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Post by Ratty on Oct 17, 2020 5:15:23 GMT
I saw them 3 weeks ago. They were early, which the current temperature scheme confirms they were smart to go south! I want to sign up their forecaster. I suspect that their forecaster is a sometime contributor to this board. Can you confirm, Astro? |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 17, 2020 13:15:00 GMT
I want to sign up their forecaster. I suspect that their forecaster is a sometime contributor to this board. Can you confirm, Astro? Geb has been messing with us for thousands of years.   |
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 25, 2020 16:44:22 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 25, 2020 20:42:44 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Oct 25, 2020 20:53:03 GMT
I responded to Pierre Gosselins initial tweet. There's no model that can reliably forecast a cold spell 3 days out, let alone months. I've seen interesting model output at 5 days out several times in the last 3 years. Its prib a 20/80 split in favour of that outcome not happening. The wintery outlook just evaporates. There is 0 benefit in pretending what a model forecasts above 3 days is in any way likely to happen, unless its forecasting something normal. As Snowbie point out....sarcastically, strong vortex=zonal. Its still to early tho, alot can change in 2 weeks. |
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Post by acidohm on Oct 25, 2020 21:43:41 GMT
Looking back to 2010...
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 27, 2020 19:14:34 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 28, 2020 15:03:19 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 28, 2020 16:58:13 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 28, 2020 21:45:17 GMT
Bambi and Bambina (the two deer that were born in my backward this spring) are back ... digging up some of the remnants of the apple crop that I buried in the new garden. Obviously I didn't dig them deep enough.  |
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Post by acidohm on Oct 29, 2020 10:34:05 GMT
Bambi and Bambina (the two deer that were born in my backward this spring) are back ... digging up some of the remnants of the apple crop that I buried in the new garden. Obviously I didn't dig them deep enough. Bodies are buried 6' down for a reason! |
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Post by acidohm on Oct 29, 2020 10:35:22 GMT
Bambi and Bambina (the two deer that were born in my backward this spring) are back ... digging up some of the remnants of the apple crop that I buried in the new garden. Obviously I didn't dig them deep enough. Bodies are buried 6' down for a reason! |
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 29, 2020 16:55:11 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 29, 2020 16:56:02 GMT
Bambi and Bambina (the two deer that were born in my backward this spring) are back ... digging up some of the remnants of the apple crop that I buried in the new garden. Obviously I didn't dig them deep enough. Bodies are buried 6' down for a reason! They stay warmer in the winter at 6' under. |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 29, 2020 17:50:32 GMT
Me wonders if this forecast misses a little of the low-solar, cycle startup, meridianal (loopy) flow pattern that we see in the current system and all over the world. Their forecast looks like an old normal NW to SE normal curve. I think it under-estimates the southward penetration of wacko winter storms this winter.  I remember the 2009-10 winter in Flagstaff. Now that was the winter BEFORE La Nina set in. But the jet ripped way south, west of the coast and roared over the SW, frequently. Flagstaff got buried (happened again last year - same solar cycle setup) and Columbia didn't get a lot. Winter after (2010-11), a La Nina year, Columbia had its biggest snow year in the whole 130-yr record (53" total accumulation). That suggests a different setup with a much greater midwest southward penetration. I'm preparing for lots of snow ... and we'll see. |
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