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Post by juancarnuba on May 25, 2015 16:48:22 GMT
Just so I'm clear here, after the 07' record crash we saw two years of 'rebound' and then what came next? So we have had two years of rebound post the 2012 crash so what comes next? EDIT: Took a look at Nevens and saw this; This short note is about Arctic volume where I was so irritated at a claim on some "geek" blog that it has "stabilized and even recovered slightly" since 2006 that I sat down and typed in the Hamilton numbers. I do hope this admittedly very small contribution (such as it is) from me is useful (a) so people can copy and paste into Comments on websites that do not allow images and (b)I did compute and include decadal averages. Caution: it is NOT true that the Arctic has "stabilized" (let alone improved) since 2006. It's important to remember that volume of ice depends on both its area and its thickness, and thickness has a long term decreasing trend. Here are the hard numbers for Volume, showing more than HALF of ice volume has been lost (Sept. minimum annual ice volume for each year) since the "stabilization" of 2006: Minimum Arctic sea ice volume, in thousands of km^3 (cubic kilometers) From Larry Hamilton with PIOMAS data: 1979: 16.9 1980: 16.1 1981: 12.6 1982: 13.4 1983: 15.1 1984: 14.5 1985: 14.5 1986: 15.9 1987: 15.2 1988: 14.9 1989: 14.6 1990: 13.7 1991: 13.5 1992: 14.9 1993: 12.2 1994: 13.6 1995: 11.2 1996: 13.7 1997: 13.2 1998: 11.5 1999: 10.9 2000: 11.0 2001: 12.2 2002: 10.8 2003: 10.2 2004: 9.9 2005: 9.2 2006: 9.0 2007: 6.5 2008: 7.1 2009: 6.8 2010: 4.6 2011: 4.3 2012: 3.7 2013: 5.4 1980s average: 14.68 1990s average: 12.84 2000s average: 9.27 2006 level: 9.0 2010-2014 average: is (4.6+4.3+3.7+5.4+6.8)/5 = 4.96 This 4.96 (2010-2014 5-YEAR AVG.) average is: *** A 66% decrease from the 1980s average *** A 61% decrease from the 1990s average *** A 47% decrease from the 2000s average ** And compared to 2006 when things supposedly "stabilized"? A 45% loss comparing the last five years' volume with that of 2006. For more background, see Neven Acropolis' blog on Typepad, and also the excellent skepticalscience website for more science, and science rebuttals of common myths. Graywolf: Can you imagine the hysteria that would have developed during the Holocene Climate Optimum if they had today's tech?
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Post by juancarnuba on May 25, 2015 16:52:08 GMT
Maybe I'm missing something but, if the area of the area of the Artic Ocean is 14,056,000 sq. km, how can the area of sea ice exceed that?
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Post by nautonnier on May 25, 2015 17:22:37 GMT
The continual use of the high point of 1979 as the start point when the ice was measured by satellite from 1976 when it was considerably lower than 1979, demonstrates the kind of figure fiddling that climate science is continually engaged in. It is unbelievable that these start dates are chosen accidentally by people ignorant of the figures.
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Post by acidohm on May 25, 2015 19:58:35 GMT
Maybe I'm missing something but, if the area of the area of the Artic Ocean is 14,056,000 sq. km, how can the area of sea ice exceed that? Is the definition of artic ocean that it is the bit which gets frozen? I don't know but suspect it varies.....
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Post by graywolf on May 26, 2015 10:54:36 GMT
Depending on agency 'Arctic Sea ice' includes areas outside the basin itself ( Bering ,Baffin, Okhotsk, Hudson and into the NW European sector in Barrentsz) so 'max extent' can or not, include exterior areas heavily dependent on local conditions ( like the ice factory in Bering at the end of 2012 melt season?)
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Post by Ratty on May 26, 2015 23:19:58 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 27, 2015 2:41:45 GMT
What is the old saying about being in the "Middle of the Pack"?
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Post by nonentropic on May 27, 2015 4:26:08 GMT
Fair Sig, recent pack but center for sure. more of an issue is the El Nino progress because the fall when it terminates will be 1C and if it lift 1C before, that's fine, but if that does not happen you and others will be unhappy in 18 months.
How do you sleep?
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Post by graywolf on May 27, 2015 9:15:27 GMT
NSISC give us a record date for the drop below 12 million. We have beaten 2006 by 5 days. With forecasts not looking good for the foreseeable we had better settle ourselves for an active melt pond year ( and what this tells us about final figures) this season?
