|
|
Post by dartman321 on Oct 23, 2010 13:42:14 GMT
I agree Steve. "Astro's" original forecast here, and several others he posted to other blogs, was an exercise of ego. He was absent from this blog for many months while his prognostications collapsed under the weight of his own hubris. He now re-appears in an effort to recast his rusty, tarnished, damaged, image. He made statements in other blogs that our earth was directly affected by the movement of stars in other solar systems. He chides others for not having the courage that he has, to make their own forecasts/prognostications. I for one will stand on the ledge, arms at my side, safe in the knowledge that I cannot fly, watching "Astro" hurtling into the abyss, futilely flapping his arms, and shouting "At least I tried.....and........I still think that if I flap my arms in a different manner, I'm sure to prove you wrong"......................................................................................slpat!
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Oct 23, 2010 16:55:56 GMT
So, after three or four times of me asking, are you finally going to confirm that Feb-Apr 2011 MEI will be below -2 (which is the current level)? You are avoiding the question because you know I will remember the answer in April 2011. It is funny that you incorrectly criticise me for post-judging your forecast when you have already decided that you correctly predicted ENSO four years ago. The consensus of the forum is that your view, that El Niño would persist into 2011 and have a strong influence on autumn weather 2010, is wrong, as is your prediction for Indonesian drought (ironic as you used Indonesian flood to validate your forecast), and Mississippi flood. You also failed to predict three huge weather stories of 2010 (Pakistan monsoon, Russian heatwave, Andean freeze). I have not said you are a charlatan. I am drawing comparisons between your posts and the methods of charlatans. Your examples of solar system physics, and your aversion to discussing solar system physics suggests that your knowledge of the solar system is very much at the layman's level - so slightly below mine. Obviously Steve, you don't read your own vapid comments. I also point out that you continue not to understand the workings of ENSO whatsoever because your mind is so indoctrinated by AGW craziness and the computer modelers who continue to show their ignorance of climate and weather. You do not observe the world's weather of 2010 - which I predicted would be hotter than normal in the northern hemisphere (it was) and, furthermore, you call "wrong" a forecast that not only predicted ENSO in advance, but you also call "wrong" a forecast of a period of time (2011) which is not yet here. How many times do you have to be told that El Nino and La Nina (ENSO) is part and parcel of the same climate event? One is warm and wet, and the other is cold and wet. What is so difficult about you getting this? Again, the late astrometeorologist Dr. Theodor Landscheidt stated, "Anomalous warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of surface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific occurs at irregular intervals (2 to 7 years) in conjunction with the Southern Oscillation (SO), a massive see-sawing of atmospheric pressure between the south-eastern and the western tropical Pacific.
The coordinated El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), also including La Niña, is the strongest source of natural variability in the global climate system. Anomalies in the global temperature (positive or negative deviations from a defined mean temperature) are primarily driven by ENSO events (Peixoto and Oort, 1992)."So, this proves you are not only unscientific, but quite out of your own mind when it comes to your own comments on ENSO and my forecast - which was accurate, and on time, for ENSO is here, as I forecasted. There is no "consensus," on my forecast Steve, just your opinions, ideology, and bias, which accounts for exactly zero. This has no place in climate science, and it is quite typical of a person who does not understand how climate and weather is produced, much less is able to forecast it in advance. I haven't seen one forecast from you, anywhere, so I find it hard to believe that you are able to do such a thing, unless you call commenting a forecast - which it is not. My knowledge of the solar system far exceeds your own, as I have proven. I have not a clue as to why you believe your knowledge is even at