|
|
Post by throttleup on Apr 20, 2011 18:12:16 GMT
What's it's been like in your part of the country, Steve? I'm finding it a bit warm to sit outside for too long  Perhaps the sea breezes mean it's a bit cooler in Devon. Lucky fellers that you are where it has been warm. Frm the looks of things, you will only warm more as the three main areas of world production stay a bit on the cold side. Look on the bright side, Sig... you can take the summer off! |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Apr 20, 2011 21:29:24 GMT
The effect on people in the northern hemisphere, as well as the southern hemisphere for their previous winter has been pronounced. Astromet perhaps you should stick to forecasting for the US. We have been basking in wall to wall sunshine with temperatures in the mid-70s Fahrenheit. We are well on course for the warmest April on record. February and March were well above normal as well. See www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.htmlSigurdur I have to agree with your forcast Astromet. All indications at this time are that you are correct.Contrary to popular belief (amongst americans), The US is not the world - nor is it even the Northern Hemisphere (a mistake often made by our resident astrometeor...gobbldygook...ologist). Some of us in the NH are enjoying an unusually warm spell of weather www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1378352/Easter-weekend-weather-Temperature-hits-25C-4-day-mini-heatwave-begins.html Americans don't believe that they are the world glc. Also, once again you continue to talk weather where you are located when others have been talking climate - especially the climate of the recent winter the hemisphere just emerged out from. And, the last time I checked, if the U.S. is not in the northern hemisphere as you say (and there are two hemispheres) then glc are you saying that the U.S. is in the southern hemisphere? Talk about 'gobbledygook.' Facts: all continents north of the equator are in the Northern Hemisphere glc, and this includes North America and Europe. Only South America and Africa have portions of their continents in both hemispheres. As for the weather in the UK, which is not the whole world - After a difficult and colder than normal winter, spring began on a dry note for many parts of England and Wales. The wettest weather has been in northwest England and western Scotland with temperatures generally above average. March was close to a degree above average while April started on the mild side across most of the UK. This is on pace for a warmer-than-average April with rainfall expected to vary widely across the UK with regional variations with pressure systems higher than average in the south, but lower than average for Scotland. Dry and sunny weather is set to continue until the end of April, as high pressure begins to build over the UK from the south-east with maximum daytime temperatures to 24°C can be expected across the southern counties of England, southwest and Wales. Going into Easter I expect a warm and dry southeasterly flow to develop into humid conditions in the south of the UK, associated with isolated systems with a southerly flow. This is normal spring weather that will also bring thunderstorms in from France and Netherlands through the English channel. The precipitation will lead to flash-flooding in some spots, so it may be worth keeping a close eye on the weather warnings during the last two weeks of April. However, the medium range view for the UK and Ireland is for hot and dry weather that is expected to prevail. In March, snow affected parts of Scotland as a strong continental airflow undercut milder Atlantic air from the east. Temperatures were around the freezing mark at night and up to chilly 5C during the day in March, in between moist polar maritime air ushering in from the southwest and dry south easterlies. Further south in England and Wales a light to fresh southeasterly airstream brought a significant chill to decent daytime temperatures between 8 to 13C. The climate changed in late March to drier and sunnier conditions but with winds that veered to a cooler southeasterly flow bringing frosts which lasted to the end of March and into the first week of April. Again, normal weather for most of the UK at this time of year. There is nothing exceptional about it warming at this time and has nothing to do with 'man-made global warming' as the Earth's climate is always variable. Nonetheless, the climate year of 2010-11 was a year of extreme weather events: very heavy rains, biblical flooding, major snowstorms, drought, heat waves and severe cold unfolding across the U.S. and the world. This La Niña has been one of the oddest in recorded history along with the fact that variations of La Niña's strength have had a diverse menu of extreme weather for various regions. There is only a short data set of La Niñas and El Niños in conventional climatology/meteorology for study so they are not at a stance where they can correlate weather events with ENSO or predict when they will happen. The April 7th NOAA Observation on La Niña - La Niña weakened for the third consecutive month, as reflected by increasing surface and subsurface ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
All four Niño indices ranged between –0.3oC and –0.8oC at the end of March 2011.
Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies became weakly positive in response to the continued eastward progression of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave, which has begun to shoal in the eastern Pacific.
However, the basin wide extent of negative SST anomalies remained considerable throughout the month.
Also, La Niña impacts on the atmospheric circulation remained strong over the tropical and subtropical Pacific.
Convection remained enhanced over much of Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific.
Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds have persisted in this region. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a weakening La Niña, but with ongoing global impacts.
Nearly all of the ENSO models predict La Niña to continue weakening in the coming months, and the majority of models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral by May-June-July 2011 (three month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC.
While there is confidence in ENSO-neutral conditions by June 2011, the forecasts for the late summer and beyond remain highly uncertain.
At this time, all of the multi-model forecasts suggest ENSO-neutral conditions will persist from June through the rest of the year.
