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Post by hairball on Jan 17, 2010 17:55:48 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 17, 2010 21:01:04 GMT
Yes, I know. You hear these kinds of things from people sometimes who just do not have a clue about climate, health, and of course the impact on agriculture. Everyone has to eat, and people sometimes forget that the climate decides everything about crops. Right now, I see the southern jet bringing back a very wet and windy second half of January for the western U.S., including the northwest - heavy rains are on the way, and heavy snows for the Sierra mountains. See - www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gifIn my ENSO forecast, I continue to warn about heavy floods as a result of the Mississippi River overflowing this late winter, and into spring. This ENSO is just starting to power up now, and it will dominate the entire year. Interesting counterpoint as Joe Bastardi from Accuweather is saying the opposite. " the peak of this nino seems to a) have been reached earlier than normal and b) did not reach the peak of 06-07, when it Jim Hansen who went nuts on hottest ever."www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.aspLooks like a validation test coming up  I'm for validation - and that is always delivered by Mother Nature. If you look to the American Pacific coast, you should see what I've been calling for over a year now in my ENSO 2010 forecast. I expect to nearly 20 inches of rains over the Pacific coast in the next 10-12 days, along with heavy snowfalls at higher elevations, especially in the Sierra mountains, and up along the Pacific coastline. One storm after another will blast into the Pacific coastline. This is ENSO kicking itself off for N. America, and soon, over half the world. I continue to state that 2010 will be a record year. |
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Post by waxxstatic on Jan 21, 2010 19:31:58 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2010 6:06:36 GMT
I agree with Bob. In my ENSO forecast for 2010, we are seeing classic signs of a buildup that will dominate much of this year. California is already experiencing what I forecasted last year, and I expect that the next several weeks will continue to see convections of storms since that is what the Pacific does in such oscillations. The big story is going to be the trades winds with jet stream action. This week, California could experience some of the most powerful winds seen for ages - wind gusts over 230 mph. There is major news in the coming weeks in the Pacific U.S. west coast, and, the interior states as well. The low altitude of the jet over southern California is low, about 8,000 feet, not the usual 30-60,000 ft., and it has those eastern Pacific warm El Nino waters boiling with energy and feeding convection after convection and storm after storm towards the far west and southwest. With the coming lunar perigee at full moon I expect major weather events to continue to dominate California and the Southwestern states the week of January 24 and into February. The Sierra mountains will get slammed with record amounts of snowfall and high winds causing blizzard conditions. The warmer regions will receive even more precipitation of rain - a whole season's worth, plus another, next week with the frequencies of these ENSO-fueled storms. |
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 24, 2010 7:14:46 GMT
[ California is already experiencing what I forecasted last year, Oh so we can blame you!  |
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Post by woodstove on Jan 24, 2010 14:37:35 GMT
The big story is going to be the trades winds with jet stream action. This week, California could experience some of the most powerful winds seen for ages - wind gusts over 230 mph. At which locations in California are you forecasting "wind gusts over 230 mph", and by that do you mean straight-line winds? Presumably you mean mountaintops? |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 24, 2010 15:13:57 GMT
The area of cold anomolys in the world's oceans has increased substantially from 1-4-10 to 1-21-10.
The hot pocket near NZ has decreased, and the El Nino is going downhill fast.
