Global warming temperature predictions

[steve]

On the old message board there was a temperature prediction thread.

solarcycle24.forumco.com/topic~TOPIC_ID~147.asp

As the board will go soon, can I suggest you copy your predictions to this thread.

Ideally, please put old predictions in quotes, and give the date you made it.

New predictions welcome as well.

[steve]

On 03/27/2008 : 23:14:33 only5teve (my old name) made the following prediction:

Based on HadCRUT3 my warmers prediction is:
0.3C this year (a bit warmer than 2000)
0.4C next year
0.6C (warmer than 1998) in 2010

I'm assuming that the La Nina will weaken by the end of the year and we'll head towards average or El Nino conditions over the following 2 years.

[Belushi TD]

Here's my prediction/ (New, of course.)

By 2010, we're looking at at least 0.5 degrees C below the average of the last 30 years. (I think thats what I'm trying to say.)

Belushi TD

[qam1]

I predict the tempertures will continue to drop, by 2018 we will be below the 20th century average.

This will be shown in the RSS/UAH/Hadley numbers.

However, I also predict no matter how far the temps drop, the GISS/NOAA will continue like they have been doing in the past two years to fudge their numbers to show global warming to be continuing if not accelerating.

My prediction for the remainder of this year is the GISS/NOAA will continue to fudge their numbers just enough to make 2008 one of the top ten warmest years and even though the other outlets will show it not to be, all the world's headlines will still blare "2008 was still one of the warmest years so we still need more taxes and socialist programs". Unfortunately this will be enough to keep the AGW gravy train going.

[kiwistonewall]

I predict that the mean temperature will be stable, or may even rise slightly, but that the daily Maximum will trend lower, and the daily minimum will be higher. (Cooler days from reduced solar activity and the effect thereof on cloud formation etc, and warmer nights from increased greenhouse effect.)

So the solar minimum (which may continue for 60 years) will be unlike those of the previous two cycles (at approx 180 yr intervals) in that extremes will be reduced.

(So I'm claiming both AGW (nights++) and Solar minimum (days--)

There is great danger of a negative tipping point towards a serious cooling, but thanks to the great work of our oil & coal folk, I think we may have adverted that, and we may owe them great thanks, and offer to repaint their power station smoke stacks.

Have I covered everything?

[msphar]

you skipped over the kayakers.

in memoriam:

www.andrewmcauley.com/

[duwayne]

Sept 17, 2008 11:03:57 GMT steve said:

On 03/27/2008 : 23:14:33 only5teve (my old name) made the following prediction:

Based on HadCRUT3 my warmers prediction is:
0.3C this year (a bit warmer than 2000)
0.4C next year
0.6C (warmer than 1998) in 2010

I'm assuming that the La Nina will weaken by the end of the year and we'll head towards average or El Nino conditions over the following 2 years.

Steve, why would there be a warming rate of 20C per century in 2010 without an El Nino?

[steve]

Duwayne, it's a bit of fun to lighten the climate doom gloom. The 0.6C is a reversion to a 0.1-0.2C per decade current trend since the steady spell we're having is merely natural variability.

Anyway, less discussion and more predictions/guesses please.

[duwayne]

Here's my prediction copied from the old forum. In summary, my prediction is a 0.3C UAH anomaly for 2007 through 2037 plus or minus the temporary affects of ENSO (La Nina and El Nino), minus the affects of volcanic eruptions and meteorites and possibly minus the affects of a dimming of the sun, if any.

Quote from the Old Solar Cycle 24 forum:
Here’s my Global Warming trend prediction for the rest of this century based on the UAH anomaly.
Current (2007) 0.3C
2037 0.3C
2067 0.7C
2097 0.7C

I arrive at this prediction as follows ( I'll call this the MaxCon 1.0 Global Climate Model prediction):

Combine all Global Warming “Forcers” into 2 categories, Ocean Currents (PDO, AMO, ENSO, etc.) and All Others. Over the 30 year period 1977 to 2007 Global Temperatures increased 0.4C (least squares fit) with Ocean Currents forcing up. NASA says Ocean Currents have about a 60 year cycle with an up leg which just ended followed by a down leg. And, according to NASA, during the current down leg Ocean Current forcing will tend to totally offset the All Others forcing resulting in flat temperatures. The Ocean Currents oscillate such that up leg forcing roughly offsets the down legs. Therefore the Ocean Current half cycle alone causes ½ of 0.4C or 0.2C of warming on the up leg and 0.2C of cooling on the down leg. All Others forcing causes a steady 0.2C warming per 30 years. As a result there are alternating 30 year periods of no warming and .4C warming.

