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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 1, 2012 3:06:36 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: The jet stream over Europe is a bit south again this year. Last year NOAA had a piece that indicated UV rays have an effect on placement of the Jet Stream. In your opinion is there something to this? No, the data is not good enough to establish this. "One swallow does not a summer make'. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 1, 2012 11:19:50 GMT
More nice data. When does the paper come out? I think in a week or two... Great news! Where will it publish? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 1, 2012 11:24:23 GMT
I think in a week or two... Great news! Where will it publish? The Astrophysical Journal |
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tsh
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 69
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Post by tsh on Aug 3, 2012 12:13:28 GMT
Looking at the most recent plots, I can imagine that SSN is modulating the curve slightly (so the tail of cycle 23 had an exaggerated weakening trend, and 2010-2012 started out hinting that the trend had weakened. I wonder if (a) this has any physical significance, and (b) anyone cares to use this to fit a curve (although that probably has no real value).
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 3, 2012 12:52:10 GMT
Looking at the most recent plots, I can imagine that SSN is modulating the curve slightly (so the tail of cycle 23 had an exaggerated weakening trend, and 2010-2012 started out hinting that the trend had weakened. I wonder if (a) this has any physical significance, and (b) anyone cares to use this to fit a curve (although that probably has no real value). There is a slight solar cycle modulation. You can see that better in this plot that shows the effect in the magnetic field directly:  What is plotted is the ratio between the observed SSN and that calculated from the Mount Wilson Plage Strength Index, see obs.astro.ucla.edu/150_data.html#plotsThe boxes shows the transition between cycles. |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Aug 3, 2012 15:53:39 GMT
Looking at the most recent plots, I can imagine that SSN is modulating the curve slightly (so the tail of cycle 23 had an exaggerated weakening trend, and 2010-2012 started out hinting that the trend had weakened. I wonder if (a) this has any physical significance, and (b) anyone cares to use this to fit a curve (although that probably has no real value). There is a slight solar cycle modulation. You can see that better in this plot that shows the effect in the magnetic field directly: What is plotted is the ratio between the observed SSN and that calculated from the Mount Wilson Plage Strength Index, see obs.astro.ucla.edu/150_data.html#plotsThe boxes shows the transition between cycles. Looking at the plot of Blue Dots it would appear the slope has flatten out or turned slightly positive since 2005. The Violet dots have too much scatter to discern what the slope is. Bob |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 3, 2012 16:49:11 GMT
Looking at the most recent plots, I can imagine that SSN is modulating the curve slightly (so the tail of cycle 23 had an exaggerated weakening trend, and 2010-2012 started out hinting that the trend had weakened. I wonder if (a) this has any physical significance, and (b) anyone cares to use this to fit a curve (although that probably has no real value). There is a slight solar cycle modulation. You can see that better in this plot that shows the effect in the magnetic field directly: That's really cool. What does it mean? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 4, 2012 2:42:08 GMT
There is a slight solar cycle modulation. You can see that better in this plot that shows the effect in the magnetic field directly: What is plotted is the ratio between the observed SSN and that calculated from the Mount Wilson Plage Strength Index, see obs.astro.ucla.edu/150_data.html#plotsThe boxes shows the transition between cycles. Looking at the plot of Blue Dots it would appear the slope has flatten out or turned slightly positive since 2005. The Violet dots have too much scatter to discern what the slope is. Bob Looking at the blue dots it would appear the slope did flatten out or turned slightly positive since 1992 [and 1983]. The point is that this happens at every solar minimum and what matters is what happens next. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 4, 2012 2:49:09 GMT
Ok. My question is not one of AGW, but one from a farmer.
We had a widespread drought in 1987-1989, a smaller drought in 1999-2001.
And now we have the large drought this year.
I had not put much stock in SSN etc predicting/or contributing to drought like conditions.
Looking at the pinkish plot data now tho.......do you have any data like this that goes back further in time?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 4, 2012 2:51:48 GMT
Ok. My question is not one of AGW, but one from a farmer. We had a widespread drought in 1987-1989, a smaller drought in 1999-2001. And now we have the large drought this year. I had not put much stock in SSN etc predicting/or contributing to drought like conditions. Looking at the pinkish plot data now tho.......do you have any data like this that goes back further in time? No, but we are reasonably sure that the decline is recent and that does not extent, say a 100 years before the plot I gave. We also guess that going back 400 years the same decline may have happened [it is called the Maunder Minimum]. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 4, 2012 3:34:03 GMT
Thank you Sir.
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 4, 2012 7:27:25 GMT
What are the implications of this change?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 4, 2012 9:25:49 GMT
What are the implications of this change? Not quite sure what you mean? |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 5, 2012 2:35:35 GMT
You imply it is tied to a change such as a Maunder type minimum. On question would be - is the same cause underlying this that underlies the L&P effect or the weakening dynamo or is there a different cause for this? Also, does this have implications for the next cycle strength, timing, etc. and how strong is the correlation?
Stuff like that...
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 5, 2012 13:38:42 GMT
You imply it is tied to a change such as a Maunder type minimum. On question would be - is the same cause underlying this that underlies the L&P effect or the weakening dynamo or is there a different cause for this? Also, does this have implications for the next cycle strength, timing, etc. and how strong is the correlation? Stuff like that... We don't have any good speculations on this. I do think the L&P effect is the cause of the Maunder Minimum, but the details are not known. |
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