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Post by scpg02 on Feb 26, 2010 2:07:21 GMT
Croat scientist warns ice age is overdue, could start in five yearsArticle link
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Post by douglavers on Feb 26, 2010 3:01:16 GMT
He is a bit off on power suppliers.
If fast breeder reactors are used, the U238 can be used efficiently, which will provide more than 10 times the energy per kilo of mined uranium. Then there is thorium - more than 4 times as abundant as uranium in the earth's crust. At the moment it is an unwanted by-product of sand mining in WA. It is fissile, and I think the Indians are already building thorium based reactors.
None of the above require new technology.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 26, 2010 5:20:11 GMT
He is a bit off on power suppliers. If fast breeder reactors are used, the U238 can be used efficiently, which will provide more than 10 times the energy per kilo of mined uranium. Then there is thorium - more than 4 times as abundant as uranium in the earth's crust. At the moment it is an unwanted by-product of sand mining in WA. It is fissile, and I think the Indians are already building thorium based reactors. None of the above require new technology. Where are you from DougL? |
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Post by douglavers on Feb 26, 2010 5:32:54 GMT
Hot, dry and sunny Melbourne
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Post by Ratty on Feb 26, 2010 11:33:50 GMT
Hot, dry and sunny Melbourne I saw the light and moved North to hot, humid Brisbane ... lotsa clouds lately. |
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Post by aj1983 on Feb 26, 2010 22:51:00 GMT
Is it possible for this guy team up with some of the global warming alarmists? Then they can combine their ice age scare with the runaway greenhouse scare and save the earth!  BTW nuclear fusion would end all energy problems, if we can get it to work. As a physicist, I hope it will. |
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Post by slh1234 on Feb 26, 2010 22:53:25 GMT
Is it possible for this guy team up with some of the global warming alarmists? Then they can combine their ice age scare with the runaway greenhouse scare and save the earth! Very clever ;D I agree they're from the same mold. |
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Post by hunter on Feb 27, 2010 16:03:06 GMT
You guys are clearly out of touch.
AGW is now sold as 'climate crisis'.
'Global warming' did not work.
'Climate change' is too stupid to say often with a straight face.
'Climate crisis' is perfect- any weather that makes one, living in a nice urban high tech environment uncomfortable is a 'crisis', that can only be solved by making Al Gore & pals even richer.
Do not bother people with stories about historic weather events. We are talking 'post normal' here, and history, evidence, and scientific method are road bumps.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 27, 2010 17:44:12 GMT
You guys are clearly out of touch. AGW is now sold as 'climate crisis'. 'Global warming' did not work. 'Climate change' is too stupid to say often with a straight face. 'Climate crisis' is perfect- any weather that makes one, living in a nice urban high tech environment uncomfortable is a 'crisis', that can only be solved by making Al Gore & pals even richer. Do not bother people with stories about historic weather events. We are talking 'post normal' here, and history, evidence, and scientific method are road bumps. Well - global warming, climate change, climate crisis are ALL synonyms for 'GIVE US YOUR MONEY!!' Whatever the discourse is the result at the end is the same. Look at all the discussions in Copenhagen- the most noisy descended into 'give us your money' from the African nations 'convinced' that they were going to starve unless their leaders' bank accounts were filled with largess  - (of course some would be salami sliced off into various other bank accounts e.g. Al Gore, Tony Blair on the way.) Cap and trade is not a way to stop emissions - it is a way to profit from them for people currently not in the energy supply business, indeed the current Waxman Markey bill is being relied on by the Administration to fill the financial black hole in the budget. The very last thing that the Administration wants is for the US population to reduce their carbon footprint. |
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Post by magellan on Feb 27, 2010 20:00:15 GMT
You guys are clearly out of touch. AGW is now sold as 'climate crisis'. 'Global warming' did not work. 'Climate change' is too stupid to say often with a straight face. 'Climate crisis' is perfect- any weather that makes one, living in a nice urban high tech environment uncomfortable is a 'crisis', that can only be solved by making Al Gore & pals even richer. Do not bother people with stories about historic weather events. We are talking 'post normal' here, and history, evidence, and scientific method are road bumps. Well - global warming, climate change, climate crisis are ALL synonyms for 'GIVE US YOUR MONEY!!' Whatever the discourse is the result at the end is the same. Look at all the discussions in Copenhagen- the most noisy descended into 'give us your money' from the African nations 'convinced' that they were going to starve unless their leaders' bank accounts were filled with largess - (of course some would be salami sliced off into various other bank accounts e.g. Al Gore, Tony Blair on the way.) Cap and trade is not a way to stop emissions - it is a way to profit from them for people currently not in the energy supply business, indeed the current Waxman Markey bill is being relied on by the Administration to fill the financial black hole in the budget. The very last thing that the Administration wants is for the US population to reduce their carbon footprint. You mean its like all those billions collected from cigarette taxes aren't actually placed in a lock box fund to pay for damages caused from smoking and to get people to quit? Boy was I fooled  |
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 27, 2010 20:13:46 GMT