The forecast above is the Trend Forecast. Monthly (and yearly) surface temperatures are temporarily affected by ENSO by as much as +0.7C in a strong El Nino in any given month and -.7C by a strong La Nina. Thus during ENSO events actual temperatures will oscillate widely around the trend. For example, the current trend anomaly for March 2008 is 0.3C from a least squares fit of the last 30 years. But a moderate La Nina has pushed the temperature below trend by about 0.3C to nearly zero. A strong El Nino month in 2037 could show a 1.0C anomaly and a strong La Nina month could show a minus 0.4C anomaly. There are other smaller Ocean Current fluctuations which will cause smaller deviations from trend in any given month, but they are insignificant in the longer term.

Since CO2 forcing is in the All Others category which forces at 0.7C per century and there was a Global Temperature increase prior to the recent uptrend in CO2 concentration, it’s likely that the CO2 forcing is less than 0.5C per century. This would be logical if there is no significant positive “Feedback Effect”.

If the sun “dims” for a number of years (fewer than normal sunspots and reduced overall solar activity) as some believe or there is prolonged volcanic activity or a large meteorite hits then Global temperatures could be much lower than predicted above.
Edited by - duwayne on 05/12/2008 14:25:11

[tacoman25]

I'm not going to go into specifics, because I think that's foolhardy (but admittedly fun) at this point, but I will say this: if the -PDO phase follows past phases and lasts for 20-30 years and the AMO soon follows suit, and SC24 and SC25 are both weaker than recent cycles...no way we see any global warming for at least 30 years. And I would put a 75% chance of temperatures 10 years from now being cooler than they currently are.

[norpag]

Posted - 03/23/2008 : 03:31:08
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I invite those of a sporting disposition to post their Global Mean Temp forecasts into 2010 with a brief statement of method used for the prediction.I especially hope the AGW chaps will post.
Here's mine for starters - using Britains CRU 2008 current average of + 0.125 as a starter. Norpag modestly predicts:
+ or - 0.1 degree change until Oct 2008 with average about 0.125.
Oct 2008 - May 2009 a 0.5 cooling giving a - .375 where it stays until Jan 2010. then another 0.2 degrees cooling until May 2010 = - 0.575
where it stays until end 2010. A bit chilly ?
Basis for forecast is the Oulu Neutron Monitor data + a time constant system delay of + 3 years.Neutron count is up 14% since Jan 2004 in stages.

The above was the starting post of this thread from back in March.In retrospect I did not allow sufficiently for the end of the La Nina and also for the effect of the NH summer on overall global temps.As my forecast anticipated , Solar cycle 24 has not kicked off. Therefore future changes are still as forecast.
Adjustung upwards by 0.15 for the end La Nina and NH summer my predictions to 2010 would now be ( Hadcrut 3)
May 2009 - 0.225
May 2010 - 0.425

In addition I suggest that CO2 levels will follow SSTs by about 5 years and start to fall in 2009.
Solar Cycles
23 - 24 min early 2010
24 max 2016 SSN 50 - 60
24-25 min 2022
25 max 2028 SSN 80-90
Still looks chilly. Next 6 months will be very entertaining one way or the other.

[Belushi TD]

Prediction: -0.75 Degrees C

Method: WAG

Belushi TD

[socold]

Hadcrut3
2005 0.475C
2006 0.421C
2007 0.399C
2008 0.320C +-0.05C
2009 0.42C +-0.1C
2010 0.44C +-0.1C

[byz]

Sept 17, 2008 11:03:57 GMT steve said:

On 03/27/2008 : 23:14:33 only5teve (my old name) made the following prediction:

Based on HadCRUT3 my warmers prediction is:
0.3C this year (a bit warmer than 2000)
0.4C next year
0.6C (warmer than 1998) in 2010

I'm assuming that the La Nina will weaken by the end of the year and we'll head towards average or El Nino conditions over the following 2 years.

Oh wow I was looking at some old threads as it's quiet.

Do you remember this one Steve?

So how did you do ;D

[steve]

I most certainly do remember this. The prediction was made in March 2008 after the notably cold January and February (remember the "cooling equivalent to a whole century of warming" stories.)

2008: I said 0.3, HadCRUT3 said 0.312
2009: I said 0.4, HadCRUT3 said 0.439
2010: I said 0.6, HadCRUT3 are currently saying 0.546 after 7 months of data.

If 2010 cools off a few tenths, socold probably beats me (he was ahead after 2009). If 2010 warms, or stays the same, I think I'll try to claim victory.

hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual

Sadly, not many "coolers" played along with the game.