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Post by sigurdur on May 18, 2015 23:10:44 GMT
Meanwhile , back in the Arctic........ Seen the temps across Alaska and N.Canada recently ?( remembering the month). Seen the models for the next 7 days across the basin? Yep, and the Central North America is getting that Arctic Cold. Nino 3.4 temps climate response.
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Post by douglavers on May 19, 2015 3:49:57 GMT
"It is another one of those 'giant' not quite meaning what it says. Yes it is large compared to say Melbourne - but in terms of size compared to the continent of Antarctica it is minute."
Nautonnier, You know more about this than yours truly.
However, if it is minute, why is its fracture regarded as significant?
I thought the formation and breakup of this type of ice shelf was a long duration natural cycle.
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Post by sigurdur on May 19, 2015 4:08:52 GMT
"It is another one of those 'giant' not quite meaning what it says. Yes it is large compared to say Melbourne - but in terms of size compared to the continent of Antarctica it is minute." Nautonnier, You know more about this than yours truly. However, if it is minute, why is its fracture regarded as significant? I thought the formation and breakup of this type of ice shelf was a long duration natural cycle. It is part of the natural cycle.
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Post by graywolf on May 19, 2015 12:42:51 GMT
Meltponding occurring in Beaufort. Very early in the year to be seeing this but the record temps across Alaska explain why we are seeing this?
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Post by nautonnier on May 19, 2015 12:44:44 GMT
"It is another one of those 'giant' not quite meaning what it says. Yes it is large compared to say Melbourne - but in terms of size compared to the continent of Antarctica it is minute." Nautonnier, You know more about this than yours truly. However, if it is minute, why is its fracture regarded as significant? I thought the formation and breakup of this type of ice shelf was a long duration natural cycle. It is a larger version of a glacier calving off into the ocean. It is what happens to ice shelves. People are making a fuss about it because it sounds _huge_ but in relative terms it is small. Strangely with the Arctic they go the other way, take the minimum size of the arctic ice extent this summer then compare it to say the surface area of American States, or Australian states. It is a vast expanse of ice even at the panic attack minima of 5 years ago. I have had the (mis)fortune to have flown from northern Europe to South Atlantic over the sea for 18 hours plus. The world is a lot bigger than the Malthusians would have you think.
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Post by sigurdur on May 19, 2015 13:21:14 GMT
Meltponding occurring in Beaufort. Very early in the year to be seeing this but the record temps across Alaska explain why we are seeing this? Yep, but the current temps there are not "record" temps.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 19, 2015 14:35:13 GMT
Meanwhile , back in the Arctic........ Seen the temps across Alaska and N.Canada recently ?( remembering the month). Seen the models for the next 7 days across the basin? Am I missing something, Mr. Wolf? ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpMight your enthusiasm for the demise of humnaity be misplaced?
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Post by douglavers on May 19, 2015 21:17:41 GMT
Phydeaux
I suspect that the apparent slowing of the Mid-Atlantic Drift is now starting to show. All those petawatts not getting where they are needed.
As you point out, Arctic temperatures are now comfortably below the long term average. We had better hope that the graph gets above that average soon, as otherwise the Arctic Summer this year is going to be drastically shortened. i.e. a very early freeze across the Northern Hemisphere next year.
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Post by graywolf on May 20, 2015 9:04:23 GMT
When did 80N speak for the whole of the basin? Which latitude does the Arctic basin begin at? When does the DMI 80n plot say we ought to expect the area 80N go positive ( eyeballing looks to be day 155?) and by then the forecast torching of Alaska/N.Canada has spread through most all of the basin. The rest of the forums I frequent appear to be getting a tad concerned about the speed that melt across Beaufort is progressing (esp. the early appearance of melt ponding on the flows?) and the forecast for more of the same over the week ( and then Siberia looks to be torched..... not helping with the wildfires already causing such issues). Speaking of wildfires how do folk think the heat and rapid snow melt ongoing in Alaska N.Canada will impact fire season there? Are we to expect the ice around the periphery to dress in black for the season?
