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Post by graywolf on Feb 12, 2018 12:32:35 GMT
Well i'm concerned about the possible 'double whammy' of low solar forcing driving Northern blocking coupled with this SWW leading to northern blocking.
Whilst this may ( and at the moment it is a 'may') stop WAA into the Atlantic side of the basin it also promotes settled , clear skies for the start of melt season and all other notable loss years saw high melt ponding in early melt season and carried high melt momentum into the middle/later melt season?
Last low solar we saw a perfect melt storm, as sunspot numbers waned, a record volume drop at solar min in 2010 and then 2012 as sunspots were slowly returning?
Is the solar cycle why 'The perfect melt storm' respects a 10 to 20 year period?
This SSW is again surprising the 'experts' by its behaviours with near records/records being broken as it develops. Such behaviours always trouble me as I have to ponder where the added energy to drive such extreme expressions comes from?
Back to today.
JAXA put on a measly 22 thousand over the last 3 days keeping firmly at the bottom of the pack with only 5% of the refreeze season remaining.
Whatever the weathers we know that a repeat of last years cool/cloudy melt season will still lead to a bottom 5 minimum and I'm no fan of hoping for repeats in weather patterns over the basin as that would tend to support high melt weather patterns and not just low melt? The one thing the past 5 low melt years have had in common is the ascent to high solar, now we are into the low end of the solar cycle?
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Post by icefisher on Feb 12, 2018 16:03:07 GMT
Well i'm concerned about the possible 'double whammy' of low solar forcing driving Northern blocking coupled with this SWW leading to northern blocking. Whilst this may ( and at the moment it is a 'may') stop WAA into the Atlantic side of the basin it also promotes settled , clear skies for the start of melt season and all other notable loss years saw high melt ponding in early melt season and carried high melt momentum into the middle/later melt season? Last low solar we saw a perfect melt storm, as sunspot numbers waned, a record volume drop at solar min in 2010 and then 2012 as sunspots were slowly returning? Is the solar cycle why 'The perfect melt storm' respects a 10 to 20 year period? This SSW is again surprising the 'experts' by its behaviours with near records/records being broken as it develops. Such behaviours always trouble me as I have to ponder where the added energy to drive such extreme expressions comes from? Back to today. JAXA put on a measly 22 thousand over the last 3 days keeping firmly at the bottom of the pack with only 5% of the refreeze season remaining. Whatever the weathers we know that a repeat of last years cool/cloudy melt season will still lead to a bottom 5 minimum and I'm no fan of hoping for repeats in weather patterns over the basin as that would tend to support high melt weather patterns and not just low melt? The one thing the past 5 low melt years have had in common is the ascent to high solar, now we are into the low end of the solar cycle? I am curious about what you said in your 2nd through 5th paragraphs. For some reason I am not processing the question marks. I suppose I could add a 6th. Perhaps extremely low summer melt last year in relationship to record low winter extent produced a paucity of fresh water with its high refreezing temperature to spur the following refreeze?
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 12, 2018 23:42:43 GMT
The arctic is the energy tailpipe of the world and we understand little of the dynamics of a low refreeze season and the consequent energy jettisoned by the planet.
I do have AGW concerns but the gulf stream takes the tropical energy to the arctic and clearly nobody understands this process, plenty of theories but no real system understanding.
GW you have been wrong before I take no pleasure from that as I have been arguably more wrong in the past but this is a story unfolding before us for the first time with any real data, my only real criticism is that you seek a confirmational outcome and that is risky from a credibility perspective. So your commentary should be observational not load with biased prediction.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 13, 2018 2:24:49 GMT
The arctic is the energy tailpipe of the world and we understand little of the dynamics of a low refreeze season and the consequent energy jettisoned by the planet. I do have AGW concerns but the gulf stream takes the tropical energy to the arctic and clearly nobody understands this process, plenty of theories but no real system understanding. GW you have been wrong before I take no pleasure from that as I have been arguably more wrong in the past but this is a story unfolding before us for the first time with any real data, my only real criticism is that you seek a confirmational outcome and that is risky from a credibility perspective. So your commentary should be observational not load with biased prediction. I agree. One observation is that average summer ice extent has shrunk a lot more than average winter ice extent over the past 25 years. Therefore, refreeze extents in recent years have been much larger on average than before 25 years ago. It would seem to follow that we should expect more variation as a result, making predictions far more unreliable. I thought the video from Prager University by William Happer did a great job of explaining what the difficulties are with the models and predictions based upon simple concepts.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 13, 2018 14:46:17 GMT
From the Nature paper, the current swing in Arctic Sea Ice is nothing exceptional. There actually is nothing new to see here,in regards to ice.
