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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2020 18:44:58 GMT
N Atlantic sst have little to with the temp over N Europe in situations like the above as the weather is no longer driven from there. If Atlantic sst dropped by 10°c then clearly usual weather patterns would be colder, however sst patterns also help drive synoptics and may increase the chances of blocking patterns. Which leads to thoughts on what do synoptics look like in ice age conditions? I'm not suggesting these as a possibility now, more wondering how our current Hadley/Ferrel/Polar cell model would compare. I doubt there would be a ferrel cell. The ambient temperature of the Big Hot Tub sets the general thermal properties of Northwest Europe's oceanic margins. While persistent easterly winds in winter may make y'all feel like Siberia, without the Big Hot Tub y'all would be Siberia. Count your blessings. True, though the specific heat capacities of water v rock/earth must come into play, oceans would take quite a while to reduced significantly in a meaningful way, plus there's fluid dynamics mixing from deeper, rock/earth loses heat rapidly. Point is, even if the Atlantic lost 10°c from areas our zonal weather comes from, we'd still have sst at ~5°c, and UK can cope with that easy. Turn the wind to north/easterlies, we can have -15°c and 30cm snow overnight. I get polar maritime can be chilly and 5°c v 15°c equates to be big difference in moderating the initial Arctic source, an easterly however always can travel from deep Siberia only encountering the North Sea, its just in a different ballpark.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2020 18:56:29 GMT
Here is a great example of how the natural order can get broken, watch the depression heading west across the Atlantic.
Atmospheres potentially going to go really weird. (And I like it 😊)
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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2020 19:00:32 GMT
Huge long fetch northerly to Europe, but its getting bit far out to expect reliability.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2020 21:14:45 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 12, 2020 1:23:23 GMT
Looks like a square dance.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 12, 2020 1:28:43 GMT
The ambient temperature of the Big Hot Tub sets the general thermal properties of Northwest Europe's oceanic margins. While persistent easterly winds in winter may make y'all feel like Siberia, without the Big Hot Tub y'all would be Siberia. Count your blessings. True, though the specific heat capacities of water v rock/earth must come into play, oceans would take quite a while to reduced significantly in a meaningful way, plus there's fluid dynamics mixing from deeper, rock/earth loses heat rapidly. Point is, even if the Atlantic lost 10°c from areas our zonal weather comes from, we'd still have sst at ~5°c, and UK can cope with that easy. Turn the wind to north/easterlies, we can have -15°c and 30cm snow overnight. I get polar maritime can be chilly and 5°c v 15°c equates to be big difference in moderating the initial Arctic source, an easterly however always can travel from deep Siberia only encountering the North Sea, its just in a different ballpark. Beyond the frost depth, temperature remains stable enough for geothermal systems to extract heat. Probably why our old, old ancestors lived in caves.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 12, 2020 3:08:00 GMT
Just knowing what square dancing is is close to a problem.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 12, 2020 5:01:55 GMT
True, though the specific heat capacities of water v rock/earth must come into play, oceans would take quite a while to reduced significantly in a meaningful way, plus there's fluid dynamics mixing from deeper, rock/earth loses heat rapidly. Point is, even if the Atlantic lost 10°c from areas our zonal weather comes from, we'd still have sst at ~5°c, and UK can cope with that easy. Turn the wind to north/easterlies, we can have -15°c and 30cm snow overnight. I get polar maritime can be chilly and 5°c v 15°c equates to be big difference in moderating the initial Arctic source, an easterly however always can travel from deep Siberia only encountering the North Sea, its just in a different ballpark. Beyond the frost depth, temperature remains stable enough for geothermal systems to extract heat. Probably why our old, old ancestors lived in caves. True, but air will only be affected by the surface it contacts. In an ocean some of that subsurface will be convecting to the surface, temps will average out. On land (hypothetically) there could be a 1mm stable layer of -10 with 10 underneath mixing would only be by conduction.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 12, 2020 19:48:32 GMT
Interesting jetstreams... Watch the flow from Baha California (a strange swirl there) - out to the Mid-Atlantic then turns South in the Atlantic and back across the Caribbean then out to Mid-Pacific and back in over central Chile in the southern hemisphere jet.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 12, 2020 21:10:07 GMT
I seem to see that north-south corridor from Scandinavia - central western Europe - into N Africa, repeated time after time. It seems to have a memory.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 13, 2020 1:37:17 GMT
I seem to see that north-south corridor from Scandinavia - central western Europe - into N Africa, repeated time after time. It seems to have a memory. Or to put it another way it implies that there is a 'strange attractor' buried in the chaos.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 13, 2020 2:59:16 GMT
Just knowing what square dancing is is close to a problem. I blame it on my ancestry.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 13, 2020 3:03:08 GMT
Especially the ones safely in the ground.
As a child we had such dancing in school lot of fun lot noise and not all that much to know about and oh yes girls to talk with.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 13, 2020 3:24:48 GMT
I seem to see that north-south corridor from Scandinavia - central western Europe - into N Africa, repeated time after time. It seems to have a memory. Or to put it another way it implies that there is a 'strange attractor' buried in the chaos. I often see something similar save our butts here in Middle Earth when winter systems dig deep to the south across the western US and are nudged to the north and west of us as the system comes screaming out of the southern plains. That northern loop from the Gulf, while at its weakest in winter, often comes to the rescue ... although it didn't help as often last solar minimum. Can't hardly wait to see what the western carnival ride sends at us the next couple of winters. Did I say that I was buried in 4 feet of snow in 2 days (10+ feet before the winter was out) in N Arizona during winter 2009-10? Extreme Western Europe often seems to be "saved" by that northeastern push off the Atlantic, which blocks the western flank of that north-south corridor. Although I note that it seems to have been failing more often over the last 3 years. When the jet digs deep to the west, Spain, Portugal and often the whole Med and/or N Africa gets hammered. That "strange attractor" may be a lack of umpff in the sub-tropics and their oceanic extensions. But we might expect that with a weaker "heating system".
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 13, 2020 16:23:38 GMT
Flea and Acid - you may want to get something in that is warming for next week - both liquid and perhaps curries or chilies. Looks like it will be somewhat blowy and parky.
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