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Post by Ratty on May 20, 2015 10:30:37 GMT
When did 80N speak for the whole of the basin? Which latitude does the Arctic basin begin at? When does the DMI 80n plot say we ought to expect the area 80N go positive ( eyeballing looks to be day 155?) and by then the forecast torching of Alaska/N.Canada has spread through most all of the basin. The rest of the forums I frequent appear to be getting a tad concerned about the speed that melt across Beaufort is progressing (esp. the early appearance of melt ponding on the flows?) and the forecast for more of the same over the week ( and then Siberia looks to be torched..... not helping with the wildfires already causing such issues). Speaking of wildfires how do folk think the heat and rapid snow melt ongoing in Alaska N.Canada will impact fire season there? Are we to expect the ice around the periphery to dress in black for the season? GW, if you go looking for "concern" on forums, you'll find it, in spades. I prefer to look for positive signs.
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Post by slh1234 on May 21, 2015 8:32:59 GMT
When did 80N speak for the whole of the basin? Which latitude does the Arctic basin begin at? When does the DMI 80n plot say we ought to expect the area 80N go positive ( eyeballing looks to be day 155?) and by then the forecast torching of Alaska/N.Canada has spread through most all of the basin. The rest of the forums I frequent appear to be getting a tad concerned about the speed that melt across Beaufort is progressing (esp. the early appearance of melt ponding on the flows?) and the forecast for more of the same over the week ( and then Siberia looks to be torched..... not helping with the wildfires already causing such issues). Speaking of wildfires how do folk think the heat and rapid snow melt ongoing in Alaska N.Canada will impact fire season there? Are we to expect the ice around the periphery to dress in black for the season? You'll have to excuse me for expressing some of my thoughts plainly. We used to be told the story of the little boy who cried wolf, but on here, we have the little crying graywolf boy. Last year, we had all the breathlessness, including all the extra question marks ( ??), multiple exclamation points (!!!!!), and "eyeballing" as we breathless "concerns," "Fears," and "worries" about the super-El-Nino that the most respected (sic) model assured us was coming. We waited, and watched, but it didn't come. I'm just too tired to try to go back from the "Woo-Woo!!! All aboard the Fram Express" post to see how many fears, worries, and concerns for a totally ice-free arctic we've seen from our little wide-eyed, wooting, Graywolf boy up to this point. But do observations ever slow down the excessive use of exclamation points, one-sided eyeballing, endless search for another model to bring about fears and excessive use of question marks, and quotes from other fear-mongering forums that precipitate the use of yet another question-mark after the question that is used to convey the next "fear" or "concern?" I would suggest, to calm those pinky fingers which twitch excessively when they reach for the ? or the !, you back off of the models for a bit, and just explore your own posts here, and see how many of your fears, worries, and concerns have born out anything like what you have worried about. Surely our perception can't be that wrong. I think that may give you a starting point that is within yourself in expressing concerns. You may find that nothing you worry about ever actually happens. I just get this mental image of a little kid jumping up and down in a breathless dither expressing fear about the boogie man just outside the door who must be there, because Butch, the tough guy next door, insisted he was there. You know, What's gonna happen if he busts through that door and eats our heads?
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Post by graywolf on May 21, 2015 9:04:54 GMT
JAXA still lowest of the pile and it looks like mid June before we can hope for any change?
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Post by Ratty on May 21, 2015 10:37:31 GMT
JAXA still lowest of the pile and it looks like mid June before we can hope for any change? "lowest of the pile" ...... Doesn't that show the inaccuracy inherent in satellite observations, GW?
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Post by duwayne on May 21, 2015 15:53:42 GMT
JAXA still lowest of the pile and it looks like mid June before we can hope for any change? Graywolf, your post is very reassuring. You post the scariest global warming stories you can find on the sites you visit and if shrinking sea ice is the worst problem, then.... .....we don't have much to worry about. In past months you posted that the PDO was very high and I would agree that is of concern, but since you didn't post last months results, I assume it must mean that the PDO is falling fast. That's also good news.
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Post by throttleup on May 22, 2015 20:36:33 GMT
Terrifying, ain't it? :-)
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