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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 21, 2012 21:15:06 GMT
updated with August data  |
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Post by duwayne on Aug 22, 2012 14:11:21 GMT
updated with August data Dr. Svalgaard, have you made a forecast of the max monthly smoothed sunspot number for cycle 24 adjusted for the L&P effect? If not, what would it be? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 22, 2012 16:48:50 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, have you made a forecast of the max monthly smoothed sunspot number for cycle 24 adjusted for the L&P effect? If not, what would it be? Good question. The original prediction was 75. Corresponding to F10.7 flux of 125. If the F10.7 flux comes to 125 [it is now 123 for 2012 so far], then with the L&P effect, Rmax would be 61, but this is uncertain as we don't know how much of the L&P effect is due to a solar cycle effect and how much is a real secular change. Perhaps a more conservative guess would be Rmax = 65. |
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Post by af4ex on Aug 23, 2012 1:38:18 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, As described by you, the L&P Effect is being driven by a slowly decreasing umbral magnetic field, which manifests itself, in visible solar light, as a corresponding increase in umbral intensity, which makes the sunspots harder to see against the surrounding photosphere. How is L&P manifested at other wavelengths? Such as EUV, where the intensity of the radiation from active regions is usually higher than the surrounding photosphere? Will the intensity at these wavelengths also increase, or will it decrease? Will there be visible changes in magnetic structures such as the wispy magnetic loops commonly seen in the 171 Å imagery? sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpgWhat about microwave frequencies? Will the L&P effect be observable somehow in the Nobeyama radioheliograms? solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norh/html/10mins/2012/08/18/movie.htmlIf there are uniform changes in intensity at all wavelengths across the solar spectrum, can this change be expressed in terms of the Wien Displacement Law? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wien's_displacement_law Tnx, John/af4ex |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 12, 2012 5:45:38 GMT
Both Polar Coronal Holes are gone ! According to WSO Readings the Cycle 23-24 Southern Hemisphere has taken a hefty dive over the last 4 months. It would appear the Sun's Poles are very close to doing their flip.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Sept 12, 2012 13:06:19 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, As described by you, the L&P Effect is being driven by a slowly decreasing umbral magnetic field, which manifests itself, in visible solar light, as a corresponding increase in umbral intensity, which makes the sunspots harder to see against the surrounding photosphere. How is L&P manifested at other wavelengths? Such as EUV, where the intensity of the radiation from active regions is usually higher than the surrounding photosphere? Will the intensity at these wavelengths also increase, or will it decrease? Will there be visible changes in magnetic structures such as the wispy magnetic loops commonly seen in the 171 Å imagery? sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpgWhat about microwave frequencies? Will the L&P effect be observable somehow in the Nobeyama radioheliograms? solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norh/html/10mins/2012/08/18/movie.htmlIf there are uniform changes in intensity at all wavelengths across the solar spectrum, can this change be expressed in terms of the Wien Displacement Law? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wien's_displacement_law Tnx, John/af4ex At microwave wavelengths the L&P effect does not show, in fact on of the arguments FOR the effect is that the number of VISIBLE spots has dropped to half of what the f10.7 flux would indicate it should have been. |
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Post by vukcevic on Sept 12, 2012 19:08:33 GMT
Dr. S.
How would you evaluate the L&P impact (if any) on the strength and frequency of CMEs ?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Sept 13, 2012 13:44:46 GMT
Dr. S. How would you evaluate the L&P impact (if any) on the strength and frequency of CMEs ? To first order: none [so far] |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Dec 31, 2012 22:22:10 GMT
The L&P data seems to indicate a possible "peak" has been passed in the L&P effect. It seems to indicate that the magnetic fields have begun to increase, and umbral intensity has started to decrease in recent months... (The intensity of sunspots appears to be slowly returning to normal, or at least not getting lower.) Is this true, and is this significant?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jan 2, 2013 7:03:05 GMT
The L&P data seems to indicate a possible "peak" has been passed in the L&P effect. It seems to indicate that the magnetic fields have begun to increase, and umbral intensity has started to decrease in recent months... (The intensity of sunspots appears to be slowly returning to normal, or at least not getting lower.) Is this true, and is this significant? I don't think it is significant. There will be a flattening out as the bottom below 1500 Gauss is disappearing. This may be happening already. But it is too early to be sure. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2013 3:35:43 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard:
Has the flattening out started? Or are we still in a downward phase in ref to the Gauss readings?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jan 19, 2013 4:44:47 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: Has the flattening out started? Or are we still in a downward phase in ref to the Gauss readings? still going down |
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 4, 2013 22:57:20 GMT
Another month has passed. Is it still going down?
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Post by justsomeguy on Mar 5, 2013 21:56:18 GMT
The L&P data seems to indicate a possible "peak" has been passed in the L&P effect. It seems to indicate that the magnetic fields have begun to increase, and umbral intensity has started to decrease in recent months... (The intensity of sunspots appears to be slowly returning to normal, or at least not getting lower.) Is this true, and is this significant? But couldnt this be the minima coming? The same effect seemed to happen last minima if you look at the data. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Mar 6, 2013 17:42:45 GMT
The most current L & P data is continuing to suggest that the peak of the L & P effect has passed for now. Suspiciously the peak the of effect appears to have been closely associated with the cycle 24 solar max. If the data continues to trend lower, we will have to wait until cycle 25 to find out if the effect, whatever it is, waxes and wanes with a cycle. Only seven or eight years to wait. Film at eleven. 2020.
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