Early Signs of SPRING

[sigurdur]

Hope byz is doing ok. It is nearly spring here on the Upper Great Plains.....so time to start thinking of the big garden......and the small one as well.

[Ratty]

Feb 19, 2012 3:39:19 GMT sigurdur said:

Hope byz is doing ok. It is nearly spring here on the Upper Great Plains.....so time to start thinking of the big garden......and the small one as well.

Good gardening Sig .... our (little) veggie garden was almost washed away by last month's rains (525mm, 21 inches) .............

[glennkoks]

sigurdur, when do you normally start planting? And how is this years mild winter and increasing drought going to effect your decision making process?

[sigurdur]

Glenn:
The old rule of thumb is April 20th or so. Some years are earlier, lately it has been much later. The lack of measureable precip is somewhat nagging, however, Jan is not a large snow month as a rule.
The forcast is for some snow tomorrow, we will see. April showers bring May flowers is an old saying......we shall have to wait and see how those April showers develop.

The long range forcast should be out on Tues.......I will be makeing more concrete decissions based on this at that time. I may cut my soybean acres, as the last forcast indicated a dry July/Aug period. August is a crucial time for soy pod fill etc.

I would replace these acres with wheat as it has the ability to root deeply, and we do have subsoil moisture in this area.

[sigurdur]

Well, a little bit of moisture fell yesterday. The shift that normally happens in latter Feb/March does seem upon us.

[sigurdur]

Ok.....spring snows.......bring out shovels..........

And spring snows cool off the temperature...............

And I just looked at AMSU temps and whoaaaaaaaaa........not a good sign!

[sigurdur]

Just got in from a bit of shoveling. Appears that there was approx 8" of snow in the yard. The fields have a little bit of cover. The 30mph+ winds blew most of the "open" snow into the shelterbelts tho.........
This is the reason that I would much rather have rain as it hydrates the whole field, rather than the edges.

[glennkoks]

I'm currently about 3 hours west of Edmonton, Alberta and we just got 16 cm of snow in 24 hours. The 7th biggest february snowfall on record. They were in drought prior so I think they were glad to get it.

[sigurdur]

Glenn:
I am sure they are glad to get it. 3 hours should put you at the base of the Rocky Mountains, and it for sure has been dry there.

I am not sad that we got snow, but it will now hold the temps at seasonal levels rather than the nice warmth we had earlier.

And as expected, Mid-late Feb in my area is when we start picking up precip as the seasons are starting to change to spring. We shall see if the La Nina is still going to over ride the NAO........which now looks likely. So potentially, a cold wet spring again.

[glennkoks]

sigurdur, I am in a town called Edson near the ski resort of Jasper. Funny thing is there were burn bans going into effect on March 1st. I am not sure if the current snow is going to change that but it will certainly help. Hopefully you will get the precip you need for a prosperous year.

As a farmer and a keen observer of the weather what can you expect for your region with the combination of a negative phase of both the PDO and AMO?

[sigurdur]

Glenn:
One would expect cooler than average temps for starters. We have been cooling quite dramatically on a decadal average for the past 18 years. While this winter was warmer than average to date, we had a switch in the past week. It seems that we live in approx 6 week cycles up here. Note that even before we got the snow of the past few days, I had indicated that moisture should start building as it was that time of year. And it happened as one would expect.

I am still on the fence as far as planting corn in 2012. With minimal summer moisture, a corn crop would be assured as it does root deeply if required. What worries me a bit is temps.

We will have to see what shakes out as planting season gets closer.

[sigurdur]

Here I am, eating dinner, doing a bit of reading as I eat and ran across this.

"As a matter of empirical interest I have been advising farmers for forty years of the pattern of Rossby Waves and their normal migration creating weather patterns that change on a 4 to 6 week basis. Under increased Meridional patterns this becomes an 8 to 10 week change with worryingly long and damaging wet and dry or cold and warm periods"

This was posted on WUWT by Tim Ball on the thread concerning Judith Curry's paper.

Silly me, I had never thought about looking at the pattern of Rossby Waves to see if would cause a cycle. Rest assured that I certainly will.

But by his writing....Tim Ball, this confirms what I wrote above about our "six week" cycle.

Veryyyyyy interesting.

[sigurdur]

More snow tomorrow. Won't reach my area, or at least not much, but the southern RRV basin is going to get 12-16".
Enough snow for winter of 2012 now.......we will gladly accept a few inches of rain in late March and early April.

[glennkoks]

I think the LRC or Lezak's Recurring cycle is just a long term extension of Rossby Waves. There sometimes seems to be a "pattern" but it does not always hold true and I personally doubt much forecasting accuracy can be achieved.

Every now and then you get in that winter pattern where you will get cold fronts every few days like clockwork. And then there are years like this one where cold fronts are rare and don't seem to follow any schedule at all.

[sigurdur]

Little more moisure yesterday. Icy roads today, but bright sunshine. Slightly below normal temperature.......but I am inside so life is good...