I'm still not convinced that we are not seeing a very early return to the 'perfect melt storm ' synoptic shaping up. i know the two prior to 07' had dropped the spacing to ten years but could ongoing changes have shifted that down to 8 years??? In a warming world we are told to expect ever more frequent extreme events ( heatwaves/1 in a hundred year rain events etc.) so why not across the fastest changing part of the planets surface?
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Post by flearider on May 27, 2015 9:34:31 GMT
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Post by graywolf on May 27, 2015 19:03:42 GMT
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Post by flearider on May 27, 2015 23:22:28 GMT
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Post by throttleup on May 29, 2015 2:19:48 GMT
flearider, I think you're supposed to look UNDER the ice.
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Post by graywolf on May 30, 2015 11:16:00 GMT
Boy! it's beginning to look a lot different to 13'/14' out there a.t.m. I have to wonder if the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' has shortened its return time from 10yrs ( for the 2 before 07') to 8 years??? Beaufort certainly seems to be hinting at that? As we enter June are we about to see a 'cliff' as area/extent respond to the crazy temps around the peripheries. Seeing as only the central arctic basin took positive volume anoms into melt season ( thinner ice for all other regions) it is probably the worst possible start with all ice areas around Central Basin shedding ice allowing warm water to dominate the central pack over the bottom melt end of the season. It would have been a lot better for the peripheries to have stayed cold over May/June and so protect the thicker central pack.
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Post by fredzl4dh on Jun 10, 2015 13:41:12 GMT
Surly if this has been going on for as long as this book talks about it must be natural variance and this is real observational science before politics ruled and models became evidence. www.archive.org/stream/arcticice00zubo#page/n0/mode/2up This is a book Digitized by the US navy and archived.Ice receded by 20mts between1880 1902 LITERATURE: 27, 58, 62, 77. Section 162. Warming of the Arctic Along with the fluctuations in ice abundance in each individual sea from year to year, in late years a most interesting phenomenon has been observed-a warming of the arctic, as evidenced by a gradual and universal decrease in ice abundance. The main evidences of this general warming of the arctic are: 1. Receding of glaciers and "melting away" of islands. According to the testimony of Wegener, all the Greenland glaciers which descend into Northeast Bay and Disko Bay, have been receding since approximately the beginning of the present century. In particular the Jakobshavn glacier receded about 20 m during the period 1880 to 1902. As has already been mentioned, the glaciers of these two bays produce the main mass of the Greenland icebergs. Receding of glaciers during recent years has likewise been observed on Spitzbergen, Franz Joseph Land, and Novaya Zemlya. On Franz Joseph Land during recent years several islands have appeared as if broken in two. It turned out that they had been connected up to that time by ice bridges. During voyages on the Perseus in 1934 and the Sadko in 1935, I carefully compared the descriptions of glaciers on Jan Mayen and Spitzbergen in some English sailing directions of 1911 with what I observed and everywhere I noted a great decrease in size of glaciers. Ahlman explored the glaciers of Spitzbergen in 1934 and found that these glaciers are now melting faster than they grow on account of fall of snow. Ahlman terms the rapid receding of the Spitzbergen glaciers "catastrophic." Sumgin informed me that the southern boundary of permafrost in Siberia is everywhere receding northward. In 1837 this boundary, for example, ran somewhat south of the town of Mezen and was found at a depth of 2 m. In 1933 the Academy of Sciences Expedition found this boundary at the village of Semzha 40 km further north. The washing away of the Lyakhoskiye Ostrova and the disappearance of Vasilevski Ostrov in the Laptev Sea belong to the same type of phenomena. 2. Rise of air temperature. Since 1920 the average temperature of the winter months has steadily increased on the coasts of Baffin Bay, the Greenland Sea (Jacobshavn), Spitzbergen, Bear Island, Barents and Kara Seas. Even in the winter of 1928-29, when there was bitter cold in Europe, the winter temperature on Spitzbergen and Bear Island was only slightly under normal. Vize points out that at Vardo (northeast Norway) the average annual air temperature starting with 1918 is higher than the average for the century. The year 1926 represents an exception with temperature lower than normal by 0.2°. Starting with 1930, Zubov, N. N. (Nikolai Nikolaevich), 1885-1960. Arctic ice (Kindle Locations 11828-11843). San Diego, Calif., U.S. Navy Electronics Laboratory.
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