*EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011*

[socold]

At least you've pinned your flag to cooling. When temperatures continue their increase over the coming decade and beyond you will be left with no excuse.

[icefisher]

Jul 14, 2010 20:43:34 GMT socold said:

At least you've pinned your flag to cooling. When temperatures continue their increase over the coming decade and beyond you will be left with no excuse.

You have that wrong Socold. I am allowing for up to a degree and a quarter warming over the next century. I think you have to be crazy to believe mankind has zero impact on the warmth of the planet. I think the only way to avoid that is to like massed lemmings run off a cliff.

My centerline prediction for 2008 to 2017 is +.38 down from the last decade of .42. It is so small because of the underlying .05C/decade warming from the LIA.

So if I were to defend that as a good prediction I guess I should be allowed .2 deviation + or - since the modelers have demanded that much latitude for a decade. So anything between +.58 and +.18 is within the realm of possibility.

I view the upcoming weak non trend gaining prediction from IPCC for a .62 (deferring gaining on the trend until later) suggests that they will want once again to claim anything above .42 as consistent with their faith (another decade of flat temperatures) as they did last time. I see that as a compromise between calling it as they once saw it and recognizing natural variation.

[jurinko]

To the "long term trend" thing, the linear trend for warm, cold and warm period of sinusoidal curve is positive, even it does not increase at all. Arctic record, the area where additional CO2 should introduce the strongest warming, looks very much like that.



After we will finish the cold PDO/AMO curve, then we can start painting trends. Now it is like claiming the days are getting warmer, since the linear trend between midnight and next noon is going up.

[hairball]

[kiwistonewall]

La Nina settles in strongly:
wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/30/frozen-tropics-as-la-nina-takes-hold/#more-22764

[kiwistonewall]

The Monthly PDO index has also gone negative again (June)

From Australia BOM
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Pacific Ocean in early stages of a La Niña event

Issued on Wednesday 21 July 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures continued to cool over the past fortnight, and are now approaching levels typical of a La Niña. Similarly, other ENSO indicators are also at or exceeding La Niña thresholds. As computer models predict the central Pacific will continue to cool over the coming months, it is now highly likely that the Pacific is in the early stages of a La Niña event, and that 2010 will be considered a La Niña year.

Signs of an emerging La Niña event have been apparent in the equatorial Pacific for several months. Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled steadily throughout the year and are now more than 1°C cooler than average in some areas on the equator. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has increased in value and is currently around +14, trade winds continue to be stronger than average and cloudiness has remained suppressed over the central Pacific. All of these key indicators are at levels typical of the early stages of a La Niña event.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are typically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April).

[trbixler]

Maybe clouds do make a difference, Svensmark would be proud.

"Still Cooling: Sea Surface Temperatures thru August 18, 2010"





www.drroyspencer.com/2010/08/still-cooling-sea-surface-temperatures-thru-august-18-2010/

[AstroMet]

Jul 13, 2010 12:46:54 GMT nautonnier said:

A Socold "long period" is from the Little Ice Age through to the present - this provides a satisfying warming 'trend'

The CO₂ rules the universe people are hastily rushing out papers that would have been laughed out of a thesis defense only a few years ago in order to account for any and all warming periods - for example the 'early humans killed mammoths leading to warmer climates as it allowed birch trees to grow' hypothesis. (Strange no attempt to quantify the size of the human or mammoth population - no talk of all that methane from vegetable munching mammoths.... )

We are witnessing the death of science.

@ Nautonnier - Perhaps not, however, we are witnessing the end of the brand of climate science which has been practiced in the past 30 years.

Nonetheless, La Nina is here, as I forecasted over four years ago astronomically. Now, most conventional meteorologists and climatologists are trying to deal with events on the ground, or rather, in the Earth's atmosphere.

By my calculations several years ago, I found this La Nina that will dominate about nine months of 2011 to be significant, a strong enough event that will bring about record cold temperatures, and a wetter, cooler climate - just in time for winter in the northern hemisphere.

If anyone cares to observe: at this time in early October, at higher elevations in the northern hemisphere, the first snows will have arrived this week as Polish and Russian scientists argue how severe this coming winter 2011 will be:

See ~ wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/04/fight-brewing-between-polish-and-russian-forecasters-over-a-potentially-record-cold-winter-ahead/

My long-range forecast called for La Nina on the back end of El Nino, which has occurred on time. This winter season in the hemisphere, according to my outlook remains the same - dominated by La Nina with much colder and wetter than normal winter conditions.

I have also forecasted a higher-than-normal rate of sickness related to La Nina, as the colder/wetter climate sets in and alters weather throughout the northern hemisphere expect many people to fall ill.

The cold & wet conditions will be at their height from early February through late April 2011 according to my astronomical calculations.

[steve]

ahem

astromet said:

EL NINO 2010/2011

For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru and to the coasts of southern California.


La Nina Anomaly in 2011?

Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.

[AstroMet]

Oct 5, 2010 15:08:09 GMT steve said:

ahem

astromet said:

EL NINO 2010/2011

For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru and to the coasts of southern California.


La Nina Anomaly in 2011?

Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.

And, your point is what Steve? If you look at the real world weather in 2010, this is exactly what we have seen - heavy deluges, and extensive flooding throughout the world.

This is the impact of planetary bodies relative to the earth, and the earth's climate always responds.

I was the only forecaster I know of that accurately forecasted El Nino and La Nina - from 2006 (four years ago) for the time cycle the world is now experiencing.

And more is to come...

The La Nina I forecasted can easily be seen growing, and will have great impact on at least 50% of the world's weather in 2011.

