dc51
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 97
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Post by dc51 on Feb 28, 2010 18:05:17 GMT
So, after 2 of the coldest winters in decades and 3 rotten summers in a row here in the western fringes of Europe!! Please, Please!!! someone give me some good news about the coming summer forecast?? DC
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birder
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 223
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Post by birder on Feb 28, 2010 21:29:11 GMT
I haven't a clue what kind of summer we are going to have. I think it depends on how much the sun ramps up in the coming months and if the solar wind strengthens and hence where the jet stream ends up.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2010 21:31:55 GMT
Summer in the Northern Hemisphere/North American area is going to start out very cool. Might warm up by July, but I wouldn't count on it.
I predict a summer similiar to the mid 60's.
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Post by bprimerano on Feb 28, 2010 23:02:23 GMT
The models predict the warmest ever. ;D
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2010 23:42:52 GMT
The warmest ever?.....mmmmm..............who am I to argue with a model?
However, based on the sky etc, I still have to stick with cool.
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Post by curiousgeorge on Mar 1, 2010 0:11:51 GMT
The models predict the warmest ever. ;D Are you referring to the Sports Illustrated Models? They seem to agree that summer will be warm indeed. ;D
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 1, 2010 0:46:19 GMT
The models predict the warmest ever. ;D Are you referring to the Sports Illustrated Models? They seem to agree that summer will be warm indeed. ;D Ok.....those models would provide a HOT summer no matter the air temp....LOL.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 1, 2010 1:38:20 GMT
I think that what is needed is a testable definition. This winter has broken records in all sorts of ways for cold and snow - but we are told with some glee that this is the warmest period ever. I have some difficulty with the warmest period ever coinciding with record snow falls - but then I tend to have an illogical view that snow instead of rain means it may be colder What we need is a testable statement from the 'wamers' on this site. This is something that they really try to avoid. So come on warmers - give a testable statement on your forecast for Summer 2010 in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Post by scpg02 on Mar 1, 2010 2:38:30 GMT
The models predict the warmest ever. ;D Are you referring to the Sports Illustrated Models? They seem to agree that summer will be warm indeed. ;D
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Post by jurinko on Mar 1, 2010 7:23:28 GMT
Joe Bastardi predicts a warm one, especially the second part.
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Post by poitsplace on Mar 1, 2010 10:29:48 GMT
Well Joe predicts a warm one...but for the global temperatures to fall as the El Nino dies
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Post by aj1983 on Mar 1, 2010 17:29:51 GMT
This winter was -globally- one of the warmest winters since the satellite and surface record, if you believe one of them (actually if you believe one of them, you have to believe both, which I do, it being 2 independent ways of measuring the global temperature). However, the (Eastern) US, Europe and part of Northeast Asia were rather cold. (Well visible in the satellite temperature distributions, and even more obvious in the surface (HADCRUT3 temperatures). NH anomalies for January are very high in both surface and satellite measurements. So what we experience does not have anything to do with global temperatures (if that was true, people in the US would think that there is hardly any warming, while people in Europe would think that the runaway greenhouse effect has already started (well at least before 2008). We are seeing a return to somewhat more normal (cooler) temperatures, although usually only winters are cooler than normal. Spring here (western Europe) will probably be cool. The North Sea has cooled substantially, there is a lot of snow and ice in Scandinavia, and the pattern keeps on showing predominately north and northeasterly flow over this area.
I'll go with a slightly cooler and wet early summer for West/Central Europe (also because southern Europe (Spain) has been very wet, which enhances instability and formation of thunderstorm clusters bringing cooler air to our area if the wind turns towards the warmer south and southwest directions.) I have a "feeling" (based on hardly anything else than that) that this year might become the first year below average since 1996, which is -even with AGW- very much overdue. During the last few decades there is a tendency for cold winters and slightly cooler years to cluster around solar minima. I've read a few studies showing weak correlations between large variations in solar activity and regional climate signals. It seems that -in contrary to what you might expect- that short term solar variability might have stronger local than global effects. This would be consistent with the LIA being especially a regional NH phenomenon, and exceptionally high temperatures during the last few (solar active) decades in Europe. This is very much speculation though, as the link between solar activity for the same regions before 1960 shows more of an opposite effect (warmer during minima, cooler during maxima).
