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Post by sigurdur on Oct 17, 2010 21:51:51 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Oct 17, 2010 22:14:12 GMT
Gee is that a LIA recovery I see in the data? Oh well! Back to waving hands over the crystal ball! I suppose one could argue an ice age was supposed to have arrived on Steve Schneider's original schedule and killed off over population like the near hairless rodent it is and instead we are prospering under a sheet of anthropogenic life giving gases. Oh! horror of horrors!!! I was chuckling over the Glenn Beck lists of priorities between traditioal and secular religions the other night. Boy did he nail that!! Traditional: 1)man;2)animals;3)plants;4)earth Secular: 1)earth;2)plants;3)animals;4)man |
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 18, 2010 0:09:02 GMT
I was chuckling over the Glenn Beck lists of priorities between traditioal and secular religions the other night. Boy did he nail that!! Traditional: 1)man;2)animals;3)plants;4)earth Secular: 1)earth;2)plants;3)animals;4)man That is Secular greenies, but there are secular humanists who would support the traditional list. I (a "practicing" Christian) had a good atheistic friend who was a consistent humanist. As a humanist, he valued human life & was an anti-abortionist and generally supported all the traditional "Christian Values" which are, in fact, values from a much larger classical tradition. We have lost the Greek-Roman classical tradition that inspired the great men of the 18th & 19th Century. Who today reads Epictetus or the Meditations of Emperor Marcus Aurelius? From Google: "William Pitt (senior) was educated at Eton College, ... There is evidence that he was an extensively read, if not a minutely accurate classical scholar; ? & "Historians have described Pitt as "the greatest British statesman of the eighteenth century." Pitt was opposed to the revolutionary War with Americas & Pittsburgh is named after him. His son became PM after him & was also a classical scholar: "Pitt quickly became proficient in Latin and Greek. In 1773, aged fourteen, he attended Pembroke College (now Pembroke College, Cambridge),[6] where he studied political philosophy, classics," Now, to get back on topic, Marcus Aurelius was a great Emperor, (reign:161 -180 AD) but was faced with the climate change at the end of the Roman warming period: In the first year of his reign, there were floods & famine in Italy, and the Barbarians were on the move. (Biographical Note on his life, Britannica Great Books, Vol 12, page 249, 1952 edition) |
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 18, 2010 1:50:29 GMT
And Quoting from Edward Gibbon (Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire, Brittanica Great Books, Vol 40 1952ed., p86)
"Some ingenious writers have suspected that Europe was much colder formerly than it is at present;" (1776) "and the most ancient descriptions of the Climate of Germany tend exceedingly to confirm their theory. The general complaints of intense frost, and eternal winter, are perhaps little to be regarded, since we have no method of reducing to an accurate standard of the thermometer the feelings or expressions of an orator, born in the happier regions of Greece or Asia. But I'll select two remarkable circumstances of a less equivocal nature, 1. The great Rivers ... the Rhine and the Danube were frequently frozen over, and capable of supporting the most enormous weights .... over a vast and solid bridge of ice....
2. The reindeer ... was a native of the Hercynian forest, which then overshadowed a great part of Germany and Poland."
Gibbon then went on to conjecture why, discussing de-forestation, swamp drainage etc as at his time, but he had no idea of actual climatic forces & cycles.
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Post by poitsplace on Oct 18, 2010 2:00:12 GMT
The general complaints of intense frost, and eternal winter, are perhaps little to be regarded, since we have no method of reducing to an accurate standard of the thermometer the feelings or expressions of an orator, born in the happier regions of Greece or Asia. But I'll select two remarkable circumstances of a less equivocal nature, 1. The great Rivers ... the Rhine and the Danube were frequently frozen over, and capable of supporting the most enormous weights .... over a vast and solid bridge of ice.... These stories exist in many regions and its annoying that climatologists just write them off like they do. In recent times the local rivers where I live have hardly any ice on them at all during the winter...while 100+ years ago they were solid enough at some point in winter that they could support fully loaded wagons. Its stories like this that make me hope like heck that David Archibald's theories are indeed a bit toward the crackpot end of the spectrum. |
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 18, 2010 2:29:30 GMT
My current reading is the "life & Letters of Robert E Lee"
And he describes how at a camp in Texas (before the civil war) his bucket of washing water beside his camp bed had a thick layer of ice over it.
There are many anecdotes from history which can be used to support, or indeed not support, theories of past climatic. Any mention of extreme events by these writers are an indication of how out of the ordinary these things were to get a mention.
Be a fun research project to read though all the old writings.
The sort of people who read these old works (other than me, and I'm very strange! ;D) are seldom informed on climate science, so pass by these references without seeing the significance.
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Post by scpg02 on Oct 18, 2010 6:07:02 GMT
that's why I think science should be interdisciplined. You have Egyptologists saying the age of the Sphinx is one date while the geology says something else. You have climatologists saying past temps were here when a historian could probably point out with certainty that it was not.
