|
Post by nautonnier on Jun 7, 2020 0:40:52 GMT
It looks like Glen is off the hook but Mr Phydeaux may need to tether things down.... There's some southwest shear in the GOM that should keep Cris from blowing up too badly, but I will keep an eye on him. These early small ones are usually only a problem if they stall over a coastal area.(Allison in 2001 and Claudette in 1979, I think, were both June TS that parked over the Houston area and caused epic floods). I doubt I'll have to move the furniture off the upstairs porch for this little guy. Once he starts moving, he'll blow through here in fewer than 10 hours (fingers crossed) and I'll have to rake up some tree limbs on Monday. Well Mr Phydeaux I hope things continue well for you Here in central Florida we are having multiple tornado warnings as circulating storms go past in the outer bands of Cristobal. We have had 2 potentials pass by; the current one is a little closer but looks like it will pass 5 miles West of us... It is always the rotating storms that cause the main issues with these tropical storms and hurricanes.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Jun 7, 2020 0:44:07 GMT
Not sure I've ever seen a tropical storm track like this before. If it's a model projection based on the methods of Neil Ferguson, I'd wait to see what actually happens.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jun 7, 2020 1:23:36 GMT
Not sure I've ever seen a tropical storm track like this before. If it's a model projection based on the methods of Neil Ferguson, I'd wait to see what actually happens. In that case Ratty I'd have the staff there start boarding up your windows
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Jun 7, 2020 1:49:24 GMT
If it's a model projection based on the methods of Neil Ferguson, I'd wait to see what actually happens. In that case Ratty I'd have the staff there start boarding up your windows We're on the other side of the bulge, Naut, probably (?) safe from this one.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jun 7, 2020 1:53:47 GMT
Not sure I've ever seen a tropical storm track like this before. If it's a model projection based on the methods of Neil Ferguson, I'd wait to see what actually happens. The National Weather Service is "usually" a little better than Neillypoo ... and for us it's only 3 days out ... so we will see.
|
|
|
Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 8, 2020 15:35:19 GMT
So, for anyone who cares, Cristobal was as expected here in Coastal Mississippi. The beach roads were flooded, the bays and rivers flooded (the surge ended up at 5.5 feet, and came at high tide with a full moon). Winds hit 46 mph sustained on my anemometer (about 30 feet above surface, 200 yards from the beach), with a peak gust of 53mph. Lots of leaves and small branches in the yard and on the streets this morning. Registered 6.27 inches of rain (still raining as I write this). The dunes took a beating down at the beach, but survived. All and all what you'd expect from an early season TS, moving at 10mph. I hope that's the last I see of tropical weather this year. Now the press down here can go back to wringing their hands about the Memorial Day COVID "surge."
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jun 9, 2020 3:09:03 GMT
Heck of a start to the new decade. Cooped up around the house since March. Spring kind of showed up in May. Flights to Portugal for June canceled by the airline. Esposa's flight to Bogota in August to visit the aging parents canceled by the airline. I'd drive to Florida but I might attract hurricanes. I'd drive to Utah but the National Park Service still thinks there is a pandemic. I'd fly to Hawaii but their Gov wants to quarantine me for 14 days. And now a new sooth has been uttered by the sayer ... "Fear not Missouri, till a tropical depression doth come to Middle Earth". The canoe is loaded and ready.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jun 18, 2020 13:36:51 GMT
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jun 18, 2020 16:43:04 GMT
We have had a Chinese viral wave and a N American violence wave. Might as well have a energetic tropical wave. Hell, what else could happen in 2020? Overall, ACE values dropped into the cool period of the 1970s-80s and rose dramatically from the mid-1990s. While La Nina conditions may improve hurricane development conditions by reducing shear, major La Nina years appear to be only occasionally associated with strong hurricane seasons (as measured by total seasonal ACE values). The largest concentration of these appear both before and after the large El Nino of 1996. Disclaimer: Silly data charts are no guarantee of future performance.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Jun 19, 2020 4:02:41 GMT
We have had a Chinese viral wave and a N American violence wave. Might as well have a energetic tropical wave. Hell, what else could happen in 2020? Overall, ACE values dropped into the cool period of the 1970s-80s and rose dramatically from the mid-1990s. While La Nina conditions may improve hurricane development conditions by reducing shear, major La Nina years appear to be only occasionally associated with strong hurricane seasons (as measured by total seasonal ACE values). The largest concentration of these appear both before and after the large El Nino of 1996. Disclaimer: Silly data charts are no guarantee of future performance.
I have never seen one of your silly charts, Missouri. Is this one ?
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jun 19, 2020 5:09:04 GMT
We have had a Chinese viral wave and a N American violence wave. Might as well have a energetic tropical wave. Hell, what else could happen in 2020? Overall, ACE values dropped into the cool period of the 1970s-80s and rose dramatically from the mid-1990s. While La Nina conditions may improve hurricane development conditions by reducing shear, major La Nina years appear to be only occasionally associated with strong hurricane seasons (as measured by total seasonal ACE values). The largest concentration of these appear both before and after the large El Nino of 1996. Disclaimer: Silly data charts are no guarantee of future performance. I have never seen one of your silly charts, Missouri. Is this one ? Ahh ... if only it were. But it's not. Rot!
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jun 19, 2020 9:57:01 GMT
We have had a Chinese viral wave and a N American violence wave. Might as well have a energetic tropical wave. Hell, what else could happen in 2020? Overall, ACE values dropped into the cool period of the 1970s-80s and rose dramatically from the mid-1990s. While La Nina conditions may improve hurricane development conditions by reducing shear, major La Nina years appear to be only occasionally associated with strong hurricane seasons (as measured by total seasonal ACE values). The largest concentration of these appear both before and after the large El Nino of 1996. Disclaimer: Silly data charts are no guarantee of future performance.
I have never seen one of your silly charts, Missouri. Is this one ? Ratty, I think the chart you are showing is from Imperial College, one of their more advanced ones. They used the same logic for number of deaths from COVID-19
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jun 20, 2020 2:56:15 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jun 22, 2020 11:03:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jun 22, 2020 13:12:17 GMT
In a few days, a similar series of imagery will be an excellent teaching short on the mechanics of why the N American continent is wet east of the 100th meridian.
|
|