20 years of cooling

[icefisher]

Perhaps Socold will draw us a line of best fit through this chart.




Looks like the Nino3.4 region of the ocean has been in a cooling mode for about 20 years.

[jurinko]

If I am Socold, I would say " so even Nino events are colder in general and the temperature goes up".

If I am me, I reply "so where is the heat?" Cleaning the global record from the oceans with their Nino ups and downs, ground stations show inevitable switch to cooling phase since 2005, following the oceans cooling since 2002.



What is also interesting, is the repeating pattern of neutral, medium, weak and medium El Nino, La Nina, big El Nino and deep La Nina. Compare the 1990-1998 and 2000-2010 periods.

[socold]

Yes ENSO activity has trended downward in recent decades. This is also reflected in PDO for example, the slope is negative over even the past 30 years:
www.woodfortrees.org/plot/jisao-pdo/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1980/trend

If these indices reflect causes of climate change (rather than just reflections of it) then this suggests that natural variation has countered some of the recent warming rather than contributing to it. If PDO is a cycle, what happens when PDO starts trending upward? Wouldn't that increase the rate of warming per decade?

Then again I am unconvinced these ocean "cycles" have much effect on global temperature over decades. Certainly over centuries they have flat trends.

[socold]

May 19, 2010 20:34:29 GMT jurinko said:

If I am Socold, I would say " so even Nino events are colder in general and the temperature goes up".

If I am me, I reply "so where is the heat?" Cleaning the global record from the oceans with their Nino ups and downs, ground stations show inevitable switch to cooling phase since 2005, following the oceans cooling since 2002.

It doesn't look like there is much cooling there. I think what is there is a result of El Nino in 2005 and La Nina in 2008, and the effect of descent into solar minimum over that period.

[jurinko]

If 3-7 deg C warming projections till 2100 were real, we would have already seen 0.7-1.5 deg C warming since 1990. We see almost none, and the trend goes downward.

PDO vs US temperatures


AMO vs Island temperatures

[socold]

Even the top emission scenario only just goes over 3C by 2100 and none of them suggest expected warming of 0.7C-1.5C since 1990.



Edit: I see the ranges on the right hand side do go almost up to 7C. I think those sort of values are little unlikely. I don't know what the A1F1 scenario is, I thought A2 was the worst - that's unrealistic enough:

A2 storyline and scenario family: a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/sres/

[poitsplace]

I find it amusingly ironic that we're basically following the worst case scenario in terms of CO2 output...but failing to warm at all.

[hunter]

May 20, 2010 0:03:23 GMT poitsplace said:

I find it amusingly ironic that we're basically following the worst case scenario in terms of CO2 output...but failing to warm at all.

It takes a great deal of mental effort for AGW true believers to sincerely ignore this point.

[scpg02]

May 20, 2010 3:41:31 GMT hunter said:

May 20, 2010 0:03:23 GMT poitsplace said:

I find it amusingly ironic that we're basically following the worst case scenario in terms of CO2 output...but failing to warm at all.

It takes a great deal of mental effort for AGW true believers to sincerely ignore this point.

No mental effort required, just a lot of Kool-Aide.

[hairball]

Surely CO2 emissions have exceeded the "worst case" scenario modelled for AR4?

[jurinko]

May 19, 2010 22:40:46 GMT socold said:

Notice the black line 1900-2000, the model run for 20th century. How come it does not comply with reality at all? It just follows the CO2 curve! Compare it with Reykjavik or US record with its cyclical pattern. As we say here, where the comrades from DDR made a mistake?