Impressive proton flare. Biggest since December 2006, I believe.
It should be interesting to see the CME impact. It was mentioned previously on this site that Mar/Apr and Sep/Oct are prime seasons for geomagnetic storms (based the Earth's axial tilt providing a better "capture cross-section").
With this latest CME, do we expect the magnetic polarity to be negative (southward)? Anyone know of a good website that provides predictions involving polarity and strength?
On spaceweather they say; Although the CME is not squarely Earth-directed, it appears direct enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 8-9. And on solarham you say;The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). Spaceweather have been posting a lot of faulty information lately and despite of several mails on my behalf have not either replied or corrected their errors.
Impressive proton flare. Biggest since December 2006, I believe.
It should be interesting to see the CME impact. It was mentioned previously on this site that Mar/Apr and Sep/Oct are prime seasons for geomagnetic storms (based the Earth's axial tilt providing a better "capture cross-section").
With this latest CME, do we expect the magnetic polarity to be negative (southward)? Anyone know of a good website that provides predictions involving polarity and strength?
Dr. Svalgaard has in the past, albeit informally. For example, some quotes regarding previous flares:
"The current storm is not of a magnitude that compares with the real 'superstorms'... From the polarities of the spots I would guess the field would be northwards at the leading edge followed by weak southward several hours later, so the storm would start small and perhaps stay small: Kp = 5-6."
"That should mean that initially the geomagnetic storm will not be very strong. Whether it later strengthens depend on how much the southward field on the ‘backside’ of the magnetic cloud is compressed. So, I predict a moderate storm only."
"Time to make some prediction: since the magnetic field in 1158 points roughly northwards [white is out, black is into the Sun], the CME should be born with a leading edge that has northwards field."
Looks like a pretty solid hit from the WSO link (http://solarham.com/cmewatch2.htm). In the plasma concentration blowup, there are peak "white" areas on both sides of Earth and for radial velocity, the portion hitting Earth is solid white.
That surprises me, because I thought east-side flares weren't geo-effective, although discussions I've read previously do a poor job at providing distinction between the optimal location for flare protons following magnetic field lines (e.g. 45W) vs the CME cloud propagation in general.
Regarding this particular flare, I'd be interested in the thoughts of an expert...
Looks like a pretty solid hit from the WSO link (http://solarham.com/cmewatch2.htm). In the plasma concentration blowup, there are peak "white" areas on both sides of Earth and for radial velocity, the portion hitting Earth is solid white.
That surprises me, because I thought east-side flares weren't geo-effective, although discussions I've read previously do a poor job at providing distinction between the optimal location for flare protons following magnetic field lines (e.g. 45W) vs the CME cloud propagation in general.
Regarding this particular flare, I'd be interested in the thoughts of an expert...
The protons follow the magnetic field lines so like 45W for maximum effect, but the CME can be wide, 50-90 degrees, so can hit us even if off 45W.