SSW? Past events are much harder to quantify.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 13, 2018 16:19:04 GMT
Well i'm concerned about the possible 'double whammy' of low solar forcing driving Northern blocking coupled with this SWW leading to northern blocking. Whilst this may ( and at the moment it is a 'may') stop WAA into the Atlantic side of the basin it also promotes settled , clear skies for the start of melt season and all other notable loss years saw high melt ponding in early melt season and carried high melt momentum into the middle/later melt season? Last low solar we saw a perfect melt storm, as sunspot numbers waned, a record volume drop at solar min in 2010 and then 2012 as sunspots were slowly returning? Is the solar cycle why 'The perfect melt storm' respects a 10 to 20 year period? This SSW is again surprising the 'experts' by its behaviours with near records/records being broken as it develops. Such behaviours always trouble me as I have to ponder where the added energy to drive such extreme expressions comes from? Back to today. JAXA put on a measly 22 thousand over the last 3 days keeping firmly at the bottom of the pack with only 5% of the refreeze season remaining. Whatever the weathers we know that a repeat of last years cool/cloudy melt season will still lead to a bottom 5 minimum and I'm no fan of hoping for repeats in weather patterns over the basin as that would tend to support high melt weather patterns and not just low melt? The one thing the past 5 low melt years have had in common is the ascent to high solar, now we are into the low end of the solar cycle? Im not sure extra energy is required for larger SSW, in fact, perhaps there's less energy?? The event is afterall a disruption of normal, stabilised conditions, suggesting theyre unstable?? Like a vortexes of spinning water in a glass...loses its structure as it slows down....
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 13, 2018 16:37:13 GMT
Well i'm concerned about the possible 'double whammy' of low solar forcing driving Northern blocking coupled with this SWW leading to northern blocking. Whilst this may ( and at the moment it is a 'may') stop WAA into the Atlantic side of the basin it also promotes settled , clear skies for the start of melt season and all other notable loss years saw high melt ponding in early melt season and carried high melt momentum into the middle/later melt season? Last low solar we saw a perfect melt storm, as sunspot numbers waned, a record volume drop at solar min in 2010 and then 2012 as sunspots were slowly returning? Is the solar cycle why 'The perfect melt storm' respects a 10 to 20 year period? This SSW is again surprising the 'experts' by its behaviours with near records/records being broken as it develops. Such behaviours always trouble me as I have to ponder where the added energy to drive such extreme expressions comes from? Back to today. JAXA put on a measly 22 thousand over the last 3 days keeping firmly at the bottom of the pack with only 5% of the refreeze season remaining. Whatever the weathers we know that a repeat of last years cool/cloudy melt season will still lead to a bottom 5 minimum and I'm no fan of hoping for repeats in weather patterns over the basin as that would tend to support high melt weather patterns and not just low melt? The one thing the past 5 low melt years have had in common is the ascent to high solar, now we are into the low end of the solar cycle? Im not sure extra energy is required for larger SSW, in fact, perhaps there's less energy?? The event is afterall a disruption of normal, stabilised conditions, suggesting theyre unstable?? Like a vortexes of spinning water in a glass...loses its structure as it slows down.... I remember there was an article posted here some time back identifying the source area of such air masses as Mongolia? Launch mechanism still unknown? Genghis's revenge.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 13, 2018 18:01:18 GMT
Im not sure extra energy is required for larger SSW, in fact, perhaps there's less energy?? The event is afterall a disruption of normal, stabilised conditions, suggesting theyre unstable?? Like a vortexes of spinning water in a glass...loses its structure as it slows down.... I remember there was an article posted here some time back identifying the source area of such air masses as Mongolia? Launch mechanism still unknown? Genghis's revenge. Yes - I posted the article. It was showing that SSW were formed by a meridonal jetstream running up over the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau and the 'orographic' uplift results in the jetstream rising through the low winter troposphere then breaking like a wave in the stratosphere and flowing back down reversing the flow of the polar vortex. (or multiple pages to that effect )
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Post by acidohm on Feb 13, 2018 18:53:00 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 13, 2018 21:46:40 GMT
So that's how rubbing noses began.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 13, 2018 23:51:27 GMT
Yikes !! Lock up your brass monkeys !!
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Post by Ratty on Feb 14, 2018 0:18:52 GMT
Brass Monkey 1/2 oz rum 1/2 oz vodka 4 oz orange juice Toss the rum and vodka together and stir gently. Pour in the orange juice, and shake well. Pour over ice in a highball or tall glass. Too much OJ, Code.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 14, 2018 1:52:17 GMT
Brass Monkey 1/2 oz rum 1/2 oz vodka 4 oz orange juice Toss the rum and vodka together and stir gently. Pour in the orange juice, and shake well. Pour over ice in a highball or tall glass. Too much OJ, Code. I must admit - replace the OJ with whiskey (or whisky) or even tequila.... This has a close relationship to the 'two hat cure'. Go to bed, put your hat at the foot of the bed then drink the rum/vodka/whiskey mix until you can see two hats. A cure-all.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 14, 2018 2:00:01 GMT
I must admit - replace the OJ with whiskey (or whisky) or even tequila.... This has a close relationship to the 'two hat cure'. Go to bed, put your hat at the foot of the bed then drink the rum/vodka/whiskey mix until you can see two hats. A cure-all. I've avoided tequila even since that mockingbird incident. sorry
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 14, 2018 2:09:45 GMT
Brass Monkey 1/2 oz rum 1/2 oz vodka 4 oz orange juice Toss the rum and vodka together and stir gently. Pour in the orange juice, and shake well. Pour over ice in a highball or tall glass. Too much OJ, Code. I think he simply mixed up the amounts of Vodka vs OJ. Easy fix.
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