the level of a "layman," because you have not shown knowledge even at that level. It does not take" courage to forecast, just common sense, experience, and knowing the principle of astrophysical to geophysical, which you've not shown to understand, nor to accept. No matter: your ideology and opinion does not have any effect on the facts of climate and weather. None. Again, you do not show any experience, nor knowledge of synthesis, and you do not forecast weather or climate. All you do is comment, and badly at that. That is not forecasting Steve. What is so pathetic is the fact that you would buy - hook, line, and sinker, the lie of anthropogenic global warming - and yet presume to be knowledgeable of what is truly behind global warming - and that isn't humanity. I could care less how jealous you are of my forecasts, that is the realm of a child, not a man, and it remains shocking just how far from the truth of the climate and weather you are, considering how you pine on about models, as if this will produce a forecast for you. It will not. Models do not forecast - forecasters do - and until you accept this, and learn from those who show knowledge and accuracy, you will pick up nothing because you've been wholly indoctrinated by the AGW liars who have shown they do not belong anywhere near climate science, and are even further from becoming advanced forecasters. |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Oct 23, 2010 16:56:13 GMT
I agree Steve. "Astro's" original forecast here, and several others he posted to other blogs, was an exercise of ego. He was absent from this blog for many months while his prognostications collapsed under the weight of his own hubris. He now re-appears in an effort to recast his rusty, tarnished, damaged, image. He made statements in other blogs that our earth was directly affected by the movement of stars in other solar systems. He chides others for not having the courage that he has, to make their own forecasts/prognostications. I for one will stand on the ledge, arms at my side, safe in the knowledge that I cannot fly, watching "Astro" hurtling into the abyss, futilely flapping his arms, and shouting "At least I tried.....and........I still think that if I flap my arms in a different manner, I'm sure to prove you wrong"......................................................................................slpat! LOL. |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Oct 23, 2010 17:13:01 GMT
Lessons for wannabe charlatan:
- learn a few basic but interesting facts that 80% of the population don't know.
- embellish facts with specious linkages to a jumbled combination of modern scientific ideas and ancient theology.
- repeat ad nauseum, and claim to be able to make predictions based on a deeper understanding.
- make general predictions of things that always happen plus a few specific things that may happen.
- claim success based on the general things happening. Claim super-success when occasionally one of the specific things come up.
- when challenged, clam up - don't get into a discussion about the basic facts you started with because you are at your limit of your knowledge there. Claim greater hidden knowledge. Claim that the challenger is thick. Repeat last step ad nauseum.Well done Steve describing the perfect bio for M Mann or Phil Jones they will offer you a job anytime soon. ;D I know, it's amazing to read these AGW proponents yap on and on about astronomical forecasting when they fail to recognize that all of their own climate and weather comes from space. They treat the Sun as a mere after-thought, with Steve and Glc delivering such blather that it's no wonder climate science has been mucked up by people weighed by silly ideology and opinions but who cannot forecast their own weather. Until they accept the fact that it is the Sun that forces the Earth's climate, they will know nothing, and will forecasting nothing but drivel, and for far too long, that is all that has been coming out of the mouths of AGW proponents, that, and outright lies. |
|
|
|
Post by brunozr on Oct 23, 2010 23:02:59 GMT
I'm from south of Brazil, lat 32ºS, and here the La Niña effects could be seen in the last month. The precipitation are less than the normal, what is a characteristic of La Niña, and the prediction of the meteorological centers here is of La Niña persisting in the southern hemisphere summer(Jan, Feb, Mar). Plantations are starting to be made earlier, to prevent the probable drought in the summer.