Local solar induced variation might be coming from pattern changes which can be generated by troposphere-stratosphere interactions. This is of ongoing research, and it is not sure if changes in the stratosphere are predominately caused by changes in tropospheric patterns (waves amplify, break and dissipate when travelling upward from the troposphere into the stratosphere), or that changes in the stratosphere are causing pattern changes in the Northern Hemispheric troposphere. It might be that they are connected ("coupled"). If so, one can imagine that changes in solar output (especially UV?) can generate changes in the stratosphere (e.g. polar vortex) and maybe also in the tropospheric patterns such as the AO index. The latter seems to have some positive correlation with solar activity. Based on this, it is to be expected that the first half of this year will be cool here as our weather is relatively strongly coupled to the NAO index during the winter half year.
Globally however, short term solar variability does not seem to have a large influence, and this will probably be a warm year (besides having maximum "solar cooling" from the recent minimum if you consider the relevant time scales for a possible short term solar variability link with global climate), though I don't think it is likely that the satellite measurements will show it to be warmer than 1998, when the El Nino was much stronger thoughout the year.
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Post by jurinko on Mar 1, 2010 18:10:58 GMT
This winter was -globally- one of the warmest winters since the satellite and surface record, if you believe one of them (actually if you believe one of them, you have to believe both, which I do, it being 2 independent ways of measuring the global temperature). NH anomalies for January are very high in both surface and satellite measurements. Satellite troposphere yes, surface not. HadCRUT global: HadCRUT NH extratropics: NH was as cold as during 80ties, 90ties and if I had extended the scale way back, it would be just in the middle of 40ties. NH is a good measure, since it is free of ENSO events. Why the surface record did not reflect the medium tropospheric record is a question, reading about combination of Nino and negative AO, who knows.
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Post by steve on Mar 1, 2010 18:30:22 GMT
I think that what is needed is a testable definition. This winter has broken records in all sorts of ways for cold and snow - but we are told with some glee that this is the warmest period ever. I have some difficulty with the warmest period ever coinciding with record snow falls - but then I tend to have an illogical view that snow instead of rain means it may be colder Strange. I always assume that the weather I am experiencing may not reflect other people's experience. My SE European colleage had a very disappoinging snow-free ski holiday in her home country. Given that two of the "warmers" on this site gave very good guesses for 2008 and 2009 global temperatures, that comment seems a bit unfair. I have already gone with the "models" in saying that 2010 will be very warm globally. What it means locally, I haven't a b'tard clue because I live in SW England. What's the point of a warm summer if it pi**es down throughout?
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Post by aj1983 on Mar 1, 2010 20:17:24 GMT
This winter was -globally- one of the warmest winters since the satellite and surface record, if you believe one of them (actually if you believe one of them, you have to believe both, which I do, it being 2 independent ways of measuring the global temperature). NH anomalies for January are very high in both surface and satellite measurements. Satellite troposphere yes, surface not. HadCRUT global: HadCRUT NH extratropics: NH was as cold as during 80ties, 90ties and if I had extended the scale way back, it would be just in the middle of 40ties. NH is a good measure, since it is free of ENSO events. Why the surface record did not reflect the medium tropospheric record is a question, reading about combination of Nino and negative AO, who knows. So the northern EXTRATROPICS are cold in the HADCRUT data. That does not come as a surprise (there is hardly any data near the poles, so that almost all the data is from the NH midlatitudes, in which temperatures correlate (after removing the AGW trend ) relatively well with the AO index. Surface stations globally for January are relatively high (0.71, 0.47) (but you don't trust them, right?), but the satellite measurements are record high (0.72). I have a feeling the satellite measurements will again be close to record high for February, but we'll see soon. Anyway, I'm pretty much done wiggle-watching now, if we are still seeing a flat or descending GLOBAL temperature trend in 10 years, please wake me up. (Locally, the trend can really go any way for one or two decades, even with strong AGW)
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