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Post by rbateman on May 8, 2009 8:59:21 GMT
It could be worse. At least they compare to a known time frame with actual measurements, though they do fail to mention the lack of sufficient time span in which those measurements were taken to draw meaningful conclusions.
I was born at the start of the Modern Maximum.
I haven't the experience of what lay before that time.
If I were 100 years old, I might be able to recollect enough observation to notice the change back to then.
If I were over 200 years old, I might be able to say that we have returned to the conditions of the Dalton. Or not.
This is man's problem.
We don't live long enough, and our literary past gathers dust and anonymity. It gets hazy all too quickly. Were they in error, didn't record enough, or did the thinking of the time preclude taking proper notice?
Steven Hawking would have a field day with this one.
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 8, 2009 22:41:30 GMT
OT, Bob, Are you game for a visit by me [and Vera] Sunday. There should be some spots even. And/or even later a dark sky. Has the snow melted :-) Good place to stay for the night? |
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Post by rbateman on May 9, 2009 0:56:59 GMT
Leif: My wife says next weekend would be better, so how is your shedule with that? If you can only make it this weekend, we'll just have to squeeze it in.
I have to put the optics into the Dob for next Fri nite for a school outing tomorrow. Do you prefer visual observation or ccd imaging?
My guess is that there will be some spots as the two regions rotate towards the center of the sun's disk (you never know with this cycle, though).
The snow is gone here, just up on the Trinity Alps above us. There is a Victorian Inn in town and some other small places to stay.
Victorian Inn 623-4432
Indian Creek Lodge 623-6294
49er Motel 623-4937
all area code 530
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cacb
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 209
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Post by cacb on May 9, 2009 13:24:14 GMT
OT, Bob, Are you game for a visit by me [and Vera] Sunday. There should be some spots even. And/or even later a dark sky. Has the snow melted :-) Good place to stay for the night? Are you predicting spots on Sunday?  Go for CCD ;D |
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 9, 2009 15:03:00 GMT
OT, Bob, Are you game for a visit by me [and Vera] Sunday. There should be some spots even. And/or even later a dark sky. Has the snow melted :-) Good place to stay for the night? Are you predicting spots on Sunday? Go for CCD ;D Hoping the active regions now on the East limb might have a spot or two in them... L&P might be have effect though. |
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Post by rbateman on May 9, 2009 18:18:15 GMT
Was thinking that there is some type of reversal going on.
Yes, the sunspots should be showing up on the leading limb.
Our last spate was in the center and on the trailing limb.
Might be a clue.
If we listed where they have occured in the last 6 mos. would we find the traditional occurence or something else?
L&P, there has to be an underlying cause, a rhyme and a reason.
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 9, 2009 18:34:46 GMT
Was thinking that there is some type of reversal going on. Yes, the sunspots should be showing up on the leading limb. Our last spate was in the center and on the trailing limb. Might be a clue. If we listed where they have occured in the last 6 mos. would we find the traditional occurence or something else? L&P, there has to be an underlying cause, a rhyme and a reason. Looks like you have leading/trailing reversed. The 'standard' use of these words is 'in sense of solar rotation', so the Eastern limb where the activity is now is the trailing limb, and the Western limb where the previous activity was is the leading limb... L&P [if actually happens] might be due to a change in the process of 'compacting' or 'percolation' of pores into spots as described by Ken Schatten: www.leif.org/research/Percolation%20and%20the%20Solar%20Dynamo.pdf |
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Post by rbateman on May 9, 2009 20:36:33 GMT
Right. I'll have to make up something to remember that.
We're getting more leading sunspots than trailing.
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 9, 2009 20:48:33 GMT
Right. I'll have to make up something to remember that. We're getting more leading sunspots than trailing. You can't judge from a handful. Statistically there are many more trailing side spots than leading side spots. |
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Post by rbateman on May 10, 2009 4:16:15 GMT
To be more precise, their current habit is to pop off a Tiny Tim when near the Solar Meridian, and once again before disappearing off the East side.
And we haven't had many sunspots in this time period (2009), as we all know. Even putting in the last 3/4 of 2008, we still haven't had much to look at.
And you are correct: The statistical record is the opposite.
What I am saying is that I find it very intriguing that the last year of sunspots (meager as they are) might have a new and opposite statistical behavior.
If that is the correct way to phrase it.
Anything is better than watching this paint dry.
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 10, 2009 4:18:47 GMT
To be more precise, their current habit is to pop off a Tiny Tim when near the Solar Meridian, and once again before disappearing off the East side. And we haven't had many sunspots in this time period (2009), as we all know. Even putting in the last 3/4 of 2008, we still haven't had much to look at. And you are correct: The statistical record is the opposite. What I am saying is that I find it very intriguing that the last year of sunspots (meager as they are) might have a new and opposite statistical behavior. If that is the correct way to phrase it. Anything is better than watching this paint dry. You said: "once again before disappearing off the East side." Should be West side |
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Post by rbateman on May 10, 2009 9:37:58 GMT
The current behavior. No matter if I get the lingo goofed up or not, the current behavior is opposite of statistical. Been doing that repeatedly (yes, my grasp of the jargon & the behavior).
Luck of the draw or indicative of something else?
(The behavior of the regions, not my finderscope motions.)
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Post by rbateman on May 10, 2009 9:46:03 GMT
Now then, the current amplitude of 10.7 cm flux is a healthy upswing, more so than anything we have seen in quite some time. The kind of uptick that goes hand in hand with a nice spot.
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Post by Ole Doc Sief on May 11, 2009 2:18:22 GMT
Now then, the current amplitude of 10.7 cm flux is a healthy upswing, more so than anything we have seen in quite some time. The kind of uptick that goes hand in hand with a nice spot. I am afraid to say it but My prediction of 5/4-5/6 spots and flares were only 1/3 right....at least we got flares  Looks like more interesting things coming around on Eastern Limb, but closer to the equator  Not exactly what I wanted to see.  |
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Post by Ole Doc Sief on May 11, 2009 2:29:36 GMT
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Go for CCD ;D
Not exactly what I wanted to see. 