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Post by socold on Dec 21, 2010 1:05:49 GMT
It's warmer than el ninos in the 80s It was starting from the base of the 'record warm year' of the century - so one would think it would be. Given how hot the atmosphere is - the sea is surprisingly cool. Don't you feel a scintilla of curiosity? not really, it's a la nina, im sure the atmosphere will follow down too.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 22, 2010 1:56:59 GMT
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Dec 22, 2010 1:58:04 GMT
It certainly dropped a large portion of Ocean Heat content in April very quickly which was a bit of a surprise. Since its slowly progressing and the cold is now becoming dominant. there is still a lag but we will start to see the effects from now on. Next year looks very cool, and if we double dip La Nina could take 2 years to recover.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 22, 2010 5:02:14 GMT
It certainly dropped a large portion of Ocean Heat content in April very quickly which was a bit of a surprise. Since its slowly progressing and the cold is now becoming dominant. there is still a lag but we will start to see the effects from now on. Next year looks very cool, and if we double dip La Nina could take 2 years to recover. That's about what I've seen, however we may pick up a bit more ocean temperature in 2012 enough to make some difference by the time this La Nina has run its course. The next year certainly looks cooler-than-normal to me. I see cold temps in April, May, June, and July 2011 right out of this winter season. By mid-August we should see a rise to more seasonal warm temperatures, but at least half of next summer looks cooler to me.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 7, 2011 16:40:22 GMT
All I can say is that if you believe this forcast.....buy wheat futures, corn futures and soybean futures. Well, many did not, though the forecast of global flooding came true under ENSO. Food prices are already rising, and as this winter turns into spring we will see ever more damage from La Nina's phase.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 8, 2011 20:27:25 GMT
It certainly dropped a large portion of Ocean Heat content in April very quickly which was a bit of a surprise. Since its slowly progressing and the cold is now becoming dominant. there is still a lag but we will start to see the effects from now on. Next year looks very cool, and if we double dip La Nina could take 2 years to recover. Some climate centers are saying this ant42, but from what I can see it is more of the same La Nina, just a very powerful one, more than a double dip. The latest news on La Nina as of Feb. 8: La Nina To Bring Second Round Of 2011 Winter Weather"Blizzard 2011 dumped more than a foot of snow overnight in many areas across the nation in the first week of February.
Now in the second week of February, another winter weather storm system is moving in and will affect two-thirds of the United States, bringing arctic wind, extreme cold, heavy snow and rain for different parts of the United States.
La Nina (not to be confused with El Nino currents that bring warmer than normal temperatures) has being targeted as the cause for the winter's bad weather. La Nina brings colder-than-normal temperatures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in conjunction with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, has issued a severe weather alert for Tuesday - a tri-front storm system will move into many areas of the United States and Canada.
The first front of the storm is an area of low pressure off from the Gulf of Mexico that will move northeast and parallel to the Atlantic seaboard further inland. Along this front light to moderate rain will follow through Tuesday.
The second front of the winter storm combines with an upper level disturbance to bring rain and snow that moves northeast and stretches from eastern Arkansas to the lower Great Lakes.
Following upper level disturbance storms, are areas of lake effect snow.
The third front will move southward along the Rockies to the border of Mexico.
This front will push eastward to the middle Mississippi region bringing snow accumulations of up to eight inches and cold temperatures 30 to 40 degrees below average for the area and season.
Snow accumulation is predicted as far south as north central Texas, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and northern Mississippi."
My forecast on La Nina calls for it to strengthen through February, March and April, into May and June, with weakening beginning in the month of July and August. This means a cooler-than-normal spring 2011 ahead into the summer months before we see La Nina values head back to the neutral range.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Feb 9, 2011 20:04:12 GMT
I'm not an Astro-Meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV. But it looks like the current La Niña will moderate quickly right up to -0.5 and perhaps even cross the threshold before restrengthening in August or September. So I am officially predicting a double dip La Niña. (Or back to back if you prefer...) That and 4 bucks will get you a crappy coffee at the nearest Starbucks. :-)
Ok, Ok, by quickly I mean to say that SSTs in Nino area's 3 and 4 will rise fairly smoothly and peak around late July at say -0.5 +- .15. I expect I will be eating humble pie long before then...
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2011 21:01:32 GMT
I'm not an Astro-Meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV. But it looks like the current La Niña will moderate quickly right up to -0.5 and perhaps even cross the threshold before restrengthening in August or September. So I am officially predicting a double dip La Niña. (Or back to back if you prefer...) That and 4 bucks will get you a crappy coffee at the nearest Starbucks. :-) Ok, Ok, by quickly I mean to say that SSTs in Nino area's 3 and 4 will rise fairly smoothly and peak around late July at say -0.5 +- .15. I expect I will be eating humble pie long before then... I haven't seen that in my astronomic cycle runs. La Nina strengthens through to April/May but we will see signals that indicate that values will trend gradually back to neutral, and this comes in August according to my calculations. We've got a way to go before then, but the coming spring and first half of summer should be cooler than average because of La Nina.
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