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Post by meemoeuk on Sept 16, 2009 10:21:24 GMT
Number of spotless days up till Sept 1st 2009 for 2009 : 196
Percentage of 2009 days so far without spots : 80.66%
Average spotted days per month : 5.8 approx
160 year record : 1913
Number of spotless days in 1913 : 311
Percentage : 85.21%
Average spotted days per month : 4.4 approx
Remaining number of spotless days this year needed for new high record : 116
Number of days left this year since Sept 1st inclusive : 122
Spoted days days allowed before record cannot be broken : 6
Pecentage of spotless days from now on for remainder of year required : 95.08%
Average spoted days per month allowed before record cannot be broken : 1.5
It looks like an unlikely stretch, but in may be that solar minimum is in the next month or so, and if so, the average spotless day percentage could go up enough.
Anyway, it's now close to certain 2009 will have the 2nd highest spotless day count in 160 years. It will knock 1901 off 2nd place. 1901 : approx 283 spotless days, 77.5% approx of total days in 1901 were spotless days. 2009 is on course for 294 days.
I'd say the odds on a new spotless record are about 1 in 6. Someone roll a dice!
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Post by nobrainer on Sept 16, 2009 10:38:00 GMT
Number of spotless days up till Sept 1st 2009 for 2009 : 196 Percentage of 2009 days so far without spots : 80.66% Average per month : 5.8 - 5.9 160 year record : 1913 Number of spotless days in 1913 : 311 Percentage : 85.21% Average per month : 5 - 5.1 Remaining number of spotless days this year needed for new high record : 116 Number of days left this year since Sept 1st inclusive : 122 Spoted days days allowed before record cannot be broken : 6 Pecentage of spotless days from now on for remainder of year required : 95.08% Average spoted days per month allowed before record cannot be broken : 1.5 It looks like an unlikely stretch, but in may be that solar minimum is in the next month or so, and if so, the average spotless day percentage could go up enough. Anyway, it's now close to certain 2009 will have the 2nd highest spotless day count in 160 years. It will knock 1901 off 2nd place. 1901 : approx 283 spotless days, 77.5% approx of total days in 1901 were spotless days. 2009 is on course for 294 days. I'd say the odds on a new spotless record are about 1 in 6. Someone roll a dice! You can run into problems using yearly counts of spotless days...it depends where the year falls during a minimum. Also the counting method around 1900 is different from today. An example, using the Layman's count from June 2008 - June 2009 we get 349 days spotless. But having said that I agree we are heading into something more like 200 years ago. |
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Sept 16, 2009 10:41:08 GMT
I say we end up in the number two spot this year, but we'll break the record next year.
Hey, if you're going to make a prediction, make one that's really out there. If you're wrong, people will forget soon enough. If you're right (or even close), you can be an 'expert' for years.