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Post by steve on Oct 18, 2010 9:32:23 GMT
Prior to 1600 the MBH98 reconstruction has errors of +/-0.5C, and one of the criticisms of Mann is that these errors are meaningless, and that the use of tree ring proxies is dubious.
This reconstruction has 1/3 tree ring proxies and errors of +/-0.1C!
Is there any sympathy for the view that 1)man; without 2)animals;3)plants and 4)earth, would be a soulless existence?
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Post by byz on Oct 18, 2010 11:55:01 GMT
Prior to 1600 the MBH98 reconstruction has errors of +/-0.5C, and one of the criticisms of Mann is that these errors are meaningless, and that the use of tree ring proxies is dubious. This reconstruction has 1/3 tree ring proxies and errors of +/-0.1C! Is there any sympathy for the view that 1)man; without 2)animals;3)plants and 4)earth, would be a soulless existence? Sorry to be a pain but what is the standard deviation of the errors? As errors are normally down to errors in measurement not the variation across the sample (as my professor at King's college kept drumming into me) size of the population and at least if you have the SD you can see the size of the spread  |
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Post by steve on Oct 18, 2010 14:57:23 GMT
Not sure I follow. Yes you could present a result that assumes that the only error is a measurement error, which is maybe what has been done.
This assumes there are no uncertainties from either the interpretation of the proxy or from assuming that these proxy measurements give a true assessment of the hemispheric anomaly (which are obviously not the case).
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Post by hunterson on Oct 19, 2010 12:40:52 GMT
Prior to 1600 the MBH98 reconstruction has errors of +/-0.5C, and one of the criticisms of Mann is that these errors are meaningless, and that the use of tree ring proxies is dubious. This reconstruction has 1/3 tree ring proxies and errors of +/-0.1C! Is there any sympathy for the view that 1)man; without 2)animals;3)plants and 4)earth, would be a soulless existence? My bet is we will simply find out the latest desperate attempt to defend the HS will be as flawed as the rest. Here is a good rule of thumb: if a hockey stick is the result, the analysis was fixed to get the HS. |
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Post by magnus on Oct 19, 2010 14:23:22 GMT
Here's another paper by Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, The Spatio-Temporal Pattern of the Mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum, showing e.g. this: "We find no indications that support the IPCC (2007) conclusion, to a large degree based on General Circulation Models and Energy Balance Models, that global annual mid-Holocene temperatures were not warmer than today or that the earth during the mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum only experienced increased temperatures during the summer season and on higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. On the contrary, our survey suggests that annual mean temperatures were higher in large areas of the globe in both hemispheres and on all latitudes, although the temperature increase was amplified on high latitudes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. ..."www.medeltid.su.se/Nedladdningar/Poster%20Holocene.pdf |
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 23, 2011 5:11:39 GMT
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Post by hunterson on Feb 23, 2011 14:00:46 GMT
I was chuckling over the Glenn Beck lists of priorities between traditioal and secular religions the other night. Boy did he nail that!! Traditional: 1)man;2)animals;3)plants;4)earth Secular: 1)earth;2)plants;3)animals;4)man That is Secular greenies, but there are secular humanists who would support the traditional list. I (a "practicing" Christian) had a good atheistic friend who was a consistent humanist. As a humanist, he valued human life & was an anti-abortionist and generally supported all the traditional "Christian Values" which are, in fact, values from a much larger classical tradition. We have lost the Greek-Roman classical tradition that inspired the great men of the 18th & 19th Century. Who today reads Epictetus or the Meditations of Emperor Marcus Aurelius? From Google: "William Pitt (senior) was educated at Eton College, ... There is evidence that he was an extensively read, if not a minutely accurate classical scholar; ? & "Historians have described Pitt as "the greatest British statesman of the eighteenth century." Pitt was opposed to the revolutionary War with Americas & Pittsburgh is named after him. His son became PM after him & was also a classical scholar: "Pitt quickly became proficient in Latin and Greek. In 1773, aged fourteen, he attended Pembroke College (now Pembroke College, Cambridge),[6] where he studied political philosophy, classics," Now, to get back on topic, Marcus Aurelius was a great Emperor, (reign:161 -180 AD) but was faced with the climate change at the end of the Roman warming period: In the first year of his reign, there were floods & famine in Italy, and the Barbarians were on the move. (Biographical Note on his life, Britannica Great Books, Vol 12, page 249, 1952 edition) kiwistonewall, You have been away too long. Were you impacted by the disaster in Christchurch at all? Is your family safe? Please let us know. |
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Post by spaceman on Feb 23, 2011 16:03:50 GMT
since it has been a couple of years since the hockey has been made, I was wondering what the new data makes it look like? It should be going up like crazy right ? We haven't curtailed our use of fossil fuels and we are still stuffing the atmosphere with CO2 .
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