of this cycle and causes some long- term warming.
There was a natural cooling period in 1947-1977 and the average PDO was -0.69. Following the 1977-2007 warming period, my expectation for the PDO in the current cooling period was something similar to 1947-1977 and so far the average PDO for 2007 thru June2020 is -0.66. The PDO is performing as expected.
The AMO seems to be stuck on warm lately.
We are nearing the halfway point of my expected 2007-2037 natural cool cycle, and the AMO should be approaching zero on its way to the negative part of its cycle, but this year the average has been 0.28.