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Post by radiant on Sept 16, 2009 13:29:14 GMT
Number of spotless days up till Sept 1st 2009 for 2009 : 196 Percentage of 2009 days so far without spots : 80.66% Average spotted days per month : 5.8 approx 160 year record : 1913 Number of spotless days in 1913 : 311 Percentage : 85.21% Average spotted days per month : 4.4 approx Remaining number of spotless days this year needed for new high record : 116 Number of days left this year since Sept 1st inclusive : 122 Spoted days days allowed before record cannot be broken : 6 Pecentage of spotless days from now on for remainder of year required : 95.08% Average spoted days per month allowed before record cannot be broken : 1.5 It looks like an unlikely stretch, but in may be that solar minimum is in the next month or so, and if so, the average spotless day percentage could go up enough. Anyway, it's now close to certain 2009 will have the 2nd highest spotless day count in 160 years. It will knock 1901 off 2nd place. 1901 : approx 283 spotless days, 77.5% approx of total days in 1901 were spotless days. 2009 is on course for 294 days. I'd say the odds on a new spotless record are about 1 in 6. Someone roll a dice! How do we compare now if we look at longest 365 periods that are not restricted to jan to december Isnt that more important than the year number which can divide a couple of good years? |
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Post by rmarriott on Sept 16, 2009 13:38:57 GMT
Number of spotless days up till Sept 1st 2009 for 2009 : 196 Percentage of 2009 days so far without spots : 80.66% Average spotted days per month : 5.8 approx 160 year record : 1913 Number of spotless days in 1913 : 311 Percentage : 85.21% Average spotted days per month : 4.4 approx Remaining number of spotless days this year needed for new high record : 116 Number of days left this year since Sept 1st inclusive : 122 Spoted days days allowed before record cannot be broken : 6 Pecentage of spotless days from now on for remainder of year required : 95.08% Average spoted days per month allowed before record cannot be broken : 1.5 It looks like an unlikely stretch, but in may be that solar minimum is in the next month or so, and if so, the average spotless day percentage could go up enough. Anyway, it's now close to certain 2009 will have the 2nd highest spotless day count in 160 years. It will knock 1901 off 2nd place. 1901 : approx 283 spotless days, 77.5% approx of total days in 1901 were spotless days. 2009 is on course for 294 days. I'd say the odds on a new spotless record are about 1 in 6. Someone roll a dice! I would venture to suggest that if we were counting spots today using the same technology available in 1913, we would be pretty fire certain to beat the 1913 record. We are not comparing like with like, especially SIDC whose count forms the basis of Janssen's Spotless Days Page which is almost useless now as a consequence! |
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Post by rbateman on Sept 16, 2009 16:25:50 GMT
It's easy for 2009/2010 to take aim at 1913/1914:
The past stands still.
It's much easier to topple when undercut.
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Post by meemoeuk on Sept 22, 2009 18:36:10 GMT
This thread can take credit for the recent sunspots. the meemoe effect is more powerful than the watts effect. Looks like 2009 won't take the spotless days record.
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Post by rbateman on Sept 22, 2009 20:22:55 GMT
That would be a "Don't say that! You'll make it happen" theory, which has been around some 3 decades.
The Sun does what it's going to do, whether it operates on it's own or under the influence of the Galaxy.
I am sure there were spots that were not counted in 1913 that are counted now. Nobody back then would think twice about bean-counting sunspecks into mountains, especially when the focus in those days was the area measurements.
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Post by byz on Nov 15, 2009 8:09:07 GMT
Well as the "more spotless days 2008 or 2009" seems to have been shut down, I'll post this here  Current spotless days 2009 = 242, 2008 = 265 So we only need 24 spotless days this year it's going to be a close run thing  As for the 1913 record no way it can only get to 288 at best. Sunspot 1029 has blown itself out so it could be a fun run in. Looks like 2010 could still have a number of spotless days too ;D |
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Post by savethesharks on Nov 17, 2009 6:38:34 GMT
Rob Says: "I am sure there were spots that were not counted in 1913 that are counted now. Nobody back then would think twice about bean-counting sunspecks into mountains, especially when the focus in those days was the area measurements."
That is why your Layman's Count is so important for the record, guys.
