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Post by hairball on May 16, 2010 20:00:45 GMT
Please discuss/suggest/tell me if this is a terrible idea before voting, thanks. Meaning that if it's sensible it would be better to delete this and start again with more complete options; e.g. "increased CO2 will bring about a new golden age of tropical fruits blossoming on slag heaps and such".
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Post by jimcripwell on May 16, 2010 20:11:30 GMT
Roy Spencer claims that he has a way of analysing the hard data from the CERES satellite to prove that climate sensitivity is not positive, and may be negative. At least, that is what I think he has claimed. However, until his paper his published in GRL, he will not discuss the details of how he has done the analyisis. So we must wait until his paper is published. When this paper is published, this poll may be completley irrelevant. See www.drroyspencer.com, and scroll down to the brief note on his paper.
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Post by hairball on May 16, 2010 20:14:28 GMT
I've seen it Jim, this is completely unscientific hence the "think" in the thread title.
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Post by sigurdur on May 16, 2010 20:37:00 GMT
Hairball: I voted for 1-2C warming. My true thoughts are .3-.5C of warming from co2.
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Post by hairball on May 16, 2010 20:47:38 GMT
Hah, yup I guess you can't delete a poll once it's open and there's no way to guess what people would vote for. I really just wanted to check if most thought CO2 would have no effect at all (should have been one of the options). I don't think there's many who think that.
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Post by sigurdur on May 16, 2010 21:09:44 GMT
Good post tho hairball. When Dr. Spencers paper is published, this should get very interesting.
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Post by nautonnier on May 16, 2010 21:11:29 GMT
The average temperatures in the Holocene would appear to be above those we are witnessing today. There does not appear to be any persuasive evidence that CO2 will have any discernible effect. The complex feedback loops in the climate appear to act to maintain the status quo around a warm attractor which the Earth is slowly warming back to now - then something happens to flip the Earth to the ice age cold attractor.
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Post by poitsplace on May 16, 2010 21:53:21 GMT
I assume no detectable effects means under 1C of warming (which would be difficult to detect relative to earth's natural variability)
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Post by hairball on May 16, 2010 22:28:04 GMT
Honestly, thanks to our good friend GLC, I've gone from thinking CO2 doubling will have no effect to thinking it might change global temperature somewhere between 0 and +2C. Probably on the high side of that. I don't think any mortal or computer could narrow it down. I'd prefer it a bit warmer - we have plenty of arable land to feed 150% of the current human population (which UN population estimates suggest will halve by 2100). There's no need to worry in my estimation and climatologists should speak out against the scaremongering. *shrug*
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Post by sentient on May 16, 2010 23:18:29 GMT
Suggestion. Go to scholar.google.com/advanced_scholar_search?hl=en&as_sdt=2000Enter in "All the words" interglacial instability Click on 100 results per page. Then click Search Scholar. To the right of the resulting listings, you will sometimes see a listing for pdfs. All others are mostly citations or abstracts. The free pdfs are commonly full papers. gsapubs.org is an exception. However the 4th listing by Neumann and Hearty is an abstract worth reading. Towards the end of MIS-5e (the Eemian), there may have been a brief excursion to +6M AMSL. Since we have no precise date for the discovery of beans and/or salsa, it is of course possible that such a discovery in the late Eemian may have resulted in a "methane excursion" (silent but deadlies around the campfire) which then resulted in a six meter rise in sea level, after which this wretched practice was banned for an entire ice age until discovered once again in the Holocene. The early anthroemission hypothesis.... Enjoy your reading.
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Post by glc on May 16, 2010 23:30:17 GMT
Honestly, thanks to our good friend GLC, I've gone from thinking CO2 doubling will have no effect to thinking it might change global temperature somewhere between 0 and +2C. Probably on the high side of that.
Steady on - I reckon about 1.2 deg for CO2 doubling.
PS what part of Ireland are you from?
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Post by hairball on May 16, 2010 23:56:55 GMT
Honestly, thanks to our good friend GLC, I've gone from thinking CO2 doubling will have no effect to thinking it might change global temperature somewhere between 0 and +2C. Probably on the high side of that. Steady on - I reckon about 1.2 deg for CO2 doubling. PS what part of Ireland are you from? I'm from Dublin. The weatherpeople here kinda nod and shake their heads at the same time when they give forecasts, no offense to them it's quite changeable in this part of the world. Lately the like of the Tyndale Centre have said that CO2 will kill 90% of the human population. That can't be right and they shouldn't say that. Those who know better are obliged to speak out against that crap.
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Post by poitsplace on May 17, 2010 0:52:39 GMT
Steady on - I reckon about 1.2 deg for CO2 doubling. PS what part of Ireland are you from? That's at the high end of my guestimates. There's a clear change in behavior at the end of the interglacials showing the feedbacks getting weak...and indicating that ice albedo/desertification is the strongly positive feedback and that water vapor feedback is weak to negative. The only significant positive feedback I can see available (within the temperature ranges CO2 could do squat about) would be a boon to mankind...albedo feedback from the greening of africa and australia. But hey, that's just my opinion.
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Post by hunter on May 17, 2010 1:48:33 GMT
I voted for 1-2 per doubling. Will CO2 even double from its present level?
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Post by sigurdur on May 17, 2010 1:50:22 GMT
I voted for 1-2 per doubling. Will CO2 even double from its present level? It would appear that unless nature does something drastic, (major volcanic eruption)......that co2 will not double. There is not enough carbon to do so in fossil fuels.
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