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Post by socold on May 13, 2010 21:51:27 GMT
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Post by hairball on May 13, 2010 23:31:49 GMT
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Post by yohoho on May 14, 2010 3:36:54 GMT
bye bye el nino. too bad you gave false hope to teh believerz.
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Post by twawki on May 14, 2010 3:59:20 GMT
Yep all the signs are lining up - El Nino is crashing, SST dropping, Solar flux down to 69 again!, Katla rumbling - time to make contingency plans for the cold ahead.
Joe Bastardi predicting a wicked 2010/2011 winter and farmers almanac will prob. do the same.
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Post by twawki on May 14, 2010 18:39:42 GMT
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Post by magellan on May 14, 2010 18:59:59 GMT
Right. I should have clarified by saying it is unlikely the ONI for MAM will drop below .5. Again, if it does, that would be "unprecedented". TLT rise is still hanging on which tells me there is still more OHC being whisked away into space the missing sink the deeper ocean.  |
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Post by glc on May 15, 2010 0:25:25 GMT
TLT rise is still hanging on which tells me there is still more OHC being whisked away into space.....
Ok - so now all this heat gone out into space what level do you expect UAH anomalies to fall to. 1980 levels? 1990 levels?
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Post by hairball on May 15, 2010 0:44:51 GMT
GLC, most here accept that increased CO2 will warm the atmosphere all things being equal.
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Post by magellan on May 15, 2010 3:04:49 GMT
TLT rise is still hanging on which tells me there is still more OHC being whisked away into space..... Ok - so now all this heat gone out into space what level do you expect UAH anomalies to fall to. 1980 levels? 1990 levels? The closest I've come to making a gutsy prediction was betting 2009 would not be in the top five warmest years, knowing it would be close, but not knowing with high certainty. It was solely based on historical patterns/trends/ocean data, and probability, some of which I posted here and you ridiculed. This is why I chuckled when someone thought it a big deal predicting 2009 would be warmer than 2008 when in 100 years there has only been one period exceeding three consecutive years of cooler temps. This El Nino peaked higher than I thought it would and in fact questioned whether it would even come to be (prior to October) because it was forming quite late. However, I did say it would fade quickly, earlier and would not reach the level of 1998. Do you recall? When having a disagreement with Astromet, the numbers were not adding up to a prolonged strong El Nino even back in Dec/Jan. He's been insisting El Nino would persist into the year's end or next Spring. That much I confidently said was wrong, and still do. If you know what temps will be in one year or five years, by all means share with us. I haven't mustered the energy to spend the hours doing it all over again for 2010, plus the UAH update kinda threw a wrench in the works. I wouldn't be posting in a forum having such predictive power; I'd be collecting checks from would be customers. All I will say is something is different this time around compared to 1998, one being OHC is not increasing as it was then, but I'm not convinced of a strong persistent La Nina forming. Will 2010 exceed 1998? I don't think so. Will temps crash? Maybe, the metrics look to be possibly lining up for that. It's happened before. Do I know with any certainty? No, not yet. Do you? |
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Post by icefisher on May 15, 2010 3:13:27 GMT
TLT rise is still hanging on which tells me there is still more OHC being whisked away into space..... Ok - so now all this heat gone out into space what level do you expect UAH anomalies to fall to. 1980 levels? 1990 levels? I don't necessarily think given the normal natural progression of temperatures that we might see 1980 levels for maybe a few hundred more years. Now 1990 temperatures might be a possibility by say 2025 to 2035 figuring a cooling rate of about .06 to .1degC/decade. To get that looking at historical Hadcrut suggests you need something like a Dalton minimum running for 15 to 30 years. |
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Post by magellan on May 15, 2010 3:56:05 GMT
TLT rise is still hanging on which tells me there is still more OHC being whisked away into space..... Ok - so now all this heat gone out into space what level do you expect UAH anomalies to fall to. 1980 levels? 1990 levels? I don't necessarily think given the normal natural progression of temperatures that we might see 1980 levels for maybe a few hundred more years. Now 1990 temperatures might be a possibility by say 2025 to 2035 figuring a cooling rate of about .06 to .1degC/decade. To get that looking at historical Hadcrut suggests you need something like a Dalton minimum running for 15 to 30 years. He knows that, and by setting the bait he's hoping someone will bite. |
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Post by scpg02 on May 15, 2010 4:34:53 GMT
I don't necessarily think given the normal natural progression of temperatures that we might see 1980 levels for maybe a few hundred more years. Now 1990 temperatures might be a possibility by say 2025 to 2035 figuring a cooling rate of about .06 to .1degC/decade. To get that looking at historical Hadcrut suggests you need something like a Dalton minimum running for 15 to 30 years. He knows that, and by setting the bait he's hoping someone will bite. I bite. |
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Post by dartman321 on May 15, 2010 6:31:55 GMT
Let's reflect back on the origin of this stream, the Astromet's lengthy and detailed prognostication that centered on the following..."This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru and to the coasts of southern California."
What happened? Hubris?
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Post by glc on May 15, 2010 8:28:29 GMT
GLC, most here accept that increased CO2 will warm the atmosphere all things being equal. I don't think that's true. Some do - quite a lot don't. |
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Post by glc on May 15, 2010 8:58:15 GMT
The closest I've come to making a gutsy prediction was betting 2009 would not be in the top five warmest years, knowing it would be close, but not knowing with high certainty. It was solely based on historical patterns/trends/ocean data, and probability, some of which I posted here and you ridiculed. Magellan Firstly, I didn't ridicule anything. Secondly, you appear to be wrong See hadobs.metoffice.com/indicators/index.html which says Surface temperature data sets
Q. Which were the 10 warmest years on record?
A. In the Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit data set HadCRUT3 the 10 warmest years on record were:
1998 0.52°C
2005 0.47°C
2003 0.46°C
2002 0.46°C
2009 0.44°C 
2004 0.43°C
2006 0.43°C
2007 0.40°C
2001 0.40°C
1997 0.36°C Thirdly, it is not actually possible to detect any difference in the global temperatures for 2004, 2006 and 2009. There is not a statistically significant difference between them. Any one year could have been warmer (or cooler) than either of the others.
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