For North America and Europe, my astronomical calculations show that the months of February, March & April 2011 are the months when we will see La Nina full force, with a cooler summer to follow next year.

[glc]

And, your point is what Steve? If you look at the real world weather in 2010, this is exactly what we have seen - heavy deluges, and extensive flooding throughout the world.

I think Steve's point is that your prediction was garbage.


This is the impact of planetary bodies relative to the earth, and the earth's climate always responds.

Hmmm.


I was the only forecaster I know of that accurately forecasted El Nino and La Nina - from 2006 (four years ago) for the time cycle the world is now experiencing.

Since ENSO events occur at frequencies of anything between 2-7 years predicting one 4 years in advance isn't terribly impressive - particularly as you seem to want to claim an error of 18+ months as a success. In late 2008 I predicted 2009 would be warmer than 2008 and that 2010 would be warmer than both due to the likelihood of an El Nino.


And more is to come...

The La Nina I forecasted can easily be seen growing, and will have great impact on at least 50% of the world's weather in 2011.

Really! Are you telling us that La Nina will affect the world's weather. We are certainly priviledged that you have chosen to share your knowledge and expertise with us.

For North America and Europe, my astronomical calculations show that the months of February, March & April 2011 are the months when we will see La Nina full force, with a cooler summer to follow next year.

You're a bit late. We had those same predictions about 3 months ago from the model runs.

[socold]

I am still thinking the drop into solar minimum has impacted all the metrics downwards (sea level, ocean heat content, global surface and satellite temperature, although im more certain about the last two) so I am expecting now that the solar minimum has leveled out (and ghg still rising) that we are in the midst of a large acceleration upward (in all metrics) which should be apparent within the next few years (it's a matter of having enough data to spot it - if the records were clean of ENSO, etc I think we'd be able to detect it now). Once this La Nina's passed we should be able to compare the metrics like-for-like easier and see where we are.

[steve]

astromet

And, your point is what Steve? If you look at the real world weather in 2010, this is exactly what we have seen - heavy deluges, and extensive flooding throughout the world.

My point is that you are claiming accuracy for aspects of your forecast without pointing out that you said El Niño would continue throughout 2010, and La Niña would start in 2011.

Also, I can't seem to find your predictions for the most notable weather of the year such as the very cold South American weather, the deluges in Pakistan, the heat waves in Russia or the level of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic.

If you are going to make month-by-month and day-by-day predictions, you should acknowledge the misses as well as the hits. Eg. even if any of the very great details of the following forecast turn out to be correct, they are predicated on El Niño having continued into winter 2010 which has not happened.

October 2010's El Nino climate for the East U.S. Coast is wet, windy, with warmer than average temperatures. Tropical temperatures with near constant precipitation shows localized flooding in the months of October and November 2010 for the Mid-Atlantic states. The fall months of 2010 are long, wetter than normal, warmer than normal and mostly cloudy for the eastern third of the U.S.

Wet, foggy, and clammy climate continues into November 2010, with moderate to above average warm temperatures, with a combination of very wet, warm, and sometimes windy conditions pervading through the month. The second half of November sees clearing skies, above average temperatures but with increasingly windy conditions.

The wet weather since October becomes less common after November 16, 2010, giving way to bright blue skies sometimes interrupted by sudden rains and gusting winds frequently during the month. The last three (3) days of November 2010 is colder, wet, with damaging winds, and very stormy.

[nautonnier]

Oct 5, 2010 23:17:27 GMT socold said:

I am still thinking the drop into solar minimum has impacted all the metrics downwards (sea level, ocean heat content, global surface and satellite temperature, although im more certain about the last two) so I am expecting now that the solar minimum has leveled out (and ghg still rising) that we are in the midst of a large acceleration upward (in all metrics) which should be apparent within the next few years (it's a matter of having enough data to spot it - if the records were clean of ENSO, etc I think we'd be able to detect it now). Once this La Nina's passed we should be able to compare the metrics like-for-like easier and see where we are.

"I am still thinking the drop into solar minimum has impacted all the metrics downwards (sea level, ocean heat content, global surface and satellite temperature, although im more certain about the last two)"

An interesting thought SoCold. Perhaps you could tell glc what the mechanism is for that as he feels there is no correlation at all of climate with solar minima.

[glc]

Oct 6, 2010 0:24:02 GMT nautonnier said:

Oct 5, 2010 23:17:27 GMT socold said:

I am still thinking the drop into solar minimum has impacted all the metrics downwards (sea level, ocean heat content, global surface and satellite temperature, although im more certain about the last two) so I am expecting now that the solar minimum has leveled out (and ghg still rising) that we are in the midst of a large acceleration upward (in all metrics) which should be apparent within the next few years (it's a matter of having enough data to spot it - if the records were clean of ENSO, etc I think we'd be able to detect it now). Once this La Nina's passed we should be able to compare the metrics like-for-like easier and see where we are.

"I am still thinking the drop into solar minimum has impacted all the metrics downwards (sea level, ocean heat content, global surface and satellite temperature, although im more certain about the last two)"

An interesting thought SoCold. Perhaps you could tell glc what the mechanism is for that as he feels there is no correlation at all of climate with solar minima.

An interesting thought SoCold. Perhaps you could tell glc what the mechanism is for that as he feels there is no correlation at all of climate with solar minima.


Never said that at all. There is ~0.1% difference in TSI between solar max and solar min which would account for a change of ~0.1 deg over the cycle. In other words we should have cooled about 0.1 deg since ~2001 due to the solar cycle. The difference between grand maxima and grand minima is possibly slightly more but the biggest effect of solar variability seems to be a shift in weather patterns which means some regions cool while others warm. Solar theorists mistake these shifts for periods of cooling (and warming).