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Post by acidohm on Mar 6, 2018 10:22:19 GMT
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpLittle spike in Arctic temperature did not last long. Oh well, remains above long term average so we are still losing more planetary heat than normal. I've been wriggle-watching for a very loooooong time. Could I be correct in observing that sea ice extent/area bears a direct relationship to Arctic temperature? For example, temperature is falling (DMI) and extent is falling. I seem to think that I have observed this and the reverse ** on numerous occasions over the years. Is there a latent heat < of something> in play? Be kind .... ** temp and extent rising in concert I postulated this idea many moons ago, but tbh I don't know what the energy balance regarding large quantities of ice v atmosphere is?? Regardless, I'm extremely confident the recent arctic warming was a direct result of the European cooling. As the high pressure built over Scandinavia, it formed a southerly wind up the Atlantic into the polar region. So as warmist wring their hands with glee and get to proclaim the coming apocalypse...what there missing is all that temperate heat going out the back door. I've even seen articles stating the warming in the arctic caused the cooling in Europe which is total nonsense. One question I'm interested in.... SSW causes an increase in temperature due to compression of the air mass as described in the laws of thermodynamics. Is this heat then lost to space or do the temperatures only reduce once the air mass stabilises at its previous volumn??
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Post by graywolf on Mar 6, 2018 11:05:22 GMT
As we saw on the north shore of Greenland some of that heat goes into melting ice! ( 70cals for a 1cm cube of ice)
JAXA has seen a 130K fall over the last 4 days placing us back into bottom place. On average we only have 1.0% of the refreeze season left and so not enough time ( I think) to recover the current max of March 1st?
The Nor'easter's waves impacted both the Caribbean and S. America so imagine what they did to the ice in Baffin???
Last year a storm flushed nearly all the beached bergs out of that basin and into the N.Atlantic leading to shipping warnings and the flottila being avoided. If a summer storm can lift off and float away remnants of Glacial calvings then what will it have done to the 1 to 2m ice that was in baffin and how much of it will be heading south?
Feb's PIOMAS is also out and is a solid second lowest.
We probably now have a slow 6 weeks in front of us as there is not much of the normal peripheral ice in the basin that usually feeds the losses in early melt season. This does not mean the basin ice will not be undergoing preconditioning to melt be it mechanical weathering as swells push under the ice from the open ocean fronts or melt ponding on the ice if we see clear skies and sun.
I'm sure the guy's at NSIDC are also looking at the numbers and wondering if max has been reached. As we all know cold in the DMI 80N does not affect the peripheral areas and ice cover is complete under that area. The best we can hope is for thickening of ice? It is really quite amazing to see folk becoming so frantic about a measure actually heading down to its 'average' for the time of year??? Maybe things have changed?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 6, 2018 16:36:36 GMT
I've been wriggle-watching for a very loooooong time. Could I be correct in observing that sea ice extent/area bears a direct relationship to Arctic temperature? For example, temperature is falling (DMI) and extent is falling. I seem to think that I have observed this and the reverse ** on numerous occasions over the years. Is there a latent heat < of something> in play? Be kind .... ** temp and extent rising in concert I postulated this idea many moons ago, but tbh I don't know what the energy balance regarding large quantities of ice v atmosphere is?? Regardless, I'm extremely confident the recent arctic warming was a direct result of the European cooling. As the high pressure built over Scandinavia, it formed a southerly wind up the Atlantic into the polar region. So as warmist wring their hands with glee and get to proclaim the coming apocalypse...what there missing is all that temperate heat going out the back door. I've even seen articles stating the warming in the arctic caused the cooling in Europe which is total nonsense. One question I'm interested in.... SSW causes an increase in temperature due to compression of the air mass as described in the laws of thermodynamics. Is this heat then lost to space or do the temperatures only reduce once the air mass stabilises at its previous volumn?? The majority of the heat is lost to space because in the Arctic the troposphere is so shallow. Also, because of the colder temperatures, the H2O vapor is lower and can't absorb the heat. Further south, H2O vapor ACTUALLY absorbs energy. There is CO2 in the Arctic, but it is virtually meaningless as the volume (ppmv) is so low that the small amount of reflection doesn't amount to a hill of ice.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 6, 2018 16:39:08 GMT
As we saw on the north shore of Greenland some of that heat goes into melting ice! ( 70cals for a 1cm cube of ice) JAXA has seen a 130K fall over the last 4 days placing us back into bottom place. On average we only have 1.0% of the refreeze season left and so not enough time ( I think) to recover the current max of March 1st? The Nor'easter's waves impacted both the Caribbean and S. America so imagine what they did to the ice in Baffin??? Last year a storm flushed nearly all the beached bergs out of that basin and into the N.Atlantic leading to shipping warnings and the flottila being avoided. If a summer storm can lift off and float away remnants of Glacial calvings then what will it have done to the 1 to 2m ice that was in baffin and how much of it will be heading south? Feb's PIOMAS is also out and is a solid second lowest. We probably now have a slow 6 weeks in front of us as there is not much of the normal peripheral ice in the basin that usually feeds the losses in early melt season. This does not mean the basin ice will not be undergoing preconditioning to melt be it mechanical weathering as swells push under the ice from the open ocean fronts or melt ponding on the ice if we see clear skies and sun. I'm sure the guy's at NSIDC are also looking at the numbers and wondering if max has been reached. As we all know cold in the DMI 80N does not affect the peripheral areas and ice cover is complete under that area. The best we can hope is for thickening of ice? It is really quite amazing to see folk becoming so frantic about a measure actually heading down to its 'average' for the time of year??? Maybe things have changed? What folks are becoming frantic? I must be reading the wrong blogs etc. Have not noticed any sense of alarm at all.
