jinki
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 123
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Post by jinki on Aug 19, 2010 14:33:07 GMT
The PDO looking interesting. July figures just in -1.05According to Don Easterbrook the PDO entered it's "negative phase" in 1999 Yep, you can see that from the graph. It's a 30 year phase, which will gain extra strength from a weakening Sun.
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Post by hairball on Aug 20, 2010 1:21:19 GMT
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Post by erlhapp on Aug 22, 2010 5:48:17 GMT
Looks like there are a few posters here taking an intelligent interest in El Nino prediction and hopefully the dynamics that drive it. I want to say straight off that the analogue approach has severe limitations. It assumes that the Earths climate is a closed system and that what is about to happen has already happened sometime in the past. Well, its not a closed system and is the base state is forever changing. And here is the proof of that statement: climatechange1.wordpress.com/The climate system has turned from El Nino bias in its base state to a La Nina Nina bias. So, if you look up www.eldersweather.com.au/climimage.jsp?i=soiyou will see that the new base state is already well established with La Nina dominant since 2007. And, to answer the question posed by the thread, I would expect a to see a cold winter develop in the Northern Hemisphere, and you should see that manifest within a couple of months. Figure 12 in my paper shows which way temperatures are headed. The Southern Hemisphere usually shows the way.
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jinki
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 123
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Post by jinki on Aug 24, 2010 14:05:25 GMT
As Erl states, the base has changed. This La Nina has the potential to be the largest in modern times. The record has just updated.
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Post by walterdnes on Aug 25, 2010 5:34:33 GMT
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Post by glc on Aug 26, 2010 8:52:31 GMT
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Post by magellan on Aug 26, 2010 16:35:05 GMT
What difference does it make, he's comparing 2007/2008 to 2010/2011; apples to apples. As NOAA is notorious for either ambiguous or warm biased predictions, one wonders just how far temperatures will crash in the next 6-9 months, but if the climate models are predicting cold, assume it will be colder. Remember 2007? Say bye bye to your "trend is positive since 1998"
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Post by glc on Aug 26, 2010 17:06:23 GMT
What difference does it make, he's comparing 2007/2008 to 2010/2011; apples to apples
It could make a big difference. I'm not sure he is comparing "apples to apples" which is why I asked the question.
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Post by magellan on Aug 26, 2010 17:09:04 GMT
What difference does it make, he's comparing 2007/2008 to 2010/2011; apples to applesIt could make a big difference. I'm not sure he is comparing "apples to apples" which is why I asked the question. No it doesn't make a difference. Both charts are from NOAA. You aren't sure NOAA used the same baseline for the two comparisons? Please glc, don't humor us.
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Post by robertski on Aug 26, 2010 17:18:10 GMT
What difference does it make, he's comparing 2007/2008 to 2010/2011; apples to apples. As NOAA is notorious for either ambiguous or warm biased predictions, one wonders just how far temperatures will crash in the next 6-9 months, but if the climate models are predicting cold, assume it will be colder. Remember 2007? Say bye bye to your "trend is positive since 1998" Lol, what positive trend? Oh you mean this one issued by the Met Office..0.07c since 98. Hardly a warming trend. ;D
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Post by glc on Aug 26, 2010 17:38:40 GMT
What difference does it make, he's comparing 2007/2008 to 2010/2011; apples to applesIt could make a big difference. I'm not sure he is comparing "apples to apples" which is why I asked the question. No it doesn't make a difference. Both charts are from NOAA. You aren't sure NOAA used the same baseline for the two comparisons? Please glc, don't humor us. Read what it says in the top RH corner of each chart.
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Post by glc on Aug 26, 2010 17:44:31 GMT
Lol, what positive trend? Oh you mean this one issued by the Met Office..0.07c since 98. Hardly a warming trend.
Not a cooling trend though, is it? 18 months ago a lot of posters were making a big deal about the "cooling trend since 1998". It's now positive (for UAH, Hadcrut, GISS & RSS) which shows that you shouldn't read anything into short term trends.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 26, 2010 22:41:05 GMT
Lol, what positive trend? Oh you mean this one issued by the Met Office..0.07c since 98. Hardly a warming trend. Not a cooling trend though, is it? 18 months ago a lot of posters were making a big deal about the "cooling trend since 1998". It's now positive (for UAH, Hadcrut, GISS & RSS) which shows that you shouldn't read anything into short term trends. So are you complaining about having nothing to complain about or what?
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Post by atra on Aug 27, 2010 0:35:58 GMT
I'm really hoping we get to see a super La Nina. The 98 El Nino peaked at around +2.5. Looking at the data back to 1950 it looks like even the strongest La Ninas peaked at around -2. I realize the models all vary wildly, but the hint of a La Nina of such magnitude just gets me excited. Edit: for reference, 97 peaked at +2.5, 73 at -2.1, 08 at -1.4 and 09 at +1.8
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Aug 27, 2010 1:19:05 GMT
A "super la-nina" has never really happened before. I would say the events would be as severe as the ones a super El-Nino would be.
A list of calamities that may occur in the event of a -2.5 or stronger La-Nina
-Tipping point in California drought. hundreds of thousands of homes burned in fires - Tornado outbreaks often in the deep south all winter - Severe drought returns to the Canadian prairies and US plains with a vengeance in Summer 2011. - Combined with the current -NAO Much of UK can Expect a winter comparable to a Canadian winter - Moscow gets roasted again in summer 2011 - Trans-canada highway in BC is closed off an on for the entire winter and spring due to record snow pack and rock slides - Severe windstorms hammer the pacific northwest and destroy vast rain forests - Minnesota gets the coldest winter ever recorded
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