However, the spread of individual model forecasts and overall model skill at these lead times leaves the door open for either El Niño or La Niña conditions by the end of 2011.
La Niña will continue to have global impacts even as the episode weakens through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
Expected La Niña impacts during April-June 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia.
Potential impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance for below-average precipitation across much of the South, while above-average precipitation is favored for the northern Plains.
An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted across the northern tier of the country (excluding New England).
A higher possibility of above-average temperatures is favored for much of the southern half of the contiguous U.S. |
|
|
|
Post by glc on Apr 20, 2011 22:31:39 GMT
Also, once again you continue to talk weather where you are located when others have been talking climate - especially the climate of the recent winter the hemisphere just emerged out from.
No - we've all be talking about weather at least as far as the recent winter/spring is concerned.
Going into Easter I expect a warm and dry southeasterly flow to develop into humid conditions in the south of the UK, associated with isolated systems with a southerly flow.
Thank you for that Astromet but you can get that forecast from pretty much anywhere including the UK met office who also expect the UK to be warm and dry.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Apr 21, 2011 3:58:59 GMT
Also, once again you continue to talk weather where you are located when others have been talking climate - especially the climate of the recent winter the hemisphere just emerged out from.No - we've all be talking about weather at least as far as the recent winter/spring is concerned. Going into Easter I expect a warm and dry southeasterly flow to develop into humid conditions in the south of the UK, associated with isolated systems with a southerly flow.Thank you for that Astromet but you can get that forecast from pretty much anywhere including the UK met office who also expect the UK to be warm and dry. I'm sure you may be able to glc, but the UK is not the world, remember that. |
|
|
|
Post by richard on Apr 21, 2011 19:43:06 GMT
Facts: all continents north of the equator are in the Northern Hemisphere glc, and this includes North America and Europe. Only South America and Africa have portions of their continents in both hemispheres. What a moron. Australia and Antarctica are both in the southern hemisphere. And now you change your "forecast" from cooler to warmer than average. |
|
|
|
Post by glc on Apr 21, 2011 23:27:22 GMT
And, the last time I checked, if the U.S. is not in the northern hemisphere as you say (and there are two hemispheres) then glc are you saying that the U.S. is in the southern hemisphere?
No I'm not. I'm saying that the US is only a small part of the NH. You, however, constantly refer to the weather situation in the US as though it is representative of the entire NH. It may have been a cold spring in many parts of the US but it has certainly not been a cold spring across the entire NH.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Apr 22, 2011 1:46:11 GMT
And, the last time I checked, if the U.S. is not in the northern hemisphere as you say (and there are two hemispheres) then glc are you saying that the U.S. is in the southern hemisphere?No I'm not. I'm saying that the US is only a small part of the NH. You, however, constantly refer to the weather situation in the US as though it is representative of the entire NH. It may have been a cold spring in many parts of the US but it has certainly not been a cold spring across the entire NH. Oh, well you didn't phrase it that way glc. Also, stop being a snit. I forecast for many regions around the world and name them, this includes the U.S., which, despite whatever your 'problem' is - also happens to be a part of the world - in the northern hemisphere. And, it has been a cold winter and spring across the northern hemisphere. It was also a cold start to spring in the southern hemisphere last year, that is if you can think back that "far." This is one of the problems we continue to have with you: in wanting to see 'warm' everywhere you look. You continue to prove my point how ideology is total bullshit - especially when it comes to the real world of climate and weather. When are you going to give all that up? The fact is that over this winter and into early spring the Northern Hemisphere's winter snow extent was the second highest on record, at 52,166,840 km2. Now, you may want to nickel-and-dime that, but it doesn't serve to cloud anything which happens to be the case with you whenever it comes to the climate and weather - in the real world. So when are you going to quit with that crap? It's too tired and too old glc and frankly I'm not happy about having to respond to you splitting hairs and having a fit everywhere you turn. Why don't you give it a rest? |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Apr 22, 2011 3:05:17 GMT
And, the last time I checked, if the U.S. is not in the northern hemisphere as you say (and there are two hemispheres) then glc are you saying that the U.S. is in the southern hemisphere?No I'm not. I'm saying that the US is only a small part of the NH. You, however, constantly refer to the weather situation in the US as though it is representative of the entire NH. It may have been a cold spring in many parts of the US but it has certainly not been a cold spring across the entire NH. Oh, well you didn't phrase it that way glc. Also, stop being a snit. I forecast for many regions around the world and name them, this includes the U.S., which, despite whatever your 'problem' is - also happens to be a part of the world - in the northern hemisphere. And, it has been a cold winter and spring across the northern hemisphere. It was also a cold start to spring in the southern hemisphere last year, that is if you can think back that "far." This is one of the problems we continue to have with you: in wanting to see 'warm' everywhere you look. You continue to prove my point how ideology is total bullshit - especially when it comes to the real world of climate and weather. When are you going to give all that up? The fact is that over this winter and into early spring the Northern Hemisphere's winter snow extent was the second highest on record, at 52,166,840 km2. Now, you may want to nickel-and-dime that, but it doesn't serve to cloud anything which happens to be the case with you whenever it comes to the climate and weather - in the real world. So when are you going to quit with that crap? It's too tired and too old glc and frankly I'm not happy about having to respond to you splitting hairs and having a fit everywhere you turn. Why don't you give it a rest? Astromet. Oh long winded one, this link shows global temparature anomolies for March 2011 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201103.gifThis is recent global weather. Astomet, are you trying to talk us all to death? Is that your strategy? Weather varies from time to time, day to day and year to year, as we experience it. Climate change happens over longer periods of time. Ever hear the expression, 'can't see the forest for the trees'? |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Apr 22, 2011 3:08:27 GMT
should Astromet set up a twitter account?
