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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 6, 2012 19:58:27 GMT
In this graph the Waldmeier effect is not corrected, I think... You are right, I have not corrected for the Waldmeier jump. If you do this the two cycles look even more alike.
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Post by jcarels on Feb 7, 2012 7:46:11 GMT
Since we are comparing cycles, this is my favorite for the moment: Attachments:
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 7, 2012 22:56:04 GMT
Since we are comparing cycles, this is my favorite for the moment: SC10 does not really have the same 'spiky' appearance as SC14. It is not certain that SC24 will have a spiky structure, just looks like that [to me, at least]. It may depend on whether the SSN becomes zero tomorrow. There were no zero-SSN days near maximum of SC10: .
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Post by jcarels on Feb 8, 2012 14:26:53 GMT
SC10 does not really have the same 'spiky' appearance as SC14. It is not certain that SC24 will have a spiky structure, just looks like that [to me, at least]. It may depend on whether the SSN becomes zero tomorrow. I know, but is looks a lot like SC24. That's why I posted it. For the moment we can't say that SC24 will be "spiky". Chances are small that the SSN will be zero tomorrow. The AR in the northern hemisphere will still be on the visible side. It's not yet numbered by NOAA. However I'm not sure it will be active enough to have spots tomorrow as it is already shrinking. There are also 2 sunspots trying to from on the southern hemisphere.
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Post by justsomeguy on Feb 8, 2012 18:22:30 GMT
What are you predictiing for length? I really want to get to the minima so we can see where we go from there, SC25 is the big tell in the minima argument, methinks.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 8, 2012 18:51:47 GMT
SC10 does not really have the same 'spiky' appearance as SC14. It is not certain that SC24 will have a spiky structure, just looks like that [to me, at least]. It may depend on whether the SSN becomes zero tomorrow. I know, but is looks a lot like SC24. That's why I posted it. For the moment we can't say that SC24 will be "spiky". Chances are small that the SSN will be zero tomorrow. The AR in the northern hemisphere will still be on the visible side. It's not yet numbered by NOAA. However I'm not sure it will be active enough to have spots tomorrow as it is already shrinking. There are also 2 sunspots trying to from on the southern hemisphere. The official provisional SIDC SSN is 9
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 8, 2012 18:52:29 GMT
What are you predictiing for length? I really want to get to the minima so we can see where we go from there, SC25 is the big tell in the minima argument, methinks. cannot predict length, except to say that low cycles are usually long.
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Post by randwick on Feb 10, 2012 0:33:13 GMT
. Tend to agree , cycle comparison is a bit of intelectual self abuse , we have only fragmentary data on a 200 years grand cycle lot of hypothesis and so few certainties only thing to do is wait and watch the sun is no stanger to thowing curved ball we might still get a big surprise
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timb
New Member
Posts: 45
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Post by timb on Feb 14, 2012 19:17:29 GMT
1419 looks high on the latitude and also appears to be magnetically reversed. Are anomalous reversals (I forget what the technical name is for a magentically reversed sunspot) usually higher latitude than conventional spots?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 14, 2012 19:22:28 GMT
1419 looks high on the latitude and also appears to be magnetically reversed. Are anomalous reversals (I forget what the technical name is for a magentically reversed sunspot) usually higher latitude than conventional spots? 3 to 4% of all spots are reversed, with no particular rules for when.
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Feb 24, 2012 13:49:34 GMT
Filament Eruption
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Mar 5, 2012 13:20:54 GMT
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Post by openended on Mar 6, 2012 3:52:15 GMT
Hi Kevin et al,
1429 is reversed. what does that mean?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 6, 2012 5:40:01 GMT
Hi Kevin et al, 1429 is reversed. what does that mean? It just means it has turned, rotated, and twisted. Such regions are prolific producers of flares.
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Post by openended on Mar 6, 2012 6:27:52 GMT
Hi Kevin et al, 1429 is reversed. what does that mean? It just means it has turned, rotated, and twisted. Such regions are prolific producers of flares. the polarity reverses at the cycle maximum. would we see some reversed regions as evidence of that starting?
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