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 6, 2018 19:52:15 GMT
Frantic is an emotional response. This is an issue relating to science I believe so post the response to the bin!
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Post by douglavers on Mar 6, 2018 20:23:24 GMT
I have this belief that the only metric that really matters is what the satellites are saying about global temperatures. These are now only about 0.2 degC above the 30 year average. My amateur eyes say the graph is pointing downwards!! Even Blind Freddy might say "What global warming?" if that figure goes negative later this year. www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 6, 2018 21:49:41 GMT
I have this belief that the only metric that really matters is what the satellites are saying about global temperatures. These are now only about 0.2 degC above the 30 year average. My amateur eyes say the graph is pointing downwards!! Even Blind Freddy might say "What global warming?" if that figure goes negative later this year. www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/If cornered by the "facts", General Fraud and the troops will have no choice but to fight ... or flee for the hills.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 6, 2018 23:15:26 GMT
Well the last extreme MJO excursion saw our beast from the east' , a big SSW and above freezing in the central basin.
GFS has just posted another extreme move for the MJO.
All the carnage that the last major excursion drove did so at a less than 4 s.d. shift from the norm?
The latest forecast shows an above 5 s,d, excursion from the norm??? a One in three and a half million chance.....
The less than 4 s.d. excursion saw a broad spread of above zero temps in the high Arctic.
This came from the atmospheric angular momentum chucking the polar jet high into the Arctic ( with the WAA on the south of the jet?)
So how far could the jet be flung from the energy an over 5 s.d. deviation from the average brings???
I see a swing getting that extra push that throws it over the top......
And the planet is spinning.....
To see the kind of wonkiness in the polar jet as we have become accustomed to seeing in the polar night jet ( polar vortex) is just mental!!
The first plot on the GFS MJO plot is for the 6th of March.
It was a shunt of over 2 s.d.'s from the norm.
We will find out tomorrow if it verifies.
The 7th of March is outside the graph....
I realy have to consider the polar jet being hoisted over the pole and mimicking the behaviour of the PV?
African WAA for the NW of europe?
20c in early March for Edinburgh?
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Post by Ratty on Mar 6, 2018 23:17:14 GMT
Frantic is an emotional response. This is an issue relating to science I believe so post the response to the bin! One day, stuck in traffic on a freeway and needing a toilet, I reached frantic then moved on to panic. An off-ramp provided an emotional release.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 7, 2018 14:33:58 GMT
Well JAXA down again. that's 147K in losses this last 5 days? March 1st as ice max looking a bit more sure now? Seems most of our hemisphere is without a polar Jet? earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=0.97,92.44,311 Just the sub tropical Jet between us and the ITCZ? So do we have a big polar cell and no ferrel cell or a big ferrel cell and no polar cell? The only part of the polar Jet not merging with the sub tropical Jet is the arm feeding Bering all its warmth......
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Post by acidohm on Mar 7, 2018 16:41:04 GMT
Well JAXA down again. that's 147K in losses this last 5 days? March 1st as ice max looking a bit more sure now? Seems most of our hemisphere is without a polar Jet? earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=0.97,92.44,311 Just the sub tropical Jet between us and the ITCZ? So do we have a big polar cell and no ferrel cell or a big ferrel cell and no polar cell? The only part of the polar Jet not merging with the sub tropical Jet is the arm feeding Bering all its warmth...... Wow, dya think this due to the huge drop in global temperatures recently???
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 8, 2018 15:30:19 GMT
Well JAXA down again. that's 147K in losses this last 5 days? March 1st as ice max looking a bit more sure now? Seems most of our hemisphere is without a polar Jet? earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=0.97,92.44,311 Just the sub tropical Jet between us and the ITCZ? So do we have a big polar cell and no ferrel cell or a big ferrel cell and no polar cell? The only part of the polar Jet not merging with the sub tropical Jet is the arm feeding Bering all its warmth...... Wow, dya think this due to the huge drop in global temperatures recently??? As I point out in another thread - Joe Bastardi thinks that the temperature drop in the Arctic could continue forcing the Global Average Temperature (cough) down.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 10, 2018 14:31:37 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Mar 10, 2018 16:24:06 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 10, 2018 17:08:15 GMT
Perhaps it is me, but I do not see a huge amount of skill in those models vs observations. It is always difficult assessing forecasts weathers against the analyzed weathers. I would like to see the same data/model comparison with a polar view. It seems that the models were closer for land but not for oceans including the Arctic. The Arctic is now plunging in temperature quite rapidly so all that 'heat' that was there has left the planet.
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