Particularly, I believe that La Niña will remain for the next 3 months, but there are some positive perturbations occurring in the field of sea temperatures anomalies. So, there is a small chance of La Niña to be broken and became an El Niño in the beggining of 2011.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Oct 25, 2010 4:44:01 GMT
I'm from south of Brazil, lat 32ºS, and here the La Niña effects could be seen in the last month. The precipitation are less than the normal, what is a characteristic of La Niña, and the prediction of the meteorological centers here is of La Niña persisting in the southern hemisphere summer(Jan, Feb, Mar). Plantations are starting to be made earlier, to prevent the probable drought in the summer. Particularly, I believe that La Niña will remain for the next 3 months, but there are some positive perturbations occurring in the field of sea temperatures anomalies. So, there is a small chance of La Niña to be broken and became an El Niño in the beggining of 2011. Welcome to the board Brunozr! Certainly, this ENSO for 2010-2011 will be noteworthy as I forecasted. The effects will be significant in many ways, not just for the lives lost and property destroyed by the heavy rains and floods from ENSO worldwide, but also the effects on crops. For instance, cotton prices have risen sharply because of these rains, according to one observer in the Southern Plains of the U.S. - "Cotton is likely up due to storms wrecking much of the cotton crop across the south plains. We were on track for a bumper crop this year, but this nasty storm came along in the middle of harvest time and dropped 2-4" of rain, along with hail up to 3.5 in in diameter.
We were on track for a record breaking bumper crop, but now we have lost at least half the crop, maybe more (some was already harvested, about half of the fields on my way to work were already picked).
Some farmers are likely to go under because of this. Lucky ones have already harvested, and will make a killing off of the rapidly rising prices."Economic numbers of damage to properties and crops for 2010 remains to be totaled, but it is my estimation by mid-2011, the numbers will be significant enough to cause commodities to rise. This means higher food and clothing prices next year. My astronomical calculations show a strong La Nina, that is also anomalous on the back-end (a warm spike after the cold?) which you mentioned as a possibility and which I wrote about in my ENSO forecast. This could coincide with the emergence of sunspots leading up to the end of this particular solar minimum, but planetary motions indicate not only solar disturbances of higher than normal magnetic fluctuations to come in the early 2010s, but the continued "extremes of weather" - typical of a world climate transition underway - in this case, from global warming to global cooling. |
|
ZL4DH
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 128
|
Post by ZL4DH on Oct 25, 2010 9:30:02 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by steve on Oct 25, 2010 10:04:31 GMT
astromet
You are misremembering again. The exact quote that included the phrase "hotter than normal" is nothing to do with the whole of the NH 2010:
This seems to be similar to way you misremembered the fact that you forecast drought for Indonesia in 2010 then used the floods in Indonesia to verify your generic forecast for more storms across the world in general.
As Eric Morcambe might have said "I predicted all the right weather, but not *necessarily* for the right time or place".
On the other hand, in early 2008 I *did* predict a record warm year for 2010. If you think you deserve credit for your forecast you should give me credit for mine 8)
You made the elementary mistake of confusing tidal strength with gravitational force! That is a layman error. Other than that you have avoided any discussion on solar system physics by claiming that other people should study it for themselves, which is a somewhat transparent response.
|
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Oct 25, 2010 16:38:15 GMT
astromet You are misremembering again. The exact quote that included the phrase "hotter than normal" is nothing to do with the whole of the NH 2010: This seems to be similar to way you misremembered the fact that you forecast drought for Indonesia in 2010 then used the floods in Indonesia to verify your generic forecast for more storms across the world in general. As Eric Morcambe might have said "I predicted all the right weather, but not *necessarily* for the right time or place". On the other hand, in early 2008 I *did* predict a record warm year for 2010. If you think you deserve credit for your forecast you should give me credit for mine 8) You made the elementary mistake of confusing tidal strength with gravitational force! That is a layman error. Other than that you have avoided any discussion on solar system physics by claiming that other people should study it for themselves, which is a somewhat transparent response. On the other hand, in early 2008 I *did* predict a record warm year for 2010. If you think you deserve credit for your forecast you should give me credit for mine 8) Close but no cigar. |
|
|
|
Post by steve on Oct 25, 2010 17:06:51 GMT
But you are missing the point that I am viewing my guess of 3 years of successively rising temperature through astromet's goggles.
