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Post by Ratty on Feb 25, 2018 11:57:14 GMT
[ Snip ] <Cringe>. Why is it coming up from the South? Well if you're the Arctic there are very few other directions it can come from Hmmmm ..... Why is it coming up from the South?
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 25, 2018 12:52:36 GMT
[ Snip ] <Cringe>. Why is it coming up from the South? Well if you're the Arctic there are very few other directions it can come from Hmmmm ..... Why is it coming up from the South? Strange coming from someone down-under I suppose the SSW is actually coming _down_ from above, the heat is coming <sigh> from the South and then departing up (out?) to space.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 25, 2018 13:10:17 GMT
Well if you're the Arctic there are very few other directions it can come from Hmmmm ..... Why is it coming up from the South? Strange coming from someone down-under I suppose the SSW is actually coming _down_ from above, the heat is coming <sigh> from the South and then departing up (out?) to space. Sudden Stratospheric Warming? Coming down?
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Post by graywolf on Feb 25, 2018 13:26:17 GMT
Don't know about that Rats? Look at the DMI site for Cape morris Jesup since the 23rd?
That was minus 16C up to plus 6.1c without any help from the south.....
Talking of DMI80N it has just broken the record departure from the average that was set in Autumn of 2016...... before we see the forecast above freezing pulse run across it from Fram out to chukchi....
As you all know I was quite concerned at the evolution of the 'crackopalypse' feb events since 2013. The ice did not seem to suffer this last year ( low FDD's/thickness allowing thew ice to be less brittle?) This year we have seen retreats at the ocean entrances ( like bering through early Feb) and 'lift offs' from the coast ( lack of shorefast ice). Over the last week the whole of the north shore of Greenland 'lifted off' the shore allowing the sudden temp leap we see at cape Morris Jesup. We have only two successful areas to speak of this year, Baffin due to Nares not ice bridging this year and exporting thick basin ice out into it and Okhotsk being on the other side of that which destroyed Bering. The coming high temps and storms will see warm salty water mixed up, via ekman pumping as the lows pass overhead potentially beginning bottom melt even at the pole? Not the end to melt season even I could have foreseen!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2018 16:04:45 GMT
Graywolf: The melting really can't come fast enough. The reduction of CO2 emissions by cargo ships taking a shorter route is enormous!
The sad thing is, the release of heat to actual outer space via the SSW events is rapidly cooling earth. That will result in ever growing ice packs again, much as the end of the 1940's period did.
The result is a general cooling worldwide.
I love ND proxies. I have read enough paleo papers that clearly show this cycle. In the Arctic, there are also proxy based data that show this cycle.
The slight increase in CO2 isn't enough to stop what is happening. The open question remains, WILL the Holocene continue to mimic MIS-11. Or are we on the slippery slope of the start of an ever growing ice sheet over the central area of North America?
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 27, 2018 14:53:14 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 27, 2018 16:19:08 GMT
Meridional Flow in the mid-1800s. notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/02/28/polar-vortex-common-in-the-19thc/Climate History and the Modern World (pdf) ens9004-mza.infd.edu.ar/sitio/upload/08-%20LAMB,%20H.H.%20-%20LIBRO%20-%20Climate,%20History%20and%20the.pdf MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY IN THE UNITED STATES The climate of the period from the 1830s to the 1860s in the United States has been investigated by Eberhard Wahl13 and associates at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using a network of official weather station records which included the earliest of their kind from the middle of the continent. The results showed a climate that was colder than the 1931–60 averages over the eastern and central parts of the country by between 1 and 2 °C in the interior in each season of the year and by over 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) in the early autumn. In the 1850s and 1860s, for which data extend to the Pacific coast, it is seen that the mountain states were on the other hand up to 1 °C warmer than in 1931–60, up to 1.5 °C in spring, summer and early autumn. Precipitation was around 20 per cent greater than in recent times over the same area, but in winter the north-south belt of up to 40 per cent greater down-put of rain and snow lay over the Middle West. This distribution makes it clear that, as we also deduced for the sixteenth-and seventeenth-century climax of the Little Ice Age, the wind circulation was more meridional (with fewer west winds) than in the twentieth century. In particular, there must have been more northerly winds over the eastern and central parts of North America and more southerly winds over the west. But some changes of longitude of the main features of the pattern must have taken place; for the waggoners trekking out west to California in 1849 found the Middle West a virtual desert.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 5, 2018 12:52:18 GMT
The three days up to the 4th have seen 70K losses on JAXA's extent plot?