Well - global warming, climate change, climate crisis are ALL synonyms for 'GIVE US YOUR MONEY!!' Whatever the discourse is the result at the end is the same. Look at all the discussions in Copenhagen- the most noisy descended into 'give us your money' from the African nations 'convinced' that they were going to starve unless their leaders' bank accounts were filled with largess - (of course some would be salami sliced off into various other bank accounts e.g. Al Gore, Tony Blair on the way.) Cap and trade is not a way to stop emissions - it is a way to profit from them for people currently not in the energy supply business, indeed the current Waxman Markey bill is being relied on by the Administration to fill the financial black hole in the budget. The very last thing that the Administration wants is for the US population to reduce their carbon footprint. You mean its like all those billions collected from cigarette taxes aren't actually placed in a lock box fund to pay for damages caused from smoking and to get people to quit? Boy was I fooled You certainly were.... watch this. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdpzIQZ8zJQ |
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Post by notconvinced on Feb 27, 2010 21:55:47 GMT
You mean its like all those billions collected from cigarette taxes aren't actually placed in a lock box fund to pay for damages caused from smoking and to get people to quit? Boy was I fooled You certainly were.... watch this. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdpzIQZ8zJQactually these actors show infinite competence and depth of analysis compared to the present clique running the US, UK and Europe. |
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Post by socold on Feb 27, 2010 23:28:31 GMT
Croat scientist warns ice age is overdue, could start in five years There's no news here. All he basically says is that we are in an interglacial period and after an interglacial comes a glacial period, oh and it's cold during a glacial period. I hope for his sake that this Croat Scientist did in fact say something new and profound, but it has been omitted by the journalist. |
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Post by sentient on Feb 28, 2010 22:53:53 GMT
Well, at the risk of repeating myself yet again, we are in an interglacial, the Holocene. It is now right at one half a precessional cycle old, roughly the same age as most interglacials. However, having said that does not give credit where credit is due as one can find many peer-reviewed papers on the esoterics of paleoclimatology research that give differeing ages of the various interglacials dating back to the Mid Pleistocene Transition. So being at half a precession age is only part of the issue.
Another part comes from being at an eccentricity minimum, which because of our nearly circular path around the sun for the next little while (estimates range from 20k to 50k from my reading, depending upon the range of the eccentricity minimum with respect to the orbit), then the other orbital factors of obliquity and precession are also muted.
The last time we were at an eccentricity minimum was 400k years ago, during MIS-11. It lasted about 30k years.
What can be said is that with the sun going all quite on us, at the end of half a precessional cycle at an eccentricity minimum with N65 insolation being very close to what it was at the close of the last interglacial, things could get interesting.
What we do know is that abrupt climate changes are just that. They happen swiftly and often frequently. Why? We still do not know.
Abrupt Climate Change - Inevitable Surprises" National Research Council, 2002:
“Briefly, the data indicate that cooling into the Younger Dryas occurred in a few prominent decade(s)-long steps, whereas warming at the end of it occurred primarily in one especially large step of about 8°C in about 10 years and was accompanied by a doubling of snow accumulation in 3 years; most of the accumulation-rate change occurred in 1 year. (This matches well the change in wind-driven upwelling in the Cariaco Basin, offshore Venezuela, which occurred in 10 years or less [Hughen et al., 1996].)
Ice core evidence also shows that wind-blown materials were more abundant in the atmosphere over Greenland by a factor of 3 (sea-salt, submicrometer dust) to 7 (dust measuring several micrometers) in the Younger Dryas atmosphere than after the event (Alley et al., 1995b; Mayewski et al., 1997). Taylor et al. (1997) found that most of the change in most indicators occurred in one step over about 5 years at the end of the Younger Dryas, although additional steps of similar length but much smaller magnitude preceded and followed the main step, spanning a total of about 50 years.
So these things need to all be kept in perspective. Re-ordering the paradigms suggests the following questions become key in terms of relevance to the debate:
1) Would the circumstance of northern hemisphere cooling over the past few years, and especially over the last winter, be unusual given the often antiphase relationship with southern hemisphere warming oscillations?
2) What factor prevented MIS-11 from tipping into an ice age during an eccentricity minima?
3) With a half precessional age, and the sun going all quite on us during an eccentricity minimum, would generating as much GHGs as possible prevent or ease us through a possible solar tipping point and extend this interglacial like MIS-11? And then there are the "B" and "C" class Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations.....
4) Given what you now know would limiting a potential blanketing effect appear to you to be a rational choice?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2010 23:47:27 GMT
The answer is an obvious no Sentient. There really are some of us who have no fear of an increase from present temps of another 2.0C.
Beats the thingyens out of a 2.0C drop wouldn't you say?
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- (of course some would be salami sliced off into various other bank accounts e.g. Al Gore, Tony Blair on the way.) 