Keep up the work, please....and thanks for your efforts.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
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Post by lsvalgaard on Nov 17, 2009 12:19:41 GMT
Number of spotless days up till Sept 1st 2009 for 2009 : 196 Percentage of 2009 days so far without spots : 80.66% Average spotted days per month : 5.8 approx 160 year record : 1913 Number of spotless days in 1913 : 311 Percentage : 85.21% Average spotted days per month : 4.4 approx Remaining number of spotless days this year needed for new high record : 116 Number of days left this year since Sept 1st inclusive : 122 Spoted days days allowed before record cannot be broken : 6 Pecentage of spotless days from now on for remainder of year required : 95.08% Average spoted days per month allowed before record cannot be broken : 1.5 It looks like an unlikely stretch, but in may be that solar minimum is in the next month or so, and if so, the average spotless day percentage could go up enough. Anyway, it's now close to certain 2009 will have the 2nd highest spotless day count in 160 years. It will knock 1901 off 2nd place. 1901 : approx 283 spotless days, 77.5% approx of total days in 1901 were spotless days. 2009 is on course for 294 days. I'd say the odds on a new spotless record are about 1 in 6. Someone roll a dice! I would venture to suggest that if we were counting spots today using the same technology available in 1913, we would be pretty fire certain to beat the 1913 record. We are not comparing like with like, especially SIDC whose count forms the basis of Janssen's Spotless Days Page which is almost useless now as a consequence! This is what was available in 1912:  Still in use today: www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/intro.html |
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Post by jcarels on Nov 17, 2009 15:49:16 GMT
And they had a sunspot group yesterday  ... Soho wasn't up there in those days, so what does this tell about layman's count....  |
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lku
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 62
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Post by lku on Nov 29, 2009 14:30:15 GMT
If I count correctly, as of Dec 1 (assuming no spots in the next 24 hours), we will have 251 spotless days this year. Leaving only 14 spotless days in December to equal the 1913 total of 265.
15 spotless days will beat it.
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Post by skypilot on Nov 29, 2009 15:15:56 GMT
I didn't show the graph but according to the "Spotless days website" the record is 311 in 1913. We also have 3 years in the top 25 years since 1849. website: users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.htmlTop 25 of years with most number of spotless days since 1849 This graph shows the number of spotless days per year since 1849. There are 106 years with at least 1 spotless day, of which 24 years with 150 or more spotless days. 1913 is recordholder with a staggering 311 days! Based on preliminary data, 2008 ranks fourth in years with a spotless sun (265 days; 19 July dropped off the list compared to previous update). Only 1878, 1901 and 1913 have even more such days. With 705 days in total and already 196 spotless days in 2009, the current solar cycle transit will have at least 3 years in this top 25. Compared to the solar cycle transits around the late 19th - early 20th century, the low 12th and moderate 15th solar cycle were preceded by 4 years with 140 or more spotless days. Despite the minimum, it seems that many more spotless days are on their way. |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 29, 2009 15:58:11 GMT
I didn't show the graph but according to the "Spotless days website" the record is 311 in 1913. We also have 3 years in the top 25 years since 1849. website: users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.htmlTop 25 of years with most number of spotless days since 1849 This graph shows the number of spotless days per year since 1849. There are 106 years with at least 1 spotless day, of which 24 years with 150 or more spotless days. 1913 is recordholder with a staggering 311 days! Based on preliminary data, 2008 ranks fourth in years with a spotless sun (265 days; 19 July dropped off the list compared to previous update). Only 1878, 1901 and 1913 have even more such days. With 705 days in total and already 196 spotless days in 2009, the current solar cycle transit will have at least 3 years in this top 25. Compared to the solar cycle transits around the late 19th - early 20th century, the low 12th and moderate 15th solar cycle were preceded by 4 years with 140 or more spotless days. Despite the minimum, it seems that many more spotless days are on their way. The statistical minimum for this Cycle occurred in December 2008. The weakest month occurred in August 2009 whenevreyday was Spotless. That makes for 31 Spotless Days in August. September had 18 Spotless Days. October had 18 Spotless Days. November will have 14 Spotless Days. Notice a trend ? Thus far in those named months the Sunspot Count has not exceeded 5. Most cycles usually start off at a slow rate of increase and accelerate in their ascent. Since Cycle 24 began producing spots in earnest in September there has been almost no activity in the Southern Hemisphere. It is a certainty that activity will begin there very soon. When that occurs the Spotless Day Count will drop dramatically immediately. From the outset of that datum Spotless Days will number a handful (Less than 7) and be down to zero per month in less than 6 months. That is a worst case scenario. At any time the monthly Sunspot Number could jump to 20 and end the Spotless Day phenomenon immediately. |
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