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Post by nautonnier on Aug 6, 2010 20:00:50 GMT
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Post by scpg02 on Aug 7, 2010 2:33:23 GMT
And the snow in Washington state means no rain in SoCal That doesn't fit with what I know about La Nina. Seems like the last one did nothing but funnel rain into SoCal on in through Texas. I could be wrong, I don't follow these things. |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 7, 2010 5:56:56 GMT
As you can see the only time it rains in Los Angeles is during an El Nino.  LA gets to talk regularly about droughts but they haven't had a negative PDO yet. Its going to get interesting that they built some millions of houses since the last one. |
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Post by scpg02 on Aug 7, 2010 5:59:06 GMT
Well maybe I got my boys and girls mixed up. I knew it rained during one of them.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 7, 2010 6:09:44 GMT
Well maybe I got my boys and girls mixed up. I knew it rained during one of them. Pretty easy to do when they have pink for the boys and blue for the girls.  |
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Post by scpg02 on Aug 7, 2010 6:31:46 GMT
Well maybe I got my boys and girls mixed up. I knew it rained during one of them. Pretty easy to do when they have pink for the boys and blue for the girls. Hey, equal protection man. Or so the judge says. |
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Post by walterdnes on Aug 8, 2010 6:36:21 GMT
The ESRL site uses its own index, not Nino34. The monthly discussion www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/mei.html#discussion ends up with... After peaking five months ago at +1.5, it has dropped just about as fast as it can, and currently matches 1970 the best of the 'analog' cases shown here (for the calendar year). Given the continued drop in the MEI into moderately strong territory, at least weak La Niña conditions are now virtually guaranteed into 2011. In fact, the odds are much better than 50/50 that it will remain at least moderately strong through the next six months. Based on four out of six strong La Niña cases that continued right into the following winter, one might argue similar odds for at least weak La Niña conditions into the 2011-12 winter, but this La Niña has not quite reached that strength (yet) The models are having a very tough time predicting Nino34. One need only look at the following figure from the July 8th ENSO diagnostic discussion at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jul2010/ensodisc.html  The PDF (Probability Density Function) corrected forecasts keep getting lower every month. They gave up entirely, and didn't even bother with a similar figure in the August 5th discussion. The latest PDF-corrected Nino34 forecast is at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif That one looks like a blown forecast too. It's calling for August to be not quite -1.0. Guess what, the latest weekly (centred on Wednesday July 28th) is already -1.3. The uncorrected forecast at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif looks to have come closer, but even it may be underestimating the cooling. If so, world agriculture will be in deep trouble. But it is consistent with ESRL's point that 4 of 6 analogous La Ninas point to the possibility of this one lasting into 2012. No that's not a typo; I said two thousand and TWELVE. |
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 8, 2010 8:53:41 GMT
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Post by atra on Aug 9, 2010 7:03:39 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Aug 9, 2010 11:05:24 GMT
Wow!!
That would make the past El Nino the biggest El Nino ever (calm down alarmists! we are only talking in the 60 year record! LOL!) in the same sense that Moana Kea is the world's tallest mountain.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 9, 2010 15:00:15 GMT
" JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114, D14104, 8 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008JD011637
J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter
Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958−2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Niño−Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation." See also www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2566235/postsThis is what Joe Bastardi has been saying - if the global 'temperatures' follow the ENSO downward it could become cold quite rapidly. This is a validatable effect now - with only a few months to go. Faites vos jeux mes amis!  |
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Post by scpg02 on Aug 9, 2010 15:08:32 GMT
you couldn't come up with a better link than FreeRepublic?
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Post by icefisher on Aug 9, 2010 18:14:27 GMT
Some interesting outputs here. Note the major oceans of the world (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian) moving to cooler over 6 tri-monthly patterns centered on Oct to Mar 11. Maybe they ought to call Socold and Steve and see if they have the right models.  |
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Post by atra on Aug 10, 2010 0:23:25 GMT
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Post by glc on Aug 10, 2010 7:55:50 GMT
Interesting that while posters on this blog are generally dismissive of models/forecasts we've just had a whole page of model forecasts posted.
Are some models/forecasts more reliable than others? Or is it just that there are some we happen to like more?
Re: J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter
There is a correlation between SOI and average global temp but you wouldn't know it from the graph.
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