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Post by hairball on Aug 10, 2010 9:22:51 GMT
GLC, 6 months ago those models said we'd still be in the middle of a strong El Nino right now. That was a prediction. This isn't a prediction: Thing about these elite climatologists and their supercomputers is that they haven't got a clue.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 10, 2010 11:29:55 GMT
Interesting that while posters on this blog are generally dismissive of models/forecasts we've just had a whole page of model forecasts posted. Are some models/forecasts more reliable than others? Or is it just that there are some we happen to like more? Re: J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, R. M. Carter There is a correlation between SOI and average global temp but you wouldn't know it from the graph. Most of the graphical posts show actual observation then continue into the frayed thread of models. That is why I usually show the Unisys SST also. I was finding it interesting that the (failed) validation of the models that were predicting a strong and continuing El Nino gets no reaction. Perhaps to be expected when the NOAA site for these forecasts is called the 'El Nino Forecasts' rather than Pacific SST forecasts. Perhaps now we are saving some of these graphics we can create our own skill level assessment From April's forecast and now July's Looks like NASA GMAO is the winning model at the moment ? And we can go back to other statements from previous posts.... <<<SNIP>>>"This ENSO is just starting to power up now, and it will dominate the entire year."
Interesting counterpoint as Joe Bastardi from Accuweather is saying the opposite.
" the peak of this nino seems to a) have been reached earlier than normal and b) did not reach the peak of 06-07, when it Jim Hansen who went nuts on hottest ever."
www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Looks like a validation test coming up <<<SNIP>>>solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=gotopost&board=globalwarming&thread=987&post=40018Well there was a validation and Joe Bastardi's was the correct forecast. I remember someone basing a forecast on 2010 being the hottest year ever on El Nino but that had to be slipped to the Jun 2009 - Jun 2010 year perhaps to make sure the record was claimed before La Nina took over the Pacific?
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Post by hairball on Aug 10, 2010 11:43:24 GMT
From December: Heh, actually, that one was doing pretty good for a while
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Post by steve on Aug 10, 2010 14:40:21 GMT
nautonnier, that Bastardi quote came from mid January when most of the models were saying the same thing about Nino 3.4 (and before the MEI index had peaked - not sure which element of El Niño Bastardi was talking about). Hairball has the Dec model result above which is similar to the Jan, so I won't repeat. Note that Bastardi did jump too early on this though: This was the range of model predictions then (I don't know what NOAA said in October): It's difficult to see much skill in any of these models or predictions beyond "what goes up must come down".
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Post by icefisher on Aug 10, 2010 15:28:24 GMT
Interesting that while posters on this blog are generally dismissive of models/forecasts we've just had a whole page of model forecasts posted. Are some models/forecasts more reliable than others? Or is it just that there are some we happen to like more? GLC these are weather forecasts. They have been being made for years. Skill is developed, not certain, but not totally without established skill as are climate forecasts.
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Post by atra on Aug 10, 2010 19:30:50 GMT
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Post by yohoho on Aug 10, 2010 20:00:36 GMT
^this looks like a respectable la nina. seems like the japan and the nasa model are doing the best.
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Post by hunterson on Aug 11, 2010 11:05:59 GMT
I think people impose regularity to the El Nino/La Nina cycle, when it is apparently more of a random oscillation. But this would not be the only or the first aspect of weather and climate that people of all sorts, especially well educated people, have imposed order on.
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jinki
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 123
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Post by jinki on Aug 12, 2010 6:32:04 GMT
It looks like NINO 3.4 has bottomed for the moment.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 13, 2010 0:38:18 GMT
That IRI ENSO forecast stuff comes from a Rajendra K. Pachauri, chaired international/NGO steered international science body funded from gobs US taxpayer dollars where no accountability exists and they phone back in these charts. "The IRI works on the development and implementation of strategies to manage climate related risks and opportunities. Building on a multidisciplinary core of expertise, IRI partners with research institutions and local stakeholders to best understand needs, risks and possibilities." portal.iri.columbia.edu:8080/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_3911_0_0_18/Whereas the stuff proven more accurate that Atra is posting comes from internal forecasting model work at NOAA where folks actually work on them.
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Post by bsattu on Aug 13, 2010 8:14:25 GMT
So models are crap in crap out. That is what I get for being a programmer.
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Post by hairball on Aug 16, 2010 15:14:23 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Aug 16, 2010 17:39:40 GMT
Here are the Aug 16 CFS Nino3.4 runs: And here is the PDF (probability density function 1981-2006) corrected one: Check back in November and see what came out closest.
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jinki
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 123
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Post by jinki on Aug 17, 2010 0:33:56 GMT
The PDO looking interesting. July figures just in -1.05
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Post by glc on Aug 18, 2010 7:53:33 GMT
The PDO looking interesting. July figures just in -1.05
According to Don Easterbrook the PDO entered it's "negative phase" in 1999
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