Global warming temperature predictions Aug 19, 2010 0:15:50 GMT
Post by socold on Aug 19, 2010 0:15:50 GMT
Akasofu says: "The red line is a smoothed version of the 5-year mean in Figures 1a and Figure 1b"
Figure 1a and 1b are the GISTEMP meteorological station record. The anomalies also match so he hasn't changed the baseline.
The red dot with the green arrow that Akasofu draws is the GISTEMP meteorological record for 2008. 2009 was 0.72C. 2010 so far averages about 0.88C. That's above the IPCC high end in Akasofu's graph.
And that doesn't even go to pointing out that GISTEMP is so far out there, doesn't even make sense in places like the Arctic.
Akasofu's graph is based on GISTEMP - and not even GISTEMP global but GISTEMP meteorological stations only, excluding the oceans. To compare like with like he should have used a global land+sea record, not a land only record. It's bizzare why he chose to use GISTEMP land.
And yet while defending his graph you slate GISTEMP meteorological record. That's a new consistency low. If you were being consistent you should say hang on a second, now that I know he's based his conclusions on GISTEMP which I don't believe, I will therefore not accept his graph anymore. But no, you like his conclusions too much you can't let go.
Update: if he had used a global record (land+sea) he wouldn't have got a nice oscillation around a linear trend. Of course it would be cynical of me to think he deliberately cherrypicked GISTEMP Met because it fit the result he wanted. Slighting scientists for making dubious choices is more your department, so get cracking. I expect comparisons between Akasofu and lysenko any second...