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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2011 19:37:59 GMT
HI all. Might as well keep the board fresh with a discussion of Milankovitch Theory.
My 1st question is:
There are still questions about exactly how changes in the earth's orbit affect the climate, and especially in why the climatic changes match in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
While Milankovitch is a cor-relation, actual causeations is still lacking. Does the mutual changes in the North and Southern Hemisphere discredit this theory?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2011 20:46:24 GMT
Does the change in the magnetic field during this cycle have an effect on the earth's climate?
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Post by scpg02 on Jul 23, 2011 22:14:40 GMT
Does the change in the magnetic field during this cycle have an effect on the earth's climate? yes, there is some evidence for interaction between the solar and earth magnetic fields plus the change in the solar wind also has an effect on climate enough to show up in tree rings.
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Post by stranger on Jul 24, 2011 19:11:12 GMT
While correlation is not proof of causation, and we have not been observing long enough to have a 5 sigma or greater confidence of a link between the earth's and sun's magnetic fields; there is an observed correlation to a greater than 3 σ level of confidence. At present, a ten thousand to one probability that the correlation is more than chance is good enough for a preliminary finding.
Of course, we have those proxies those who deny the connection between the earth and the sun deny. To which I will only observe there is still an active flat earth society.
Milankovich Cycles are a horse of another hue. At the moment, it is no more than a hypothesis. The observations are lacking, the arguments are often unconvincing, and the proxies do not seem to exist. At least to any greater extent than so much moonshine. So while the Mcycles are an interesting concept, they must be give a Scots verdict. Not proven.
Stranger
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Post by sunsettommy on Jul 26, 2011 4:38:52 GMT
While correlation is not proof of causation, and we have not been observing long enough to have a 5 sigma or greater confidence of a link between the earth's and sun's magnetic fields; there is an observed correlation to a greater than 3 σ level of confidence. At present, a ten thousand to one probability that the correlation is more than chance is good enough for a preliminary finding. Of course, we have those proxies those who deny the connection between the earth and the sun deny. To which I will only observe there is still an active flat earth society. Milankovich Cycles are a horse of another hue. At the moment, it is no more than a hypothesis. The observations are lacking, the arguments are often unconvincing, and the proxies do not seem to exist. At least to any greater extent than so much moonshine. So while the Mcycles are an interesting concept, they must be give a Scots verdict. Not proven. Stranger It has been verified to be a theory now. You need to read up on the book.I have that book in my library: ICE AGES: solving the mystery books.google.com/books/about/Ice_ages.html?id=GIxRp9fRDGwCAdditional information:
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Post by sunsettommy on Jul 26, 2011 4:40:05 GMT
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Post by sunsettommy on Jul 26, 2011 4:47:24 GMT
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Post by glc on Jul 26, 2011 9:32:33 GMT
Of course, we have those proxies those who deny the connection between the earth and the sun deny
Is that the connection that has broken down since 1980.... or the one that now needs multi-decadal lags to prop it up .... or the one that uses a quite bizarre data filtering technique ... or the connection that simply isn't there.
Here's a connection for you:
Lowest Solar Activity (since 2005) for more than 100 years = Highest Temperatures for more than 100 years.
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Post by stranger on Jul 26, 2011 19:22:07 GMT
You can write as many books, and publish as many formulas as you like. But without empirical evidence, you cannot advance a hypothesis to a theory. You think, you believe, but you cannot prove a hypothesis without evidence any more than a detective can prove who killed Madame X with neither a body or witnesses.
Lacking physical evidence, the best the detective can say is that Madame X is no longer in her usual haunts. And the best the Milankovich enthusiast can say is the formulas - may - demonstrate such and such.
How nice. For those who take authors money to publish books intended for popular consumption. Books of the sort that had Nibiru destroying the Earth on July 7.
Stranger
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 28, 2011 0:52:33 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 28, 2011 1:14:53 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Jul 28, 2011 2:48:15 GMT
Of course, we have those proxies those who deny the connection between the earth and the sun denyIs that the connection that has broken down since 1980.... or the one that now needs multi-decadal lags to prop it up .... or the one that uses a quite bizarre data filtering technique ... or the connection that simply isn't there. Here's a connection for you: Lowest Solar Activity (since 2005) for more than 100 years = Highest Temperatures for more than 100 years. Still looking forward to a youtube of yourself turning a battleship in 8-10 seconds, glc. That one will go viral, for sure!
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Post by throttleup on Jul 28, 2011 23:26:44 GMT
Of course, we have those proxies those who deny the connection between the earth and the sun denyIs that the connection that has broken down since 1980.... or the one that now needs multi-decadal lags to prop it up .... or the one that uses a quite bizarre data filtering technique ... or the connection that simply isn't there. Here's a connection for you: Lowest Solar Activity (since 2005) for more than 100 years = Highest Temperatures for more than 100 years. Still looking forward to a youtube of yourself turning a battleship in 8-10 seconds, glc. That one will go viral, for sure! glc has a battleship? That explains a lot!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 28, 2011 23:38:30 GMT
throttleup: Yah.......but it is a smaller one. Why, it can turn the corner in less than 1/20th of a knautical mile. I mean..make a full 90 degree turn.....and if ya give it a few more meters it will do a 180. The only drawback are the large waves generated as it turns. The screaming of the crew as it lists, the faces agast with wonder at how this can happen. Mass inertia and all that. Espcially on those really hot oceans. WE are warming on up..or .....is that moving on up?
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