|
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 22, 2011 3:49:15 GMT
thermostat:
The link to temps you provided has some serious errors in it. I know it is the 1979-2000 base period, but even with that taken into account it is in error. At least for the USA where I live.
Being they can't even get the host country temps right, I am not sure they can get any temperature correct. Wouldn't put a lot of stock in that link anymore, sorry to say.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Apr 22, 2011 23:47:22 GMT
Oh, well you didn't phrase it that way glc. Also, stop being a snit. I forecast for many regions around the world and name them, this includes the U.S., which, despite whatever your 'problem' is - also happens to be a part of the world - in the northern hemisphere. And, it has been a cold winter and spring across the northern hemisphere. It was also a cold start to spring in the southern hemisphere last year, that is if you can think back that "far." This is one of the problems we continue to have with you: in wanting to see 'warm' everywhere you look. You continue to prove my point how ideology is total bullshit - especially when it comes to the real world of climate and weather. When are you going to give all that up? The fact is that over this winter and into early spring the Northern Hemisphere's winter snow extent was the second highest on record, at 52,166,840 km2. Now, you may want to nickel-and-dime that, but it doesn't serve to cloud anything which happens to be the case with you whenever it comes to the climate and weather - in the real world. So when are you going to quit with that crap? It's too tired and too old glc and frankly I'm not happy about having to respond to you splitting hairs and having a fit everywhere you turn. Why don't you give it a rest? Astromet. Oh long winded one, this link shows global temparature anomolies for March 2011 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201103.gifThis is recent global weather. Astomet, are you trying to talk us all to death? Is that your strategy? Weather varies from time to time, day to day and year to year, as we experience it. Climate change happens over longer periods of time. Ever hear the expression, 'can't see the forest for the trees'? Thermostat, I don't have a 'twitter' mentality as you do since I can see both the 'forest' and the 'trees,' unlike some who play with dubious climate graphics pretending to know what they are talking about. You have a lot to learn about the world's climate system and its weather but you won't learn anything from ideology and ignorance. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Apr 24, 2011 2:23:36 GMT
Astromet. Oh long winded one, this link shows global temparature anomolies for March 2011 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201103.gifThis is recent global weather. Astomet, are you trying to talk us all to death? Is that your strategy? Weather varies from time to time, day to day and year to year, as we experience it. Climate change happens over longer periods of time. Ever hear the expression, 'can't see the forest for the trees'? Thermostat, I don't have a 'twitter' mentality as you do since I can see both the 'forest' and the 'trees,' unlike some who play with dubious climate graphics pretending to know what they are talking about. You have a lot to learn about the world's climate system and its weather but you won't learn anything from ideology and ignorance. Astromet, Fair enough. But this is what I challenge. Can you provide a concise, articulate statement of the point you want to make? or not? Think about it. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Apr 24, 2011 2:30:00 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Apr 24, 2011 2:44:58 GMT
Astromet. Oh long winded one, this link shows global temparature anomolies for March 2011 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201103.gifThis is recent global weather. Astomet, are you trying to talk us all to death? Is that your strategy? Weather varies from time to time, day to day and year to year, as we experience it. Climate change happens over longer periods of time. Ever hear the expression, 'can't see the forest for the trees'? Thermostat, I don't have a 'twitter' mentality as you do since I can see both the 'forest' and the 'trees,' unlike some who play with dubious climate graphics pretending to know what they are talking about. You have a lot to learn about the world's climate system and its weather but you won't learn anything from ideology and ignorance. Astromet, You wrote, "You have a lot to learn about the world's climate system and its weather but you won't learn anything from ideology and ignorance." Absolutely! We agree! I think science is most useful here. |
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Apr 24, 2011 4:56:52 GMT
Thermostat, I don't have a 'twitter' mentality as you do since I can see both the 'forest' and the 'trees,' unlike some who play with dubious climate graphics pretending to know what they are talking about. You have a lot to learn about the world's climate system and its weather but you won't learn anything from ideology and ignorance. Astromet, You wrote, "You have a lot to learn about the world's climate system and its weather but you won't learn anything from ideology and ignorance." Absolutely! We agree! I think science is most useful here. Then why pretend climate scientists know enough when they clearly do not. |
|
Perhaps the sea breezes mean it's a bit cooler in Devon.
