jan
New Member
Posts: 2
|
Post by jan on Dec 1, 2009 8:46:32 GMT
15 more days to beat 2008 spotless days count. 8 spotless days in row today ... Can 2009 still beat 2008? Math is saying yes, recent activities in November are saying no ... This December might be very interesting.
|
|
N9AAT
Level 3 Rank
DON'T PANIC
Posts: 153
|
Post by N9AAT on Dec 1, 2009 20:51:30 GMT
Layman question here ;D OK. I know you guys mostly deal with day-to-day issues, but does anyone feel like we are in a repeat of the general low activity that seems to me to always occur in the early part of a century??? I'm not talking raw numbers here, just the trends between say 1700 to 1720 (I guess the end of the Maunder), then 1800 to 1830, then 1890 to 1920 or so. Anyone have a handle on spotless records then? What I'm wondering is if we can expect more intense and shorter cycles, and shorter spotless runs, nearer the middle of the century? IS there a century-level cycle to be detected?
|
|
|
Post by colinaldridge on Dec 1, 2009 22:28:19 GMT
No sunspots on the farside, the index down to 72 and 9 days on the run begins to move the odds back in favour of beating 265. The result will be about the same as 2008 either way unless we get no spots at all in December. Anybody want to bet on that... not me for sure ;D
|
|
|
Post by boxman on Dec 2, 2009 1:23:22 GMT
No sunspots on the farside, the index down to 72 and 9 days on the run begins to move the odds back in favour of beating 265. The result will be about the same as 2008 either way unless we get no spots at all in December. Anybody want to bet on that... not me for sure ;D The flux is 69-70 according to this: lynx.drao.nrc.ca/pub/solar/FLUX_DATA/fluxtablerolling.textThe one on front page is afaik not corrected for variable distance from the sun.
|
|
|
Post by twawki on Dec 7, 2009 4:04:51 GMT
9 more spotless days to go. 24 days left in the month
so 2008 and 2009 is similar in its spotless run
the real interesting question is what will 2010 pan out to be. Whilst some say SS24 is ramping up - will it continue?
|
|
shm6666
Level 2 Rank
The Sun :-)
Posts: 98
|
Post by shm6666 on Dec 7, 2009 22:53:34 GMT
Well for me 2009 is already more spotless then 2008. What I did was taking the daily sunspot data and imported it to my SQL server express and run this query
" SELECT datum as StartDag, dateadd(day,364,datum) as very *friendly* personDag, ( SELECT count(SSN) FROM tbl_SSN WHERE SSN = 0 and datum BETWEEN TSSN.datum and dateadd(day,364,TSSN.datum) ) as AntalDagar FROM tbl_SSN TSSN WHERE datum BETWEEN '2008-06-01' and '2009-12-31' Order BY AntalDagar DESC, datum "
(yes the variables are in Swedish. I made this calculation for a Swedish forum first.)
What it came up with was that it was three days in June that had 293 days. It was the 20, 21 and 22. There are some dates in October that have 287 days. In November the highest count was 284.
/Sven
|
|
|
Post by andrewuwe on Dec 8, 2009 9:51:49 GMT
I'm not even close to understanding your sql but June 20: wouldn't that and the twelve months before it be mostly in 2008? Making 2008 the weakest?
About December 20 coincidentally...
|
|
shm6666
Level 2 Rank
The Sun :-)
Posts: 98
|
Post by shm6666 on Dec 8, 2009 10:59:07 GMT
Well 293 days was from 2008-06-21 to 2009-06-20, 2008-06-22 to 2009-06-21 and 2008-06-23 to 2009-06-22. Those three 365 days periods had 293 spotless days in them. I have not checked how many of those days where in 2008 and how many of them were in 2009.
But since the period ends in 2009 I personally call 2009 more spotless, but that is just my point of view. The interesting thing is when I run this for 1913 / 1914 I get that the most number of spotless days was 314. Very close to the official 311 for 1913. I´m at work right now so I don´t have access to my SQL to get the exact dates. One thing is for certain that this period from 2007 to 2009 has been low on sunspots, but 1912 to 1914 was lower.
/Sven
|
|
|
Post by andrewuwe on Dec 8, 2009 11:23:57 GMT
I see, so the most spotless 365 day period, although centered on december 2008, could be mostly at one end or the other. So maybe you need the average day of the spotless day from the start of the 365 day period.
|
|
|
Post by msphar on Jan 2, 2010 15:04:33 GMT
Spotless Day Page has been updated. 771 total spotless days through end of 2009. This transition now ranks high in the list but not yet threatening the top three longest transitions.
|
|
|
Post by meemoeuk on Jan 15, 2010 13:38:36 GMT
266 day for 2008, 262 days for 2009, 311 days for 1913. So that's that. The spot spree suddenly started shortly after I posted this topic. Murphys law for ya. You've all got me to thank for starting the main SC24. I didn't think the sun had such an awkward sense of humour. thanks to Leif for his patience. I took an apposing stance to his views, but somehow the sun did what Leif said it would. The man's got that thing on a leash I tell you. The penny dropped last September when I read Leif saying there were 2 definitions of solar minimum, minimum spot count , and 24vs23 spot dominance. That destroyed my principle argument based on 'minimum 10 to 20 months after 1st new cycle spot' + " long die off of previous cycle usually means long wait for minimum after reverse pole spot " -> most spotless days in 2009.
|
|
solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
|
Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 11, 2010 0:16:04 GMT
I think spotless days in 2010 will be dramatically lower than 2009. Less than 50 spotless days for 2010
Jan 2010: 2 spotless days Feb 2010: None so far and it's halfway through the month. Also some of the highest sunspot counts(50+) in 3 or 4 years.
There may be perhaps more spotless days this year but it seems that it will be far less than 2009
|
|
|
Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 11, 2010 0:47:46 GMT
I think spotless days in 2010 will be dramatically lower than 2009. Less than 50 spotless days for 2010 Jan 2010: 2 spotless days Stastically that is incorrect. There were two points during January where the Sunspot count dropped to zero but there where no points where the spot count dropped to zero and held it for an entire day. The last time that happened was December 8th 2009. So there were zero spotless days in January.
|
|
solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
|
Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 12, 2010 23:51:52 GMT
Ok then, where can I find better data for sunspots as the official SSN was 0 for those 2 days on the charts HERE, on solarcycle24.com, and on spaceweather.com
|
|
|
Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 13, 2010 2:30:17 GMT
Ok then, where can I find better data for sunspots www.solen.info/solar/The top chart as the official SSN was 0 for those 2 days on the charts HERE, on solarcycle24.com, and on spaceweather.com Official ? spaceweather.com is a spare time project of a NASA employee. The point at which the SSN count reaches zero is Day 0
|
|