A lot of this has come from Baffin with the nor'easter taking its toll on the ice.
With Two more nor'easters in the forecast this seems set to be the norm for the coming week. With Okhotsk another areas that is peripheral but saw, courtesy of Berings heat, good growth this year we may well already be past ice max ( March 1st) for the year as losses in Baffin/Okhotsk make it difficult for the 70K to be made up?
The smashed ice on the Atlantic ice edge has also led to gains in Greenland Sea but , again, we know where this ice is destined to end up so we may well be logging losses there by the end of the week.
If we have past Max then a very slow start to melt season will ensue.
Normally we watch all the peripheral ice taken before ice melt begins inside the basin. This year we only have Okhotsk and Baffin to watch and both have begun their break up and float off start to melt?
If low solar is tied to 'perfect melt storms' then this would be the worst kind of ice to present it with!
With early refreeze sealing in heat and then poor thickening ( due to record warmth) we have a very poor pack this time that is possibly another record low extent?
The only positive I can see is that we were in a run of La Nina's last time we saw low solar and this year looks likely to be a warm La Nada?
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 5, 2018 15:57:44 GMT
Not only moving but weakening. The earth's magnetic field diminishes to zilch before a polarity reversal.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 5, 2018 16:26:13 GMT
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110000429History of sea ice in the Arctic Author links open overlay panelLeonidPolyakaRichard B.AlleybJohn T.AndrewscJulieBrigham-GrettedThomas M.CronineDennis A.DarbyfArthur S.d**egJoan J.FitzpatrickhSvendFunderiMarikaHollandjAnne E.JenningscGifford H.MillercMattO'RegankJamesSavellelMarkSerrezejKristenSt. JohnmJames W.C.WhitecEricWolffn Show more doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.010Get rights and content Abstract Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past. This information can be provided by proxy records from the Arctic Ocean floor and from the surrounding coasts. Although existing records are far from complete, they indicate that sea ice became a feature of the Arctic by 47 Ma, following a pronounced decline in atmospheric pCO2 after the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Optimum, and consistently covered at least part of the Arctic Ocean for no less than the last 13–14 million years. Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2–3 million years, in accordance with Earth's overall cooler climate. Nevertheless, episodes of considerably reduced sea ice or even seasonally ice-free conditions occurred during warmer periods linked to orbital variations. The last low-ice event related to orbital forcing (high insolation) was in the early Holocene, after which the northern high latitudes cooled overall, with some superimposed shorter-term (multidecadal to millennial-scale) and lower-magnitude variability. The current reduction in Arctic ice cover started in the late 19th century, consistent with the rapidly warming climate, and became very pronounced over the last three decades. This ice loss appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 5, 2018 16:27:58 GMT
Yep, everything gets turned upside down. The South Pole becomes the North Pole.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 5, 2018 16:43:37 GMT
Perhaps I'm misinterpreting. Are the authors implying that polar shift is being affected by "surface mass redistribution" between land and ocean? How small must that mass be in relation to the whole. We compute the variations in polar motion from the changes in Earth’s inertia tensor caused by the climate-driven surface mass redistribution (see Materials and Methods). Would it not more likely be the other way around? Could this be another example of what Astromet has stated about "calling the effects 'causes' "? Or is my brain all muddled up?
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 5, 2018 22:02:34 GMT
Perhaps I'm misinterpreting. Are the authors implying that polar shift is being affected by "surface mass redistribution" between land and ocean? How small must that mass be in relation to the whole. We compute the variations in polar motion from the changes in Earth’s inertia tensor caused by the climate-driven surface mass redistribution (see Materials and Methods). Would it not more likely be the other way around? Could this be another example of what Astromet has stated about "calling the effects 'causes' "? Or is my brain all muddled up? Hey Bary!!
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Post by douglavers on Mar 6, 2018 5:45:01 GMT
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpLittle spike in Arctic temperature did not last long. Oh well, remains above long term average so we are still losing more planetary heat than normal.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 6, 2018 7:50:56 GMT
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpLittle spike in Arctic temperature did not last long. Oh well, remains above long term average so we are still losing more planetary heat than normal. I've been wriggle-watching for a very loooooong time. Could I be correct in observing that sea ice extent/area bears a direct relationship to Arctic temperature? For example, temperature is falling (DMI) and extent is falling. I seem to think that I have observed this and the reverse ** on numerous occasions over the years. Is there a latent heat < of something> in play? Be kind .... ** temp and extent rising in concert
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