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Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 6, 2012 11:30:12 GMT
It just means it has turned, rotated, and twisted. Such regions are prolific producers of flares. the polarity reverses at the cycle maximum. would we see some reversed regions as evidence of that starting? No, the reversed region is not form cycle 25. 3% of all regions are reversed.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 6, 2012 11:30:34 GMT
It just means it has turned, rotated, and twisted. Such regions are prolific producers of flares. the polarity reverses at the cycle maximum. would we see some reversed regions as evidence of that starting? No, the reversed region is not from cycle 25. 3% of all regions are reversed.
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Mar 6, 2012 14:13:21 GMT
NOAA AR1429, Last 48 hr
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Post by openended on Mar 6, 2012 23:25:59 GMT
the polarity reverses at the cycle maximum. would we see some reversed regions as evidence of that starting? No, the reversed region is not form cycle 25. 3% of all regions are reversed. ok thx isvalgaard, i needed another "expert" opinion:)
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Post by woodstove on Mar 7, 2012 2:42:24 GMT
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timb
New Member
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Post by timb on Mar 7, 2012 7:23:56 GMT
Hi Kevin et al, 1429 is reversed. what does that mean? It just means it has turned, rotated, and twisted. Such regions are prolific producers of flares. You probably shouldn't have said that. Being right a lot sometimes is a bad thing.
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Mar 7, 2012 10:51:03 GMT
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Mar 7, 2012 13:53:12 GMT
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Post by solarlux on Mar 7, 2012 14:27:33 GMT
Impressive proton flare. Biggest since December 2006, I believe.
It should be interesting to see the CME impact. It was mentioned previously on this site that Mar/Apr and Sep/Oct are prime seasons for geomagnetic storms (based the Earth's axial tilt providing a better "capture cross-section").
With this latest CME, do we expect the magnetic polarity to be negative (southward)? Anyone know of a good website that provides predictions involving polarity and strength?
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Post by kalohux on Mar 7, 2012 15:53:23 GMT
On spaceweather they say; Although the CME is not squarely Earth-directed, it appears direct enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 8-9. And on solarham you say;The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). Spaceweather have been posting a lot of faulty information lately and despite of several mails on my behalf have not either replied or corrected their errors.
Which one is correct? Solarham or spaceweather?
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Post by kalohux on Mar 7, 2012 15:57:48 GMT
Impressive proton flare. Biggest since December 2006, I believe. It should be interesting to see the CME impact. It was mentioned previously on this site that Mar/Apr and Sep/Oct are prime seasons for geomagnetic storms (based the Earth's axial tilt providing a better "capture cross-section"). With this latest CME, do we expect the magnetic polarity to be negative (southward)? Anyone know of a good website that provides predictions involving polarity and strength? They can't predict that.
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Post by solarlux on Mar 7, 2012 16:35:23 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard has in the past, albeit informally. For example, some quotes regarding previous flares: "The current storm is not of a magnitude that compares with the real 'superstorms'... From the polarities of the spots I would guess the field would be northwards at the leading edge followed by weak southward several hours later, so the storm would start small and perhaps stay small: Kp = 5-6." "That should mean that initially the geomagnetic storm will not be very strong. Whether it later strengthens depend on how much the southward field on the ‘backside’ of the magnetic cloud is compressed. So, I predict a moderate storm only." "Time to make some prediction: since the magnetic field in 1158 points roughly northwards [white is out, black is into the Sun], the CME should be born with a leading edge that has northwards field."
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Post by solarlux on Mar 7, 2012 16:49:16 GMT
Which one is correct? Solarham or spaceweather? Looks like a pretty solid hit from the WSO link (http://solarham.com/cmewatch2.htm). In the plasma concentration blowup, there are peak "white" areas on both sides of Earth and for radial velocity, the portion hitting Earth is solid white. That surprises me, because I thought east-side flares weren't geo-effective, although discussions I've read previously do a poor job at providing distinction between the optimal location for flare protons following magnetic field lines (e.g. 45W) vs the CME cloud propagation in general. Regarding this particular flare, I'd be interested in the thoughts of an expert...
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Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 7, 2012 17:30:21 GMT
Which one is correct? Solarham or spaceweather? Looks like a pretty solid hit from the WSO link (http://solarham.com/cmewatch2.htm). In the plasma concentration blowup, there are peak "white" areas on both sides of Earth and for radial velocity, the portion hitting Earth is solid white. That surprises me, because I thought east-side flares weren't geo-effective, although discussions I've read previously do a poor job at providing distinction between the optimal location for flare protons following magnetic field lines (e.g. 45W) vs the CME cloud propagation in general. Regarding this particular flare, I'd be interested in the thoughts of an expert... The protons follow the magnetic field lines so like 45W for maximum effect, but the CME can be wide, 50-90 degrees, so can hit us even if off 45W.
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Post by kalohux on Mar 8, 2012 1:01:21 GMT
I think the prediction for strong flares are wrong. I precict the chance for M-flares to be 5% and the chance for X-flares to be 1% the next 24 hours.
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