Contrary to Astromet, I think the El Nino has played out and will continue to declime. I have this gut feeling that we are in a quit rapid cool off. I hope I am wrong.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2010 16:33:09 GMT
The big story is going to be the trades winds with jet stream action. This week, California could experience some of the most powerful winds seen for ages - wind gusts over 230 mph. At which locations in California are you forecasting "wind gusts over 230 mph", and by that do you mean straight-line winds? Presumably you mean mountaintops? Yes, in the Sierra mountains. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2010 16:34:42 GMT
The area of cold anomolys in the world's oceans has increased substantially from 1-4-10 to 1-21-10. The hot pocket near NZ has decreased, and the El Nino is going downhill fast. Contrary to Astromet, I think the El Nino has played out and will continue to declime. I have this gut feeling that we are in a quit rapid cool off. I hope I am wrong. Well, according to my estimates, this ENSO has just begun, and is nowhere near to being in decline. The "hot pockets" that you are talking of near NZ is simply varying and is not a cool off at all. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 24, 2010 16:51:49 GMT
I understand your estimates, and in all things there are error bars. Even if you drop an exact same rock off the Empire state building, it will not land in exactly the same spot each time because of air currents etc. I respect your abilities to predict. Call me an old guy, and this isn't scientific, but observations of my area are drawing my gut to more cold rather than warmth. This reminds me of the 60's and early 70's, how the sky looks, etc. There is something there, I just don't know what it is. So much for Sig's scientific reply....  |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2010 17:07:54 GMT
I understand your estimates, and in all things there are error bars. Even if you drop an exact same rock off the Empire state building, it will not land in exactly the same spot each time because of air currents etc. I respect your abilities to predict. Call me an old guy, and this isn't scientific, but observations of my area are drawing my gut to more cold rather than warmth. This reminds me of the 60's and early 70's, how the sky looks, etc. There is something there, I just don't know what it is. So much for Sig's scientific reply.... Well, you may not know, but that doesn't mean that I do not. Call me a long-range forecaster, but I don't rely on my "guts," dropping rocks from tall buildings, or "feeling" to forecast. I use astronomical science which works well thank you very much. There is much too much opinion in forecasting which is why it is done so poorly and why populations are left unprepared by most MET organizations depending on ideology and not science to forecast. Forecasting is not about being "perfect" which is something non-forecasters never seem to get, almost as if they see the climate in black and white, on, or off. The Earth climate and weather never operated like that, and never will. That "more" that you are talking about is the climate - it's that simple, and the climate as it has been for 30 years is shifting with more anomalous cooling, which is going to be the general global climate into the 2020s and 2030s. |
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 25, 2010 4:22:44 GMT
The area of cold anomolys in the world's oceans has increased substantially from 1-4-10 to 1-21-10. The hot pocket near NZ has decreased, and the El Nino is going downhill fast. Contrary to Astromet, I think the El Nino has played out and will continue to declime. I have this gut feeling that we are in a quit rapid cool off. I hope I am wrong. This loop appears to show the El Nino retreating  Here is the latest anomaly chart from Unysis shows much the same pattern and the hot area between Chile and New Zealand appears to be waning too.  If the forecast of cold weather spreading East from central Europe to Benelux and UK is true, then the North Sea won't keep the Netherlands warm this time. (See an interesting discussion on ocean currents here: www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1408&tstamp=&page=5 ) |
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Post by spaceman on Jan 25, 2010 5:06:19 GMT
Everything starts with observation. Sigurdur, what you maybe seeing is something that you remember. When the air gets very cold aloft, the water vapour freezes into a different form of ice. Sometimes we see light in these ice crystals that form small rainbows called sundogs. Different forms of cloud formations and the way frontal boundaries move that you remember, usher in the same type of weather. For me, when I see sundogs, I think colder weather, ususally snow, ice, and very cold temps. When I see rings around the moon, at night, it has been my experience that we have rain 3 days later. I've kept a log of it. I thought it was interesting that spin ice in which they discovered magentic monopoles. Of course I thought of the ice in sundogs.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 26, 2010 7:49:12 GMT
The area of cold anomolys in the world's oceans has increased substantially from 1-4-10 to 1-21-10. The hot pocket near NZ has decreased, and the El Nino is going downhill fast. Contrary to Astromet, I think the El Nino has played out and will continue to declime. I have this gut feeling that we are in a quit rapid cool off. I hope I am wrong. This loop appears to show the El Nino retreating Here is the latest anomaly chart from Unysis shows much the same pattern and the hot area between Chile and New Zealand appears to be waning too. If the forecast of cold weather spreading East from central Europe to Benelux and UK is true, then the North Sea won't keep the Netherlands warm this time. (See an interesting discussion on ocean currents here: www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1408&tstamp=&page=5 ) I can understand how you would see this Nautonnier, however, in my estimation, this ENSO is just starting. After El Nino, there's La Nina by February 2011. However, I am sure you are seeing the same things I am, and the cooler anomalies are a normal part of El Nino. The cause, of course, are celestial, and there are important dates coming up. Jupiter will emerge from the far side of the Sun at the end of February, and we will see increased solar activity kicking off as cycle #24 is just warming up now. By spring 2010, ENSO kicks off a new round just as the Earth reaches equinox. The last fun and games the northern hemisphere had was near Earth perihelion to the Sun by early January. We saw the seismic and climate effects as well with events in the equatorial Pacific. From my astronomical estimation of global climate state - 2010 is the year of El Nino, to be followed by La Nina in 2011. This year is a tough weather year for both hemispheres, especially in the Americas, both north and south. |
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 26, 2010 8:57:43 GMT
You seem very confident about this 2010 El Nino Astromet
I think Joe Bastardi is suggesting it is coming to an end
If it continues into 2010 with renewed vigour it would equal the 1998 super El Nino
If I have understood your comments is that what you are suggesting might happen?
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