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Post by missouriboy on Mar 3, 2021 16:21:50 GMT
UAH global lower troposphere temps are in for February. A slight bounce to a +0.20 C anomaly ... up from +0.12 C in January.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 7, 2021 18:51:03 GMT
A Joe Bastardi special for CFACT.... "Major February global temperature drop reveals the real climate control knob
By now all of you know my belief ( bias) that it’s the oceans, and more so the tropical oceans, that are the biggest control knob of the weather and climate. If you really wanted to make this a controlled classroom experiment (nature is not a classroom with easy controls) then I venture to say that the real way to know man’s influence is to have SST’s return to where they were in the 1970s, give it a couple of years for the water vapor adjustment, ( and if I am right. co2 will adjust as warmer oceans outsource it, so the outsourcing to the air will decrease) and see the difference there. And there you may be able to make an irrefutable argument for man’s contribution, Unfortunately for those who will not look at anything else, that is likely to be quite small, but on the other hand, unlike the warming we have had which is really in the coldest driest places and more so at their coldest driest time of the year, you would likely find the lions share of what warming would be where life thrives.. As small as that has been, less than .25C of the numbers we see all the time that tell us that at. a bit over 59 degrees the planet is overheating, it is liable to be even less detectable and certainly as or more adaptable than what we seemed to have adapted to nicely here.
But the fear of course is runaway warming which is interesting since it counters Le Chateliers, which I never hear anyone bring up, most likely because it’s a simple explanation. And a simple explanation would impact a lot of things relying on a done deal, complex explanation that the public must accept because they could never understand."More here> www.cfact.org/2021/03/07/major-february-global-temperature-drop-reveals-the-real-climate-control-knob/
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Post by duwayne on Mar 7, 2021 21:40:32 GMT
It’s interesting that Mann would publish a paper downplaying the AMO at this time. The warmists haven’t wanted to give the AMO any credit for contributing to the increase in global temperatures from 1977 to 2007 because this reduces the amount of warming that can be attributed to greenhouse gases. But, if global temperatures continue to remain flat over the next few years, they will need an explanation. It is still a little early, but as the global temperatures fail to produce the havoc they were predicting, I expected they would use the AMO to scare people. I expected them to say “Sure, right now temperatures are flat, but once the AMO enters its warming phase, the AMO plus the runaway greenhouse gas warming will destroy us all. After adjusting our models for the AMO, It’s even worse than we thought.” Of course, since Mann’s a warmist, he can flip-flop any time he wants with full support. On the other hand, if the AMO fizzles out and temperatures climb rapidly over the next 15 years, Mann may be right. In my opinion there is a lot riding on the AMO cool phase keeping the temperatures low. judithcurry.com/2021/03/06/canceling-the-amo/#more-27202link
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 8, 2021 10:59:09 GMT
It’s interesting that Mann would publish a paper downplaying the AMO at this time. The warmists haven’t wanted to give the AMO any credit for contributing to the increase in global temperatures from 1977 to 2007 because this reduces the amount of warming that can be attributed to greenhouse gases. But, if global temperatures continue to remain flat over the next few years, they will need an explanation. It is still a little early, but as the global temperatures fail to produce the havoc they were predicting, I expected they would use the AMO to scare people. I expected them to say “Sure, right now temperatures are flat, but once the AMO enters its warming phase, the AMO plus the runaway greenhouse gas warming will destroy us all. After adjusting our models for the AMO, It’s even worse than we thought.” Of course, since Mann’s a warmist, he can flip-flop any time he wants with full support. On the other hand, if the AMO fizzles out and temperatures climb rapidly over the next 15 years, Mann may be right. In my opinion there is a lot riding on the AMO cool phase keeping the temperatures low. judithcurry.com/2021/03/06/canceling-the-amo/#more-27202linkWhile the AMO seems important to regional temperatures in Western Europe (Chart 1), the North Polar region and the Central-Eastern US, global temperatures as per the UAH proxy do not follow the AMO. UAH tropical and Global Lower Troposphere temperatures appear to follow ENSO with a lag (Chart 3). In turn, spikes along the AMO macro curve appear to respond to and lag El Ninos (Chart2). There is no dramatic jump in global temperatures that correspond with the large 1993-97 runup in the AMO.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 6, 2021 17:35:14 GMT
With March's data in, the average UAH updated anomaly for 2007 through March 2021 is 0.1C. This compares to my prediction for a 2007-2037 average of 0.1C. So far things are on track. We are nearing the half-way point.
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