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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2015 14:40:45 GMT
Consider this post as one of ignorance seeking enlightenment! Sunglasses imply that I'm hoping for blinding revelations ... but I'll accept whatever comes to mind. What difference(s) does an ice-free or near ice-free arctic make? What are the 'synoptic' characteristics of such a change? If the 1940s were characterized by less arctic ice than today, what happened then (climate wise) that can be logically(?) attributed to that event? Did low pressure drastically change the circulation patterns, etc., etc.? Inquiring minds seriously want to know. You guys are my first choice (complement or laziness?) before I start digging.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 26, 2015 15:12:48 GMT
Consider this post as one of ignorance seeking enlightenment! Sunglasses imply that I'm hoping for blinding revelations ... but I'll accept whatever comes to mind. What difference(s) does an ice-free or near ice-free arctic make? What are the 'synoptic' characteristics of such a change? If the 1940s were characterized by less arctic ice than today, what happened then (climate wise) that can be logically(?) attributed to that event? Did low pressure drastically change the circulation patterns, etc., etc.? Inquiring minds seriously want to know. You guys are my first choice (complement or laziness?) before I start digging. I'd recommend that you read the article on the "Stadium Wave" if you haven't done so already. It shows how and why the Arctic ice changes over time and how that fits into the cyclical pattern of climate change. I haven't found anything which provides a more plausible explanation for the quasi 60-year cycle. judithcurry.com/2013/10/10/the-stadium-wave/
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 26, 2015 18:02:50 GMT
Up to date graph from Real Climate
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2015 19:03:42 GMT
Consider this post as one of ignorance seeking enlightenment! Sunglasses imply that I'm hoping for blinding revelations ... but I'll accept whatever comes to mind. What difference(s) does an ice-free or near ice-free arctic make? What are the 'synoptic' characteristics of such a change? If the 1940s were characterized by less arctic ice than today, what happened then (climate wise) that can be logically(?) attributed to that event? Did low pressure drastically change the circulation patterns, etc., etc.? Inquiring minds seriously want to know. You guys are my first choice (complement or laziness?) before I start digging. I'd recommend that you read the article on the "Stadium Wave" if you haven't done so already. It shows how and why the Arctic ice changes over time and how that fits into the cyclical pattern of climate change. I haven't found anything which provides a more plausible explanation for the quasi 60-year cycle. judithcurry.com/2013/10/10/the-stadium-wave/Thank you duwayne! Just finished my first read through. It is the rare set of authors that can tackle such a complex issue and regurgitate it in such an intelligible fashion as to allow a novice such as myself to easily follow it first read through. For me, this was a marvelous synthesis, which will continue giving on its 20th read through. My sunglass analogy hopes were realized.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 26, 2015 19:17:51 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 26, 2015 19:35:57 GMT
The approach is
Find some natural aspect of the climate that is changing
Create wildly inflated panic claims about how the sky will fall if the change continues and that the change is a symptom of coming catastrophe
Claim the only way to prevent catastrophe is to >>> send money (voluntary or involuntary) to politicians and countries >>> Stop creating anything using energy and let the jobs go to same countries as above >>> Give political power in perpetuity to same politicians as above.
If natural aspect stops cooperating and changes reverse then stop talking about it and choose another one
Repeat.
The gullibles respond to every shout of WOLF!!
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Post by graywolf on Apr 30, 2015 17:40:02 GMT
Bottom of the JAXA pile again today with no real sign of us getting back into the pack any time soon? With last years record breaking Feb KW now filtering into the basin ( after joining with 'the Blob' and keeping PDO firmly positive at the back end of last year) it will be interesting to see its impacts in Beaufort? ( odd pull away from McKenzie basin today?) as it looks like we will face similar next summer from the KW just surfacing off america now?
Export over winter cleared out the Atlantic side of all its 'saved ice' and has left the pole with very young ice over it. Some concentration maps already hint at the weakness when winds place stress over it?
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Post by sigurdur on May 8, 2015 1:14:20 GMT
news.yahoo.com/el-nino-arctic-ice-melt-could-mean-colder-151758379.htmlOSLO (Reuters) - Next winter in Europe could be colder and drier than the previous two mild winters, which drove down gas and power consumption, the chief meteorologist at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon said. Two factors pointed to potentially chillier winter weather - an El Nino phenomenon that could warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, and the melting of the Arctic ice cap.
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Post by graywolf on May 9, 2015 11:08:01 GMT
As the pack was priming for collapse we lost a lot of 'landfast ice' around the shores of the arctic Ocean ( remember seeing the last of the paleo 'landfast' from the NE of Greenland go in 2012?) but more important than that was the Pacific entry into the basin through Bering. We saw flow rates , into the basin, break all previous records in 2007 and every year since we have seen similar warm water incursions running into the basin and out through the Canadian Archipelago ( ever wonder how those channels filled up with ice were able to become ice free in 07'?). This ( and last) year we have the input of 'the blob' as the triple R warmed the PDO waters off the NW USA. With record sized Kelvin waves also smashing into the americas and flowing north we have seen winter anoms in the PDO hit record highs ( not bad for an alleged PDO-ve phase???) and on into Bering ( ever wonder at the low ice there the past winter and the lack of cold in Alaska? ). With the gates into the Basin now cleared of grounded ice through the straights we should expect rapid melt around the alaskan/canadian coasts as this warmed water runs into the shallows and melt there speeds up. Should summer prove as warming for the blob as the past years then that flow of warm into the basin will continue. We have also seen Fram begin emptying the older ice from the Atlantic side of the basin ( most all of the 'saved ice' there from the past two years has now gone) leading to the pole being covered with very thin, young ice.
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Post by sigurdur on May 9, 2015 12:53:46 GMT
Time marches on doesn't it Graywolf? As Captain Larsen said "Where is the ice?"
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Post by acidohm on May 10, 2015 7:42:38 GMT
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Post by graywolf on May 13, 2015 18:55:52 GMT
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Post by acidohm on May 13, 2015 20:14:10 GMT
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Post by douglavers on May 13, 2015 21:59:51 GMT
The article on Arctic Ice was interesting in the context of a weakening [apparently] North [Mid] Atlantic Drift.
1. Ice is getting 'stored' in thick areas - presumably currents and wind. Note that Arctic temperature are now overall below average.
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/mean80n.uk.php
2. Fairly large areas of sea directly exposed to cold air. Really efficient method of losing planetary heat. 3. Petawatts of heat no longer arriving from further South.
This is a recipe for a rather fast ice recovery next winter.
Apart from this, regretfully a large part of Europe may be about to find out what it is like to be on the same latitude as Alaska without the benefit of Gulf heat.
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Post by nonentropic on May 13, 2015 22:39:51 GMT
your absolutely right the exposed water is paradoxically seen as warm by instruments but is the pathway for masses of energy to exit the region. to be fair the temperature metric is the only reasonably populated data metric.
is there a comparable Gulf Stream flux measure? In addition to that if that flux of energy is significant on a world energy basis then the energy that is transported from the tropical gulf to the pole must represent a key world cooler when this flux is high. so the warmth in Europe could be a portent of future cooling.
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