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Post by sigurdur on Feb 8, 2011 20:12:24 GMT
As a newcomer to this board, I looked here expecting a discussion on EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011? Sorry kernow. This thread is for astromet's particular forecast and things kind of went downhill when we tried to validate it. I'm sure you will get some interest if you start a new thread on ENSO. Done....  |
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 8, 2011 20:14:53 GMT
As a newcomer to this board, I looked here expecting a discussion on EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011? There is a discussion on ENSO, which was forecasted for this time Kernow. You will have to note who the few trolls are here, whose only habit is to center every discussion on this board with their ideology of man-made climate change. As for ENSO, here's a recent release by provided by Columbia University ~ "Recent extreme weather events as far as Australia and Africa are being fueled by a climate phenomenon known as La Nina -- or "the girl" in Spanish. La Nina has also played a minor role in the recent cold weather in the Northeast U.S.
The term La Niña refers to a period of cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs as part of natural climate variability.
This situation is roughly the opposite of what happens during El Niño (“the boy”) events, when surface waters in this region are warmer than normal.
Because the Pacific is the largest ocean on the planet, any significant changes in average conditions there can have consequences for temperature, rainfall and vegetation in distant places.
Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), part of Columbia’s Earth Institute, expect moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions to continue in the tropical Pacific, potentially causing additional shifts in rainfall patterns across many parts of the world in months to come.
These shifts, combined with socioeconomic conditions and other factors, are making some countries more vulnerable.
However, La Niña and El Niño conditions actually allow for more accurate seasonal forecasts and help better predict extreme drought or rainfall in some areas.
That’s because they affect global atmospheric circulation patterns in known ways, and scientists can use this knowledge to help societies prepare better, issue early warnings and reduce any negative impacts associated with them.
"Based on current observations and on predictions from models, we see at least a 90 percent chance that La Niña conditions will continue through March," said IRI's chief forecaster, Tony Barnston.
Climate scientists have found La Niña's fingerprints on a number of extreme weather events such as the devastating flood that occurred in Pakistan in 2010, as well as flooding in West Africa, South Africa and most recently in Queensland, Australia, where an area equal to the combined size of France and Germany was underwater.
La Niña is also to blame for Cyclone Yasi, one of the strongest to hit Australia, which came ashore on Feb. 2.
Cyclone Yasi is the second most damaging Australian cyclone on record after Cyclone Tracy, which struck in 1974.
In addition to extreme rainfall, La Niña can lead to drought conditions. Currently in East Africa, it has caused drier-than-usual weather, sparking food-security concerns in areas lacking irrigation, including parts of Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Parts of South America, Asia and the southern U.S. may also see lower rainfall for the first quarter of 2011.
Since 1950, the world has experienced six major La Niña events, wreaking havoc in countries around the world. In 2000, for example, floods associated with La Niña affected 400,000 people in southern Africa, caused at least 96 deaths and left 32,000 homeless.
La Niña conditions typically persist for 9 to 12 months, peaking sometime during the end of the year.
But 2010 was a lively year for climate scientists: For the first four months of this year, El Niño conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific, but that quickly changed, and by June, a La Niña pattern had emerged.
"Last year's transition from El Niño to La Niña was about the most sudden we've ever had," Barnston said.
"When we had rapid flips like this in the past, we sometimes ended up having a two-year La Niña, such as right after the El Niño episodes of 1972 to 1973 and 1997 to 1998."
Barnston cautions that the likelihood of this happening with the current La Niña is unknown. "Even if we do have a second year of La Niña developing in northern summer 2011, we expect at least a brief return to neutral conditions from May to July of 2011." |
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Post by steve on Feb 9, 2011 11:34:50 GMT
astromet
I imagine people were saying that to the Wright brothers. It is sad that your perspective is limited.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 9, 2011 20:47:00 GMT
astromet I imagine people were saying that to the Wright brothers. It is sad that your perspective is limited. Please. Stop insulting the intelligence of others Steve. And quit with the drama queen shticks. We are men here. Be one. |
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Post by steve on Feb 9, 2011 20:54:23 GMT
astromet I imagine people were saying that to the Wright brothers. It is sad that your perspective is limited. Please. Stop insulting the intelligence of others Steve. And quit with the drama queen shticks. We are men here. Be one. The macho posturing is a little disappointing too. |
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2011 1:23:15 GMT
Please. Stop insulting the intelligence of others Steve. And quit with the drama queen shticks. We are men here. Be one. The macho posturing is a little disappointing too. Get back to climate science, ENSO and quit with the immaturity Steve. This is a pro board, not a chatline for whiners. |
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 14, 2011 1:57:04 GMT
We see this in the current satellite photos of the northern hemisphere as of February 2011 ~ See, "World of two halves! Map shows most of Northern Hemisphere is covered in snow and ice" -> climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7215 |
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Post by glc on Feb 14, 2011 8:52:27 GMT
See, "World of two halves! Map shows most of Northern Hemisphere is covered in snow and ice" -> climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7215 The statement is simply untrue. Most of the NH is not covered in snow and ice. It's not even close.
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Post by woodstove on Feb 14, 2011 20:13:18 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 14, 2011 20:47:59 GMT
I am all for a weakening La Nina!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by glc on Feb 14, 2011 21:18:49 GMT
Woodstove I'm not sure why you've provided an ENSO report in response to my comment about NH snow/ice cover. You're normally quite logical (if not necessarily right  ) so I'm a bit intrigued. |
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Post by woodstove on Feb 14, 2011 21:54:23 GMT
Woodstove I'm not sure why you've provided an ENSO report in response to my comment about NH snow/ice cover. You're normally quite logical (if not necessarily right ) so I'm a bit intrigued. To quote an old friend of mine, "Why is it always about you?" The surprise is that anyone would be surprised when ENSO would be brought up on an ENSO thread. As for snow cover this winter, it appears not to have been permanent. On the other hand, the weak winters forecasted by AGWers not very long ago don't seem to be materializing... |
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Post by glc on Feb 14, 2011 22:46:09 GMT
To quote an old friend of mine, "Why is it always about you?"
It isn't - or wouldn't be about me if it weren't for the fact that you quoted my comment.
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Post by woodstove on Feb 15, 2011 9:43:05 GMT
To quote an old friend of mine, "Why is it always about you?"It isn't - or wouldn't be about me if it weren't for the fact that you quoted my comment. Point taken. A little run down at my house; second daughter born 3 weeks ago. |
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Post by glc on Feb 15, 2011 12:57:07 GMT
To quote an old friend of mine, "Why is it always about you?"It isn't - or wouldn't be about me if it weren't for the fact that you quoted my comment. Point taken. A little run down at my house; second daughter born 3 weeks ago. Congratulations. You are allowed to be as illogical as you wish for the next 18 months. |
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) so I'm a bit intrigued.