(0.3C vs outturn of 0.312C; 0.4C vs outturn of 0.432C; 0.6C vs current 0.529C)
|
|
|
|
Post by steve on Oct 25, 2010 17:44:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Oct 25, 2010 21:18:51 GMT
astromet You are misremembering again. The exact quote that included the phrase "hotter than normal" is nothing to do with the whole of the NH 2010: This seems to be similar to way you misremembered the fact that you forecast drought for Indonesia in 2010 then used the floods in Indonesia to verify your generic forecast for more storms across the world in general. As Eric Morcambe might have said "I predicted all the right weather, but not *necessarily* for the right time or place". On the other hand, in early 2008 I *did* predict a record warm year for 2010. If you think you deserve credit for your forecast you should give me credit for mine 8) You made the elementary mistake of confusing tidal strength with gravitational force! That is a layman error. Other than that you have avoided any discussion on solar system physics by claiming that other people should study it for themselves, which is a somewhat transparent response. Well, I'm no layman Steve, but from the content of your own comments it is clear that you've got some basics to learn about solar system physics as they apply to the Earth's climate. Transparent questions from you deserve a transparent response. As for your 2008 forecast, I never saw it, so I don't know if you forecasted that 2010 would be warm or not. If you did, then good for you. If you really want to learn astronomical forecasting, then I've posted quite enough for you to get started in your own local region. Making outlandish and rude comments along with a rather strange ideology of AGW is not a prelude to learning more - but one of not learning at all. You cannot have your cake and eat it too Steve. I reminded you that most people use less than 10% of their own brainpower, and this serves as a reminder to you that you should never discount that which you have little knowledge - in this case, advanced climate and weather forecasting by astronomical means. Forecasting is not a pissing match, though that is what you seem to want to have with me. Number one, you are not my equal, nor my peer, nor an astrometeorologist, nor a forecaster. Until you are, you are not qualified in the least to critique astronomical forecasting until you learn and gain knowledge of the science itself, and practiced it; which you have shown clearly that you have not. Again, you cannot have your cake and eat it too. So, rather than pine on and on about anthropogenic global warming, and dissing astronomical forecasting, you are much better off dropping the snotty remarks so that you can actually learn about the subject you have chosen (unwisely) to debate with a professional. |
|
ZL4DH
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 128
|
Post by ZL4DH on Oct 26, 2010 4:35:32 GMT
Once we used to get observational forecast which were about 40% correct now we get model forecast and they even conflict with each other so now we end up with -well nothing really. www.metservice.com/national/warnings/severe-weather-outlookIssued: 1:59pm Tuesday 26 October 2010, Valid from Thursday 28 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010 By Thursday, a ridge of high pressure, that is currently prevailing over the country, is expected to slide to the east and allow a moist northwest flow to bring a rain band onto the South Island west coast. The signal for a heavy rainfall event in Fiordland and central and southern Westland has diminished somewhat, but there is still a low risk that on Thursday, rainfall amounts may warrant a warning. After Thursday, model solutions disagree somewhat. One model has a low cutting off just to the southeast of the South Island on Friday while other guidance has this happening in the Tasman Sea. The difference is a much reduced potential for heavy rain in central parts of the country if the mid Tasman scenario is correct. However, we have posted a low risk of heavy rainfall leading to warning for northwest northerlies and Buller for Friday. The situation is expected to clarify closer to the event. IN OTHER WORDS WHEN THE HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES WE WILL TELL YOU ITS RAINING |
|
|
|
Post by steve on Oct 26, 2010 8:03:40 GMT
...said the astrologer who confused gravitational force with tidal force. You still haven't said whether you know the difference.
|
|
|
|
Post by steve on Oct 26, 2010 8:08:52 GMT
Well I've booked a chap to fix a roof on Saturday, so the knowledge of the *possibility* of heavy rain would help to focus my priorities. (I know this particular forecast is for Tasmania, but since the solar system is so HUGE compared to the earth, if its influences are causing rain in Tasmania it's bound to have the same effect in Devon.)
|
|
